Is Dunkirk guaranteed a spot in the Derby?

[smalltimer]

According to the DRF, Dunkirk is tied with Charitable Man in graded earnings at $ 150K each.  They have a tie-breaking method in place, but that still would leave them tied.  Charitable Man continues to work toward the Derby according to his connections.  The real problem may be El Crespo.  If he runs 2nd in the Coolmore he also will have $ 150K in graded earnings and also ties the other two in the tie-breakers.  They could have to resort to a shake or a pill pull.  Ouch, if that happens.

[ajkreider]

Durkirk\'s clearly not guaranteed a spot, but he should get in.  He and CM are currently tied for 18th on Downey\'s list, and that\'s with Bittel Road and the filly still ahead of them.  Can\'t see either of those going, and that gets Dunkirk in even if he loses a three-way with El Crespo.  

And one of the Dubais might pass, and if Square Eddie throws a clunker, and . . . .  you get the idea.

[Silver Charm]

There are 20 spots in the Derby. Things as of now are working their way down the pecking order because of defections.

Terrain, Bittel Road.

People who are 20+ on the list are drawing in now including the D Wayne Lukas horse which means it is offically going to be the Kentucky Derby..........

[Lost Cause]

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> There are 20 spots in the Derby. Things as of now
> are working their way down the pecking order
> because of defections.
>
> Terrain, Bittel Road.
>
> People who are 20+ on the list are drawing in now
> including the D Wayne Lukas horse which means it
> is offically going to be the Kentucky
> Derby..........



As long as that horse is breathing Lukas will have him in the gate regardless of his chances.
The list is below.


Kentucky Derby Graded Earnings for Major Contenders (through 04/13/09)  
1 Mafaaz John Gosden N/A
2 Regal Ransom Saeed bin Suroor $1,200,000
3 Pioneerof the Nile Bob Baffert $1,193,250
4 Square Eddie Doug O\'Neill $774,981
5 I Want Revenge Jeff Mullins $774,000
6 Papa Clem Gary Stute $760,000
7 Desert Party Saeed bin Suroor $641,667
8 Quality Road James Jerkens $600,000
8 General Quarters Thomas McCarthy $595,645
10 Friesan Fire Larry Jones $570,465
11 Musket Man Derek Ryan $485,000
12 Terrain Albert Stall, Jr. $448,330
13 Hold Me Back William Mott $438,000
14 West Side Bernie Kelly Breen $385,160
15 Chocolate Candy Jerry Hollendorfer $370,000
16 Win Willy McLean Robertson $230,000
17 Giant Oak Chris Block $169,256
18 Dunkirk Todd Pletcher $150,000
19 Charitable Man Kiaran McLaughlin $150,000
20 Flying Private D. Lukas $124,000
21 Mr. Hot Stuff Eoin Harty $114,000
22 Summer Bird Tim Ice $100,000
23 Join in the Dance Todd Pletcher $90,000
24 Just a Coincidence Nicholas Zito $75,000
25 Hello Broadway Barclay Tagg $63,860
26 Jeranimo Michael Pender $24,000

[analizethis]

Has Block announced a decision on Giant Oak?