Travers

[TGJB]

First two paired up exactly.

[covelj70]

Interesting, great pattern for both of them to jump forward in their next races though I would imagine that Mambo will be very short in the Super Derby and that Harty won\'t have Col John wound too tight for the Goodwood.

Thanks for the info JB.

[miff]

Interesting, Beyer had the Travers 120 raw with a minus -14 variant giving a final Beyer of 106. They did not deviate variant wise from the whole day although there were no other routes.

Can\'t imagine that race being that fast and TG has it slower. A rough conversion, Beyer to TG Fig, would have given the runner up a neg-1.5ish whereas JB has the top two pairing which seems far more reasonable.I asked and was told they stand by the 106 Beyer fig.


Mike

[fkach]

Miff,

There was a lot of trouble in the race (including the winner getting out of the gate bad/getting bumped later and the place horse losing some ground), but the top two were well clear of the rest.

Just how slow could the race have been?

This is not a very good crop of 3YO colts, but even weak horses tend to improve as the year progresses. It\'s hard for me to imagine them being as bad as you seem to think.

(I have already seen stats that suggest that at the top of the scale, versatile horses that have been performing well on artificial surfaces (CJ) improve a length or so on dirt because of the \"figure compression\" issue we also see on turf. The improvement scale in not uniform though).

[miff]

\"Just how slow could the race have been?\"


Fkach,

On that surface 2.03.20 is pathetic, older claiming time.The race was slow raw and adjusted. Jerry paired the top two, its mid august and TG 1\'s are slow figs for legit GR 1 types nowdays.CJ is a grinder who can\'t win that race unless he\'s right where he was(despite his modest trouble). Check his splits, didn\'t run a \"racehorse\" quarter the entire trip.The adjusted clock never lies!

As to this years 3yr colt crop, imagine BB was not racing,it would be a joke.

Mike

[fkach]

Miff,

Beyer gave the race a 106. Another Beyer Scale source I use gave it a 107. A 3rd made the race a little slower (I think about a 101), but the pace adjusted performance figure earned by CJ was a bit higher.

That range seems \"about right\" to me also. Those aren\'t exactly good enough figures to contend against top Grade 1 older horses, but it\'s not that far off what we typically see from average Grade 1 3YOs in August.

I don\'t think this race was quite as bad as the bad rap it\'s taking considering all the trouble. I guess we\'ll learn more when they face older on dirt.

[Silver Charm]

The race was good but this crew is not much. The winner still has not cracked or hit a zero and when was the last Travers winner who we said that about.

He is improving however.

The runnerup looks good but may have developed all he is going to this year, probably should run in the Super Derby then get tucked away.

The others want no part of Curlin, Commentator or Big Brown.

Or even the Go Between Student Council types for that matter.