Saturday's Grade 1 Stakes Thoughts

[jimbo66]

Some interesting and bettable races tomorrow at both Belmont and Santa Anita.

Here are some thoughts, assuming a wet track and wet turf.

Flower Bowl - Palmilla looks very live at ML 8-1.  Faster than Mauralakana at the weights, had a troubled line last time and still ran a race that could win today.  Gets the rail, should trip out and is tremendous value.  Probably my best Saturday bet.  Use her with Dynaforce, as that one could run back to her race in the Diana and if so, will be very tough in here.  Not using Mauralakana or Communique at all.

Beldame - No real value here except multi-race bets, as I think Unbridled Belle wins.  Has several that are faster than all of Ginger Punch\'s except GP\'s big one.  Timing might be right for Unbridled Belle to run back to her negative 2, and she likes Belmont.  She is a big filly and the wide sweeping turn suits her.  5-2 is probably the pric on the win side, but may get better in multi-race bets.

Vosburgh - Will be spreading in the multi-race bets.  Fabulous Strike is the fastest, but it might be unreasonable to expect this horse\'s best tomorrow, based on lack of workouts, and layoff.  Obvious soundness issues, but these type often fire their best fresh.  Not expecting Lucky Island to run back to the negative 4 yet, as I think he will need more time, but the slop will help.  Rockefeller would probably be my key, as the negative 3.5 here would likely make him very tough if Fabulous Strike doesn\'t fire his best shot and Lucky Island doesn\'t get back to his top yet.  Especially when you feel, like I do, that First Defence will bounce to the moon here.  Kodiak Cowboy another fast one that I don\'t think will get back to his top yet and maybe not this year.  That negative 5 could really set him back.  

Joe Hirsch - Very interesting betting race.  I will be using just two horses in the multi-race bets, and they should both be square prices.  My key will be Strike a Deal, who I think can run a new top here.  Should get a great trip, on the rail, behind the other horse I will use, Precious Passion.  PP can run a \"2\", which with a 1w/1w trip that he will likely get, on the lead, will make him very tough at 10-1.  Probably the better value bet is to key PP, but I have been keen on Strike A Deal for a while and I believe tomorrow is the day for this horse and 6-1 isn\'t bad.  SEveral of the favorites look bad to me.  

Gold Cup - Not interesting, other than to watch.  Curlin should win.  Period.

LAdy\'s Secret - Hysterical Lady will beat Zenyatta tomorrow.  Not going to get great value on the bet, perhaps 3-2, but Will pound HL in the multi-race bets.  HL is faster and will get a 1w/1w trip on the lead, setting her own pace.  Her non-affinity for synthetics is overblown, IMO.

Goodwood - Tough tough race.  Have a feeling we still haven\'t seen the best of MAst Track.  Deceptively good race for him last time out, as he didn\'t make the lead, was wide and ran on well.  Wish the horse had an inside post, but he has enough tactical speed where he might be able to get a trip.  If he goes postward at 6-1 or higher, which I think will happen, i will key him.  

Good luck!!

[Michael D.]

good luck Jim.

I\'m going with Kodiak Kowboy at a price in the ROTW. has the \'1.5\' as a 2 yr old and the negative \'5\' back in July, looking like a 6f type both times. I\'m betting on a wicked pace duel here, and KK is the one that can pick them off late if close to his best.

taking Stones River at huge odds in the big one. bred to go for miles, and is 3 for 3 over the off going.

[Silver Charm]

Strike a Deal could run second if he was facing Monty Hall

6-1 is appealing however and there is not a lot speed in here on a very boggy surface.

Likes Yielding, has been freshened and breezed strongly for stamina on 8/31, 9/15 and most importantly 9/21.

Should run HUGE today.