a few thoughts on the preakness day big pick 4

[covelj70]

just a few quick thoughts on the big late pk 4 and then some of the other stakes on the undercard.

Affirmatif seems vulnerable as heavy chalk in the first leg of the late pick 4 where most of my dollars will go for the day.  Pretty short run to the turn and alot of speed parked inside him.  He will have to be hard used early and he got caught in his last in a similar situation.  Race Shapes seems to favor Beacon Hill Road who has kept good company but is slow on the TGs and Col Rutlegde who looks great on the sheets with his dirt figures.  Note that he has a half who ran well on the turf so I think he\'s got a big shot.  I think its a spread race but I will play the 4 and 5 for a larger dollar amount than the rest of the field

I think Torpedo Run offers very good value and could mix up the pot in the 10th.  His figs are competitive with the favs, he\'s never taken a step backward, gets a little weight and is a closer shortening up, an angle I love.  I will use the obvious ones in here as well with Silver Edition, Ravalo and Ah Day on my tickets but will look to create some value with Torpedo on my bigger dollar amount ticket.

Race 11 is an absolutely fabulous race.  Love this one.  Only big stand I can take here is that proudinsky has only ever run 2 big races, both on soft ground at the fair grounds and other than that, has been overhyped (much to my wallet\'s dismay).  I know the rail was dead on derby day but he\'s disappointed pretty much everywhere other than FG.  On my deeper tickets for lower dollar amounts, I will spread with Monba, Parading, Kiss the Kid, Stike a Deal and Lauro.  I will play Stike the Deal, Kiss the Kid and Lauro for bigger dollar amounts as Strike the Deal usually runs his number off the layoff and his last was just a monster effort at Aqd.  He got the time off you need from an effort like that and could fire huge off the shelf.  Kiss the Kid has kept good company with his last two losses to Kip and Big Brown and he has some big back figs to run back to and is well rested.  Lauro is a freaky sort who comes off the shelf firing with big efforts.  This may be too short for him (he ran his first lifetime race at a 1 3/16th for goodness sakes, think we would ever see that in the states) but hes\' really fast so I will use him just in case.

I think the big race is an open an shut case so I will single Rachel on my big tickets and maybe play $1 savers with POTN, Big Drama, General Quarters and Take the Points.  I don\'t like any of the others in here.  Agree with many on the board that MM and PC are 0-2-x.  FF has never run fast enough to win before and while he may run better than the derby, a new lifetime top off that effort would be a surprise.  I think Mine that Bird will bounce and Pimlico isn\'t as conducive to the big come from behind jobs that we see at CD (at least when calvin is in the irons).  Think the others are all too slow to talk about.

In the 7th, Dynaforce looks like a big play against.  She\'s giving weight, coming off a layoff with Billy probably having bigger plans for her down the road and not as fast as some of the others when adjusted for weights save for the one effort at the spa last year. I love the 3, Shytoe Lafeet at 10-1 in this race with the weight break and coming around back to the top which, with the weight would put her right there.  I will also use Quiet Meadow and Tejida and try to keep Dynaforce out of the exacta.

The 8th looks like a two horse race with Taquarb looking set to run back to his big top and Nuclear Wayne fast with a good pattern so I will use those 2 only in the early pk 4.

good luck to everyone

[TreadHead]

I am really pulling my hair out over the 10th.  I was looking at the same 4 you were, but this just seems to have all the makings of a race where I kill myself over having the rest of the pick 4 nailed and not spreading enough in the race I felt the worst about.  I\'m not sure how deep I will end up going (are there .50 pick4s?), but this race really gives me the creeps.

[analizethis]

No kidding, I\'m already six deep in this one and have left off Proudinsky and the Sheppard and Leparoux horse (28% win% and 2.84 roi)

[flushedstraight]

9th - Heros Image, Colonel Rutledge, Code of Honour, Affirmatif
10th - ALL  
11th - Parading
12th - Rachel A
4x8x1x1 = 32 combos

it was either singling Rachel or going 6 deep in the Freakness

Parading had the decent 12 race/12 month campaign ending last year running his top on 3 different tracks and on fast, good & yielding turf, but he couldn\'t break through. He comes back this year off the long rest and breaks through first out and then explodes on the poly. Maybe he\'s just plain faster now.

[miff]

Cov,

Whats all the hate for Affirmati.Kinda over confidently ridden in last and lost ground both turns. Kee was not kind to grass speed all meet.The only ones looking competitive on TG figs are dirt horses(except Heros Image)

Strange how many tossing this one, I read him a semi-TG layover.

