Breaking through tops again

[cheapclaimer]

Tis far more important to discuss the same ole bullshit over and over again, so let that thread continue and we\'ll start fresh.

Charismatic 1999:

CD.......3.50
Kee......3.50

SA...........8.0


BM............8.75

SA............8.75
SA...............11.75tu
SA.................12.50tu

SA................11.75

Is he playable? This has to be broken into two parts:

In the old, classic school of sheet reading the answer would be a resounding no. Big top, short rest, new distance etc.

However, one is compelled to look how he compared to the others in the race that day. He was second fastest in the race with Stephen Got Even, the immortal First American also coming in off a huge top fastest at 2.75bi/bo. You might even take the approach that Char. hadn\'t gone back all spring and was in fact a rapidly developing 3yo. At the odds and knowing it was Lukas it wasn\'t an improbable play by any stretch. After all, price is the name of the game.

Up to date sheet reading requires trainer study and not just figs alone. Knowing which trainers\' horses are less likely to bounce and/or more likely for a big move forward is an integral part of the equation that reading the sheet alone will never provide. Thoro-Graph is miles ahead of the competition in that regard.

[HP]

Jim,

Jurmala was nice enough to post Charismatic\'s numbers. My read of this pattern was that the horse was definitely fast enough to win the race, but there were a few factors which led me to toss him.

The leap to the 3 range was huge, much like the leap War Emblem had in this past year\'s campaign. There wasn\'t much in the way of gradual development to the better figures. There was a short break after the 8\'s and then boom, 3\'s.

After his first big race, he ran (I think) in the Lexington on short rest (less than 2 weeks?) and paired it. I would\'ve played him to back up off the first 3 in the Lexington and I would\'ve lost, but with those two big races coming so close together and then the Derby was (again excuse me if I\'m a little off) two weeks later, I figured that would be that and he would bounce of the pair of big races that were so out of line with this early spring figures.

I would say the lesson here is that these are some of the usual sheet/pattern reading principles, but they probably don\'t apply to Lukas or Baffert 3yos coming into the Derby.

War Emblem had better spacing of his spring races but many of the same points apply, and he managed to pop the third big race in a row in the Derby too.

Sorry about all the other stuff with JJ, but sometimes I can\'t resist. HP

[derby1592]

This is all in hindsight. I tossed him that year but, given what I have now learned through some tedious research, he would be a definite play at 33-1 if I had a similar opportunity today.

For stakes calibur 3yo routers running a 4-6 point new top, you can expect about 25 percent of them to pair up or improve next time out, about 40 percent of them to run some sort of an in between figure from 1-4 pts off the new top and about 35 percent of them to \"X.\" I think Charismatic was one of the faster ones going into the race and given the 33-1 odds, he was an obvious play. Of course, if he had been odds on, he would have been a play against.

Chris

[TGJB]

Chris,

Since you and Catalin have done statistical studies on these questions, I would be interested in seeing both of you respond to Mart\'s original question. I will deal with it at a theoretical level.

[TGJB]

1- I almost never play a horse to run more than 2-3 points better than any established top.

2- The lighter the horse is raced, the bigger the potential jump, as a broad generalization.

3- A horse who has done a lot of developing-- had several previous established tops-- is less likely to make a larger jump, obviously. Which goes to the whole question of good long term lines and good short term lines...

4- A horse who has done little or no developing over an extended period of time is also not a good candidate to jump, especially young horses. This also brings in the question of trainer patterns, which is yet another reason these questions are hard to deal with in the abstract...

5- Patterns being equal, the slower the horse, the bigger the potential jump. This is because there are fewer horses capable of running an 8 than a 10, etc. This also means that stake horses (like the ones we discuss in ROTW) are less likely to make big jumps than claiming and allowance YOUNG horses. This in turn makes stake races easier to play. It also makes the case for using the Red Board Room as a learning resource, not just ROTW.

6- Patterns have changed as the breed has improved and training (and veterinary) methods have changed, and bounces are less acceptable to me than before, especially with young horses. Sometimes they come when you would expect them, and that\'s okay-- after a big jump, after a jump 0-2, after a jump pair. But if a 3 year old (especially a \"good\" one) bounces after running only a point or two better than his 2 year old top, I don\'t like it-- he\'s much more likely to return to his top than jump. And I especially don\'t like big bounces on young horses. Obviously, time between races is a factor in all of this, too.

7- I can\'t see over the top of what\'s \"on my plate\", so there is no book forthcoming, at least in the forseeable future. But here\'s a thought-- there are several serious, sophisticated TG players who post here. Why don\'t you guys pick and post your own ROTW (or of the day or whatever) analysis right here? Not the sheets, but the discussion of the individual horses in whatever race you guys think lends itself. This would have the advantage of starting discussions about non-stake  patterns (we are limited in ROTW options by our arrangements with DRF, TVG etc.), and I\'ll jump in on occasion.

8- This week\'s ROTW (Holy Bull) has several horses that lend themselves nicely yo this discussion.

