Quality Road\'s Beyer Figure upgraded
By Andrew Beyer
Quality Road\'s winning Beyer Speed Figure in the Florida Derby has been substantially upgraded - from 103 to 111. The change was made as part of an overall revision of the 1 1/8-mile races at Gulfstream Park.

\"The figure for the Florida Derby looked low,\" Andew Beyer said, \"and on the previous day, the Bonnie Miss Stakes also [at 1 1/8 miles] came up about 10 points slower than we would have expected. As we reviewed other races, we concluded there had been a change in the historic relationship between times at 1 1/8 miles and other distances at Gulfstream. We don\'t know why, but we did know that many of the 1 1/8-mile figures had to be increased.\"

Quality Road\'s 111, coming after the 113 he had earned in the Fountain of Youth Stakes, certifies his status as one of the top candidates for the Kentucky Derby. The last six runnings of the Derby have been won with figures of 111 or less. Dunkirk, second-place finisher in the Florida Derby, earned a figure of 108, which would make him a viable contender, too.

TGJB: A) This goes to the whole question of making assumptions as to the relationship between one and two turn races, as opposed to going off the horses, and B) the right figure is actually in between, about 106 on their scale. QR went back a couple.

This is not as bad as when Hopkins changed the Beyer on the Haynsfield race because the first couple of finishers, who were off huge tops, didn\'t run as well next time out.

covelj70: very interesting, thank you so much JB

you had mentioned in a previous post that very few horses have won the Derby after going backward in their final prep.  

This makes Quality Road a tough call.  

Clearly fast enough and very talented with the right rider and a good trainer (though one that does better early in the series of races as you pointed out earlier).  However, this backward move doesn\'t do much to dispel the notion that the big effort in the Florida Derby took alot out of the horse.  

Given what I view as a decreased likelihood of Quality Road putting up a 2 negative in the Derby which is what is likely needed to win, if I Want Revenge puts up a 3 negative this weekend, it will be tough to play against him in the Derby as he could back up a bit and still win.

great weekend ahead.

thanks again

miff: JB,

Doesn\'t going strictly off the horses assume that horses run somewhat \"the same\",except they don\'t all the time.I will always feel thats it\'s possible the  whole field had a slightly \"off day\" no matter how unlikely that seems.Happens with all athletes occasionally.

The thing about the lack of relationship of the 1 1/8 th mile races to other distances at GP is something that I thought you would have also recognized.It exists for sure since the new GP came to be,unless you believe the GP teletimer is screwed up (many believe that)I guess you still hand time.

The race came up 106-109 area imo and the lack of another 2 turner made it tough.I guessed you were in the neg 1 or 2 area.


Mike

TGJB: Miff-- all speed figures are based on how horses have run in the past, one way or another. That\'s true if you use pars, it\'s true if you use the horses, it\'s true whether you make assumptions about fixed relationships between distances or not, it\'s true whether you assume the track doesn\'t change speed throught the day or not (last two are how Ragozin says he does things in his book, and how Friedman has said they do things on his site, I\'m the \"not\"). The only difference is that if you use pars, assume fixed relationships or constant track speed, you end up effectively using averages (average track speed for the day, average relationship between one and two turn races, average winning figure for 25 claimers, etc.).

The figure relationships between horses are fixed when they cross the wire, by beaten lengths, ground, and weight. I can\'t \"assume\" that a horse who runs 6\'s did it again AND that another who runs 6\'s also did it again if one horse has to get 5 points better than the other.

You work with all the data you have. That means historical relationships between distances, track maintenance if you can get it, how fast horses in other races ran, how fast horses in the race in question ran. But in the end the only QUANTITATIVE measure is how fast horses run over a track.

miff: Thanks JB,

Last thing. I was referring to a race like QR with no other routes to compare.I understand your point and have studied your methods vs the others for  quite awhile. It does not reconcile that whether you use pars or whatever that you come to the same conclusion,thats a certainty.

One glaring thing I find is that only TG will show a horse running the same fig(pairs) 4-5-6 times in a row.Have rarely seen that on Rags or Beyer,adjusted. I am convinced there is no right or wrong making figs, and assume that the artistic license of the top three fig guys is just different.

You will be surprised to see the big differences in some of the Derby contenders figs expressed in TG numbers for TG, Rags and Beyer adjusted.

Mike

TGJB: First of all, as I\'ve said here before,since the entire concept of speed figures is based on using horses figure histories to create later figures, it\'s a sign of strength to have horses running back to or close to past figures-- UNLESS you are playing around WITHIN the race, with the relationships between horses, which would be self defeating as a practical matter. If you have a race where several horses pair up their most recent figure (for example), it\'s not only an indication that day\'s figures are right, but that the past figures are as well.

Secondly, I\'m not at all surprised that there are differences with Ragozin, since their assumptions will often create a \"correct\" figure that\'s different than ours. Those guys are about process, and rules-- as has been discussed here a lot in years past, if their process ended up with the Fla Derby going in a 20, they would have given the horses a 20. In their world there are no sliding variants without extreme weather changes (see \"Changing Track Speeds\" in the Archive Section of this site), no splits between one and two turn races, no track speed changes due to track maintenance (the famous Wood Memorial brouhaha from a few years ago).

The same thing applies to differences with other figure makers who use a different process, whether it involves pars, doesn\'t involve ground and weight, whatever. I should HOPE there are differences, and so should bettors who use our data.