Musket Man

[Silver Charm]

Jimbo,

I said as a Saver. To cover all of the \"Lets Try And Beat The Favorite Plays\" we will be making.

Besides I do not think she will be as heavily bet as everyone else does because of so much Bounce Pessimism. I actually think on the Friday early wagering she will look a little dead on the board and then as you get closer to race time her odds will drop but I do not see anything less than 2-1 and I think a lot of Exotic Tickets will be leaving Her Out.

The Sheets Rule The Tote.........

[MonmouthGuy]

Silver.

With all due respect, the \"bounce pessimism\" will not be felt by the bettors formerly known as Pimilico infield drunks, nor the average bettor who picks up the DRF and notes that she has fired 5 straight 100+ Beyers.

I think you may see 4-5 on her by post time.

[jimbo66]

Silver,

I was just joshing you.  I am not much of a \"saver\" kind of bettor.  All or nothing for me.

You could be right about Rachel\'s odds though.  I have been factoring even money into my analysis for the race.  However, if you look at the \"public handicappers\" on the DRF and all the other prognosticators, almost nobody is picking Rachel.  4 of the 6 guys on the DRF are picking Big Drama.  I have only seen one selection of Rachel and it is from Dave Litfin, who IMO ranks in the bottom 1% of handicappers.  I get sleepy still when I think of the season he was given $50 a day to bet on Saratoga and day after day I watched him box the two favorites.  Steven Crist mentioned today in his blog that as he has talked to his contacts, he has heard as high as 3-1 and as low as 6-5.  I would have thought lower.  My range would have been 4-5 to 6-5.  However, projecting odds in the major races is very tough.  Lots of people who don\'t normally gamble, play the triple crown races.

To be a master of the obvious, Rachel becomes much less of a \"bet against\" IMO if she goes off close to 2-1.

[Silver Charm]

jimbo66 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> I have only seen one selection of Rachel and it is
> from Dave Litfin, who IMO ranks in the bottom 1%
> of handicappers.  

At bottom 1% he his still overrated.

> To be a master of the obvious, Rachel becomes much
> less of a \"bet against\" IMO if she goes off close
> to 2-1.


There is your rub. Because if she is much higher on Friday your thinking will adjust and she could progressively slide down on Sat. How hard and how fast she slides could depend on how big somebody hits her late.

But they can\'t hit her late in the Pick Fours or Pick Threes and lots of wise guys like Jerry Brown will have her tossed in those.

I heard he tilted the entire Pick Four Pool the year Smarty Jones won.

[jimbo66]

Revisit your TGJB comments after you buy the sheets for Saturday.