What have I/we learned in the last 2 Derbys?

[smalltimer]

This is what I\'ve now learned after the arrival of synthetics into the Derby picture.
In the last 2 years, 14 horses came into the Derby with 2 or more 9f prep races...
Results:  0 for 14 have failed to hit the board in the Derby, 0 for 7 in \'08, and 0 for 7 in \'09.

In the last 2 years, 15 horses have came into the Derby with a 9f Synthetic prep race...

Results:  1 for 15 has hit the board, (POTN yesterday), but NO horses who have had TWO 9f prep races have hit the board in the last 2 Derby\'s.

Less has become more in the runup to the Derby.  Eight Belles had only 8.5 furlong races as preps, Friesan Fire had no 9f preps, most everyone thought he was a major player yesterday despite his dismal performance.  

IF you preclude all horses in the last 2 years that had 1 or less 9f prep races and none were on artificial surfaces, the numbers are pretty staggering.

Big Brown, Eight Belles, Dennis of Cork, Tale of Ekati, Recapturetheglory, Z Fortune, Smooth Air, Gayego in \'08.  
Order of the above horse finishes:  Brown WON, Eight Belles 2nd, Dennis of Cork 3rd, Tale of Ekati 4th, Recapturetheglory 5th, Z Fortune 10th, Smooth Air 11th, Gayego 17th.  

Horses from 2008 with 1 9f synthetic prep or 2 9f preps and their order of finish:
Colonel John (2 preps) 6th, Pyro 8th, Cowboy Cal 9th, Visionaire 12th, Cool Coal Man 15th, Bob Black 16th, Big Truck 18th, Adriano 19th, Monba 20th.

Horses from 2009 with 1 9f synthetic prep or 2 9f preps and their order of finish yesterday:
Pioneerof the Nile 2nd, Chocolate Candy 5th, Join In The Dance 7th, General Quarters 10th, Hold Me Back 12th, Mr. Hot Stuff 15th, Flying Private 19th.

Oddly, in each year, there were 11 horses in each field that had only dirt preps.  And they completely dominated the board finishes.  The only thing I can see that separates the Synthetic based horses like POTN from the others is he had only 1 9f prep, whereas Colonel John, Chocolate Candy, Mr. Hot Stuff all had the apparent death sentence of dual 9f preps.  

At any rate, the thing could flip next year, but at this point, the numbers are fairly compelling as to why many of these horses run well or poorly.  (Admittedly, after the fact).  

Last comment:  Mine The Bird 8--8--5 as well as Giacomo 5--4--5 Thoro numbers coming in.  Not fast enough, but when things break down !@#$ happens.  None of us can explain it.  But, it\'ll happen again.