Good luck


Mike

[covelj70]

I will use him but try to beat him on the bigger dollar tickets.  Don\'t hate him but if he\'s really going to be even money with the way race shapes is setting up, I think there\'s reason to take a stab against him.

[toppled]

Here are my thoughts on parts of the Pimlico card:

1st:Malibu Joe is a bet against.  He beat a bad group in a race restricted to 3 year olds.  Now he\'s giving weight to the fastest, most consistent horse, Storms Past, who was claimed by a high percentage win off the claim trainer.  #2 Storm Past in the 1st.
 
5th: I\'m going to take a flyer that Polish Dynamite beats the Thoro Pattern and pairs in spite of the pattern & the added weight.  Playing p4
7,8/3,5,9,11/3/1,2,3,6,7,9 .  Boxing 5/7/8 in a bombs away exacta.

7th: Betting against Dynaforce with Shytoe Lafeet.  Using All Is Vanity, Tejida & Dynaforce in exactas with Shytoe.  

11th: I like Strike a Deal to come back running.  I\'ll be using Big Drama, Friesan Fire, Pioneerof the Nile & Rachael Alexandra in DDs & p3s if the odds on Strike a Deal warrant spreading in DDs.  I might save on Mine That Bird if it rains.  

12th: I can\'t play the Preakness by itself since I feel this is more of a spread race and not a pick a horse & bet race.

13th: I\'m playing a single in my picks & if Strike a Deal doesn\'t win, I\'ll be putting a win bet in on #8 Whitehouse Ridge.  High % FTS trainer & sire.  Home bred is out of the best sire in this race.

[richiebee]

Scheduling changes have mandated that I wager about four times a month rather
than four times per week. Does that affect my wagering approach? To quote a
certain politician who will get another chance to ruin our country in four
years,\"You Betcha\".

Late Pick 4:

Very little tolerance for odds on faves in this sequence.

R9 Woodlawn -- I like others will toss the 3/5 ML Pletcher Affirmatif. I think
there will be a lot of pace in this race, which will seemingly benefit second
choice (6/1 ML) Beacon Hill Road. Although he is one of the few in the race
who has yet to hang up a single digit TG, he has kept very good company in his
turf races. DRF has trainer Jason Servis with a 30% strike rate in grass races.
Gets Leparoux. Others: Colonel Rutledge (10/1) and Mr Keeper (12/1) are each
turf winners with a bit of stakes experience.

R10 Maryland Sprint Cap -- A few weeks ago, when the Carter Hcp was the ROTW, JB
pointed out Ah Day\'s gappy race record. This will be AD\'s fourth race in a nine
week span, he is 5/7 lifetime at the distance, and he is arguably the fastest
in the race off his TGs. 5/2 ML with Gomez seems generous, singling.

R11 Dixie -- Will try four here, but my key is the improving Wesley at 8/1.
Also using Kiss the Kid and the two runners coming out of the Ben Ali, Parading
and Monba. If Proudinsky scratches I will toss in Musketier who goes for that
crafty Canadian, Roger Attfield.

R12 Preakness -- POTN and Freisan Fire are both in good hands. Admittedly they
need to move forward AND have Rachel bounce or encounter bad racing luck or
both.

Interesting comment from LF on the other board regarding fillies and mares
coming off big tops. Although the survey was not large, and did not involve
many 3YOs, LF said a bounce of 6 - 10 points from RA is a possibility but you
have to know a lot more about the Rag #s than I do to evaluate this data.

P4 $3 456/5/2347/59 = $72

Might make a saver P4 using the 3 keys -- Beacon Hill Road, Ah Day and Wesley--
with RA.

[richiebee]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
 
> R9 Woodlawn -- I like others will toss the 3/5 ML
> Pletcher Affirmatif. I think
> there will be a lot of pace in this race, which
> will seemingly benefit second
> choice (6/1 ML) Beacon Hill Road. Although he is
> one of the few in the race
> who has yet to hang up a single digit TG, he has
> kept very good company in his
> turf races. DRF has trainer Jason Servis with a
> 30% strike rate in grass races.
> Gets Leparoux. Others: Colonel Rutledge (10/1) and
> Mr Keeper (12/1) are each
> turf winners with a bit of stakes experience.


UPDATE: Beacon Hill Road (vet scratched again?) and Colonel Rutledge (running
at Woodbine?) are SCRATCHED from the Woodlawn.