Is it possible the Florida horses aren't that good?

[Dana666]

I was watching videos over the weekend of some, not all, of the Derby contenders,and I was wondering if perhaps QR and Dunkirk might be overrated?

QR has run one (1) two turn race in his career and Dunkrik one (1) stakes race. Dunkirk looks like a one run type and QR may be stressed out b/c he ran so fast so early. His gallop out was terrible in the FLA DERBY and visually wouldn\'t Dunkirk\'s move have won 99/100 races, maybe he was just out of gas and QR kept running. The quarter crack while not the end of the world indicates some stress, right? Who were the horses who ran behind them anyway?

The California horses,which these days,I always think are way weaker because of the poly/pro/cushion crap, might just be far far superior -- IWR, Papa Clem\'s success seems to point to that.  Is POTN just waiting to validadte that theory big time or am I going against T-G\'s and Rags and being stupid (again!)?

[BitPlayer]

I think it is possible to take the opposite view: that the Florida horses are underrated as a group.  While much has been made of the California shippers, quite a few of the Florida horses also seem to be jumping way forward when they go elsewhere.  Examples include West Side Bernie, Atomic Rain, Musket Man, and His Greatness.

My general view is that it\'s unlikely that the horses in one region are, as a group, significantly better than the rest of the crop.  After all, they all come from the same bloodstock and are owned by the same deep pockets.  As has been discussed at length here, the slow California figures seem to me to reflect scale differences between dirt and synthetic figures, rather than the quality of the California horses.

My problem with the California horses is that you are selecting the best of that group based on performance over synthetic tracks.  It\'s just not the best way to find superior dirt horses.  I\'d rather take long odds on one who might jump up moving to dirt than short odds on another to reproduce his superiority moving to a different surface.  That said, I wasn\'t smart enough to bet I Want Revenge in futures pool 1.

[ajkreider]

I\'ve a feeling that looking back on this crop of Florida horses, we\'ll be more impressed by the sprinters than the routers.

Capt. Candy Man
Big Drama
Jojo
Notonthesamepage
This One\'s for Phil
Taqarub
Bee Cee Cee

is a pretty good list of 3 year olds.  All but one a winner at three (giving Big Drama credit), and 5 have a BSF over 100 in a sprint.

[Dana666]

Exactly, that\'s what I thought - one turn, sprinters, maybe up to a mile. So when you\'re in a route race and you run away from such horses, it\'s more visually impressive.