Slop Workouts vs Dry Track Workouts

[jimbo66]

Warning:  This post has a lot of supposition....

It is not a surprise to me that on today\'s dry track, Pioneer of the Nile seemed to work less sharply than last week, while Chocolate Candy moved up quite a bit from last week.  Last week\'s workout for those horses (and also for I Want Revenuge) were over a sloppy track.  There has been very loose correlation between sloppy tracks/turf/synthetic (obviously the correlation between turf and synthetic is more than loose, but I am referring to sloppy track form).  Some of us believe that POTN is a turf/synthetic horse and he worked very sharply in the slop, but put out today what is a very slow move for a Bob Baffert horse.  If you check Baffert\'s MO, he works his horses often and hard.  Chocoloate Candy kind of struggled last week in the slop and now today ran a very quick 59 and galloped out well on the dry track.  For those of us that believe that Chocolate Candy will move up on a dirt track, today\'s workout should bolster confidence.

Tomorrow, assuming good weather, I would expect we will see a very sharp workout from I WAnt Revenge, which will be very different from last week\'s \"so so\" workout over the sloppy track.  I believe he has confirmed his affinity for a dry dirt track and I believe we will see that tomorrow.

Tough call on Friesan Fire.  I am never right on this guy Jones. He is following the Hard Spun prep plan with Friesan Fire.  The workout was obviously very sharp, but by all accounts he was wiped out at the end of it and didn\'t gallop out at all.  My memroy says I remember reading similar comments about Hard Spun, which made me throw that horse out.  I will say that if the track comes up sloppy on Derby day, I believe Friesan Fire moves up quite a bit (to state the obvious) and maybe becomes the horse to beat.  However, for now, I think he gets left off my tickets on a dry track, as he has one number that is competitive here, and it was over a sloppy track.  At single digit odds, he is underlaid IMHO.

[TGJB]

For what it\'s worth, horses that prefer turf supposedly have the opposite type of foot from those that like off tracks-- big and flat for the former, small for the latter. I personally have not seen overall positive turf/slop correlation (though I\'m sure there are examples), the open question to me is whether there is negative correlation.

[Old Mr. Boston]

I saw POTN\'s work today and he couldn\'t have gone any easier. He was never asked and was still striding out around the turn while pulling up. IMO Baffert\'s goal today was to get him to relax and not pull against the bit. FYI POTN worked alone today where he usually works in company.

[miff]

Jim,

Kinda think that FF\'s slop top is not that far off (2 points) his norm, so I think it\'s legit.At least he\'s more consistent and tactical than some of the slow plodding rats getting ink.Hard Spun also shut down and did not gallop out after his 57ish work.Like you,I never know if Cowboy Jones is a real horseman or a guy with lots of fast stock without a clue.

The call for the weather, 5 days out, is for possible showers/thunderstorms.Toss the possibility of a wet track in with synth to dirt horses, weakish patterns on the chalks,the pp draw and QR being out (changes race shape rather dramatically).A walk in the park!

Ahem,I\'m choking on stepping out against Rachel Alexandra after Mike Welsch\'s comments that the way she\'s training,she could win the derby.Maybe I\'ll \"just whistle dixie\" instead of betting on her.


Mike

[jimbo66]

TGJB,

Thanks for the viewpoint, but I am not buying this one.  I don\'t have a database to scan to get concrete facts, but about 25 years of betting on this sport lead me to a different conclusion.  The most recent high profile example I can think of is Papa Clem.  Didn\'t \"jump up\" on the sloppy track, but rather paired his synthetic form, but first time dry track ran a big top at a nice 4-1.

[TGJB]

Jimbo-- I\'m talking about turf and slop, no idea about feet for synth. Also, you seem to be assuming PC jumped because of the surface switch. His pattern (pairing up in the slop) was good for a new top, though I certainly didn\'t think he would jump that much. The Derby is loaded with horses that made a big jump at some point recently, most dirt to dirt, or had run on dirt before.