Two yr. old Figures

[mlnolan00]

When looking at a 2yr old\'s figures, what are the odds of bounce vs. improvement as it races throughout its first year?  Do 2yr olds bounce as much as older horses?

If a 2yr old runs an 11 in the first start and then 7\'s in its 2nd and 3rd starts, what is more likely--that it\'ll bounce from the 7\'s or that it can improve again in the 4th start?

[TGAB]

2yos are juveniles. They are new to the track, the whole racing experience, and they are not physically mature. I don\'t know whether they bounce as much as older racers. That\'s a function of a myriad of factors. What I do know is that juveniles have much more room to develop and improve which implies they bounce less than their elders.

For a juvenile, growth is a paramount concern. Just about every race is meant to convey information as to a horse\'s talent ceiling, path--it\'s strengths, weaknesses, preferences, and general health. That\'s not necessarily so for older horses. Presumably they\'ve exposed their talent, hit their zenith, perhaps been nicked or worse and now it\'s a question of at what level they can compete effectively. Competent horsemanship, good timing and judicious placement can all serve to reduce the likelihood of a bounce but they are now running \"effective tops\"--the best they can do now.

As to the question about the pair of tops I\'d suggest you listen to the \"audio seminar\" available on the Introduction page. Be sure to download first the introductory sheets so you can follow along. The seminar details how Thoro-Graph figures are made, how to read them, and how to interpret some of the patterns for handicapping purposes. It refers explicitly to the pair of tops pattern and a lot of others.          

As to the example you cite, at the outset let me say that a pair of tops in general is a positive sign of health and the younger the horse, the more positive the read. So in general, time between races notwithstanding, we expect a juvenile racer to improve immediately, next out. But one bounce depending on how bad,is not enough to sour us on the horse although obviously it isn\'t as positive as a repeat or another new top. For 3yos a pair of tops is also a very positive sign of health and indicator of imminent improvement but a bounce before the improvement is more likely. Horses develop as they age and as they start coming closer to their absolute physical and talent peak the tops become harder and harder to achieve which means that to maintain peak levels--pairs, triplets---is  potentially enervating and bounce-inducing. It\'s the great horse that can maintain a consistent, superior talent level for an extended period of time without succombing physically. Curlin is pretty close.