[JimP]

Chris, what does your research show about young stakes level horses that jump, then pair up? What\'s the likely outcome in the next out? That\'s the pattern that Charismatic showed:  8, 3.5, 3.5. What should the expectation be for the race following the second 3.5?

[derby1592]

Top 3yo stakes routers that pair a new top in general run their top or better about 35 percent of the time next out, run something 1-4 pts off that top about 40 percent of the time and \"X\" about 25 percent of the time.

I don\'t have the exact breakout based on how big the initial top was relative to their previous top but roughly speaking based on similar relationships, the percentages probably shift right about 10 percent with more BAD races after paired big new tops (>4 pts) and shift left about 10 percent with more GOOD races after paired small tops (<2pts).

Also, keep in mind lots of factors can impact these general percentages including the trainer (probably a plus for a Lukas horse in a TC race) and suitability to the distance, surface, timing, probable pace scenario, etc.

So a well-bred 3yo triple crown contender heading into a TC race that just paired a small new top for a leading trainer such as Baffert, Frankel or Lukas probably has percentages around 50/40/10 (Top or better / in-between / X) while a suspect-bred 3yo triple crown contender that just paired a big new top for a low-success trainer probably has percentages closer to (20/40/40). Those are probably about the maximum ranges you would use for pair-ups on the TC trail unless you had some unusual mitigating factor.

I hope that helps. A good question. It helps illustrate how an understanding of such basic general percentages can provide handicapping insight.

Chris

[TGJB]

Nice work.

[Silver Charm]

I would like to add a couple of more caveats to the Charismatic story. He was also picking up 12 pounds of that Lexington Stakes win and was over the 4.00 threshold on the Dosage. At the time the Dosage still seemed to be viable tool to help eliminate contenders in the Derby. I had Charismatic pretty good in the Lexington Stakes but bailed out on him in the Derby because of all the factors we have previously mentioned. Another Thorograph player who TGJB probably knows (his name is Peter) played Charismatic off that 3 with Menifee and Cat Thief everyway possible and absolutely CRUSHED THE RACE!! Beauty is in the eyes of the beholder.

After this race I altered my betting strategy. I mean at 35-1 even the trainer had to go back and get more. One final note Lukas had another 3YO filly, about a year later, with a pattern similar to Charismatic running in the Breeders Cup Distaff. Her name was Spain and she paid over $100.00

Did anyone see what I saw in Domestic Dispute\'s line. If he can survive the works this may be Bafferts eventual best Derby runner.

Also bumped into Mike Maker (assistant to Lukas) as I leaving Gulfstream on Saturday after the Santa Catalina. He was aware of the figure Thorograph gave him in his last race and nodded affirmatively when I said, \"Good thing he did\'nt run out of his mind again today\".

[derby1592]

If you are looking for a Derby future book play, Domestic Dispute may be a good one. In my view, he has an almost perfect 2yo sheet. He never went back, had plenty of 2yo seasoning (6 races), never made a big jump (ignoring his first start) and had the perfect 2yo top for a Derby horse: Not to fast (to date, no Derby winner has run under a 6 TG fig as a 2yo) and not too slow (given the 6.75 2yo top, he definitely has the potential to improve enough to get down to a potential Derby winnning fig, which lately has been in the -1 to +1 range).

I will assume that he improved a couple of points in his recent win probably to something in the 4-5 range (I would be interesting in knowing what fig he earned), which sets him up nicely for his final 2 or 3 preps before the Derby.

He also has good breeding and has shown he can rate and will probably get better as the distances increase.

His connections are obviously a plus but he has still managed to fly under the radar despite the connections thanks to his stablemates that have stolen the spotlight. Domestic Dispute may be another Real Quiet in the making.

Of all the contenders to this point, I would peg him as one of the best future book values.

I would be interested in hearing other opinions on the early Derby contenders. In particular, the less obvious ones.

Chris

[Catalin]

I don\'t have much to add to what Chris said.  A few general observations in no particular order:

1)  Fast 3YOs are less likely to bounce off big tops than in the past.  Even horses off 3+ plus tops are likely to run at or near their top about 40% of the time next out.  Generally, if they run a 2nd one near
that jump-up they\'re likely to back up a few points in the 3rd start. Horses that have made smaller moves are about 60% to repeat or run better next out.

2)  Fast established 3YOs are much less likely to jump-up (3+ point move)than you would think.  If a horse is 3 or more points slow going in, they are unlikely to make a move big enough to compete, though if that
move comes there\'s little way to tell based on the past pattern whether it\'s going to be a 4 point move or a 8 point move. If that type comes in with a good pattern they are also likely to be over bet relative to
their chances.

3)  3YO routers as a group are no more likely to repeat a good effort than 3YO sprinters, despite conventional wisdom to the contrary.

4)These rough guidelines hold for 3YOs racing on dirt.  Three year olds running on grass pair-up much more frequently, but jump up less frequently than their dirt counterparts.  Turf 3YOs are also unlikely to move any more than a maximum of 4 pts over a current top, no matter how explosive they may look on paper.

Catalin