Monday Thoughts to Ponder

Uncle Buck · April 27, 2009, 05:36:27 PM

A:) After riding CV last year, have Garrett Gomez and Ron Anderson picked another slow horse for the world\'s biggest race? Questions abound. Betting this horse for me is like waiting on that last spade on the river to make a flush
B:) Does any horse at CD right now look aesthetically better than Chocolate Candy? He\'s a beautiful animal with a regal looking neck and head.
C:) Jimbo. Now that QR is out and we won\'t be facing off, are you picking Dunkirk as your key horse?
D:) When does Chaulkles the Clown receive his 72 hour hall pass?

jimbo66 · April 27, 2009, 05:57:00 PM

Buck,

I haven\'t figured out my wagering strategy yet. With futures bets on IWR at 55-1 and QR at 14-1, I was going to be playing some Oaks/Derby doubles with live longshots that I thought had a chance, like Chocolate Candy and West Side Bernie and maybe one more contender like Dunkirk. I was going to key Justwhistledixie in the Oaks.

Two things screwed up that strategy. First off the Quality Road scratch. Secondly, I made the mistake of re-watching the replays of Rachel Alexander\'s races this year and then reading about her workouts. Don\'t think I can bet against her significantly, with any confidence.

I do believe Dunkirk is the horse I will use on Saturday, along with Chocolate Candy, in the top slot. I don\'t need to use I Want Revenge as I have a very large bet on him, so using him on top again would make me a glutton.

Uncle Buck · April 27, 2009, 06:03:50 PM

55-1 on IWR is unbelievable value. The way my luck is running right now, the Bluegrass notwithstanding, I would get nosed at the wire.

West Side Bernie looks a little bouncy no?

jimbo66 · April 27, 2009, 06:13:37 PM

I will plagiarize Julian from one of the seminars at Saratoga.

At 5-1 West Side Bernie looks bouncy.

At 45-1 West Side Bernie looks fast enough to get at least get a piece.

Silver Charm · April 27, 2009, 06:35:28 PM

Jimbo I played this horse in the Holy Bull and the wide move then flatten pattern just sticks in my mind.

If they try for 3rd or 4th only......maybe

jimbo66 · April 27, 2009, 06:53:42 PM

Silver,

Take a look at his sheet. Draw a line through the poly races. You have a horse with a forward looking line, never gone backwards on dirt, a solid 2 year old top and only 3 points of development, and his last race is competitive for a slice. A forward move makes him a win candidate at 40-1ish.

Not saying he is the winner, but he is a live longshot IMO.

mlnolan00 · April 28, 2009, 04:10:44 AM

Agree his line looks good, but have to wonder when that Gilded Time is going to kick in.
Saw him in person over the weekend for his work and the horse is just this runty little thing and was absolutely getting run down by Desert Party who broke off many lengths behind Bernie. WSB is not a very impressive animal by any strech of the imagination.

For the Oaks, Rachel looks Tremendous. She is really something special.

Leave out Baffert\'s Gabby\'s Golden Girl at your own risk. She looked super good on the track for her gallop on Saturday and breeze on Sunday.

tim1500 · April 28, 2009, 04:26:54 AM

Without the Poly, WSB lines look very similar to Funny Cide.

ROBERT49 · April 28, 2009, 06:02:57 AM

True. Also look at FFire-his pattern resembles Funny as well.