Breakdown Study

[fkach]

>The extreme \"BI\" in the Fantasy was a big red flag that by that time trouble was imminent.<

I am still looking for stats on BI and BO, but have been unable to find them. I don\'t doubt it often means something is amiss. I would just like to convert that insight into a probability estimate for having trouble soon after.

The one thing that was unique about EB was that she BI on multiple occasions in races and I am pretty sure in workouts also. I am clueless as to what something like that means.

[miff]

Fkach,

You may wish to add to the list Big B who runs like a snake in the morning, esp if his regular exercise rider,Michelle is not on.

Kent D was fired from getting on BB in the am after Tricky\'s watched BB run all over the place. He has not been on in the AM since Feb.

What it means,NO ONE knows!

Mike

[sighthound]

I would like to remind that the necropsy report on Eight Belles was public, and there was no indication of pre-existing bone damage (I think we\'ve talked about that before).  

Both legs didn\'t break at once.  The second was a consequence of the first, on a tired horse at the end of a race.  That timing really does matter.  

Her muscle exhaustion mattered alot as to why two legs were affected (muscles thus tendons stretch when fatigued, can\'t hold the boney column as tightly together, etc)  

When was the last time you ever saw a horse break after the race was over?  That could not have been more odd.  

That is exactly the type of horse that normally would have made it to a walk, then been sore or lame cooling out or the next day.  We see thousands of those.

  Unfortunately for EB the first leg gave out about 5-10 seconds too soon, and the cascade of what followed resulted in her death.

[smalltimer]

Her races prior to Jan 21 were:

Dec 23 FG 1 mile 40 yards  Alw race

Nov 30 FG 1 mile  Alw race

Oct 30 Del 1 mile 70 yards  MSW

Oct 15 Del 1 mile 1/16  MSW

Sep 16 Del  5.5f  MSW

I can probably look up the workouts between races if you really need them.

[smalltimer]

Here are her preceding workouts prior to the Jan 21 race:

Nov 24 FG 3f 36b 2/22

Oct 7 Del 5f 100.1B 2/18

Sept 3 Del 3f 3B 2/7

Aug 28 Del 5f 100.3 Bg 5/14

Aug 12 Del 5f 104B 20/24

Jul 25 Del 5f 101.1 Bg 6/19

Jul 11 Del 4f 49Bg 2/33

That\'s as far back as I can go.