ROTW

[Mall]

Not much to add, as I agree with the assessment that Kafwain\'s chances of winning are close to 50%. The items I found most interesting were that Logician was purchased at a 2yr old in training sale for $520k after selling for $150k as a yrling, and that this is the 1st time in many yrs that Dollase, an excellent trainer, is running one back on 10 days rest. Also, while Hennessy\'s last does represent a bigger forward move, you could make the case that it might have had something to do with the addition of blinkers, and 1/2 Werblin\'s 3.25 at 2 and 5 at a route might be seen as addditional evidence if you\'re of the view that another forward move is in the offing. Finally, for what it\'s worth, Derby1592 & I independently reached the conclusion that Be Blessed in the 3rd at Haw has a much higher percentage chance of running a winning or competitive number than his 15-1 ML odds would suggest.

[derby1592]

I also have to pretty much agree with the ROTW analysis. My only change would be that Coax Kid looks like a better longshot play than Domestic Dispute or Logician. That last was a big jump but the only forward move of his life and it was in his first route on a fast track. His trainer is also red hot and he is significantly faster going into the race and has won at the distance.

Also, I just thought that I would mention that the BC horses that ran efforts in the BC and have since raced have pretty much all flopped so Kafwain may not be a lock to run big in this one and as the ROTW analysis stated, Toccet did not run much in the BC but has since been dancing every dance and ships east to west for this one.

Finally, does anyone remember when this race used to have a purse of $1 million?

Chris

[Mall]

Hats off to Toccet & his connections. Maybe he is that rare horse which thrives on repeated racing, though Frank Lyons did everything but beg the trainer to give him a rest. He\'d get my vote based on his overall yr & on the way he battled back in the stretch yesterday. Sorry Chris that I only mentioned Be Blessed yesterday & said nothing about your two daylight shot winners that I didn\'t agree on. Solid work on your part.