Tale of Ekati in the Travers, why 20-1?

[covelj70]

disclaimer that I obviously haven\'t seen all of the sheet numbers for all of the horses for the Travers since they won\'t be posted until later but....

....how in God\'s name is Tale of Ekati 20-1 on the ML

What has this horse done so wrong that he has been totally dimissed?

1) He ran very well as a 2 year old, including in the BC

2) He won the wood, earnings a \"0\" in the process which stands as one of the best figs anyone in this group has earned

3) He ran well in the Derby, at least better than those he will run against here in the Travers.

4) He had half of his hoof torn off in the early stages of the Belmont and he doesn\'t want to go 1 1/2 anyway so I think he has an excuse there (I also posted on the Friday before the Belmont that I thought he looked terribe on the track the day before) so I really do think he has a legit excuse for the Belmont

5) Tagg said BEFORE the Jim Dandy that the horse was short for that race and that he was using it more as a prep for the Jim Dandy

6) He has worked well in preparation for the race

7) Tagg\'s horses are running well at the Spa

He should save ground all the way around from down on the rail.

Again, I haven\'t seen all of the numbers for all of the horses but I believe his wood \"0\" stacks up well here and he beat alot of the horses that are shorter in the ML already (ie. Pyro and Col John in the Derby).

I could be in trouble in this one if he goes off anywhere near his 20-1 ML, someone call chase and tell them to lock down my home equity line.

More practically, someone talk me off this beast at 20-1 before I get myself in alot of trouble.

Serioulsy though, what am I missing about that ML?

[jbelfior]

Tale of Ekati is a nice horse. That\'s it....nice horse.

He will not be 20-1; probably closer to 10 or 11-1. People remember Wood Memorial winners.

Saratoga is a tough track to negotiate 1 1/4, which is probably why a good number of the Belmont winners do well in the Travers.That being said, I do not like D\'Tara.

As for Tale of Ekati; he has NEVER shown any indication that he wants any part of a classic distance. Tagg may have a miracle left in him; he\'ll have to in this case.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[RICH]

If I am not mistaken wasn\'t the track on Wood day strange? If so, put your thumb over the number and what do you get.

[jbelfior]

You don\'t get a sheet that screams Travers winner!!


This race is very tough.



Good Luck,
Joe B.

[covelj70]

thanks for the thoughts.  You are helping to temper my enthusiasm.

That said however, if the sheet screamed Travers winner, I don\'t think the odds would be double digit.

I keep hearing from everyone that he doesn\'t want to go a classic distance which is fine but he beath three horses in this race in the Derby at the classic distance which he suppossedly doesn\'t want and 2 of them will be less than half of the price we are getting on ToE.  Also, Macho will be relatively short based on his Jim Dandy win in which he beat Pyro who Tale of Ekati beat handily in the Derby.

Thanks for the thoughts.

[Flighted Iron]

For a \"short\" horse he ran a nice race and with prado back the price sure will
dictate exoctic possibilities. Have you looked at Cool Coal Man\'s pp\'s? I haven\'t
seen his sheet,but based off BB\'s neg 2 or so CCM prob earned a 0-1 for his
last start.15-1 ml odds with johnny v.  Thoughts?

[jbelfior]

I understand your enthusiasm. The Travers this year, on paper, is weak both pace wise and final # wise.

You may end up on the winner (or runner up) simply through his ability to middle move, grab the lead at the eight pole and then hold off mediocre 3 yo colts, none of whom will have you forget Victory Gallop, Forty Niner, or Street Sense.


Travers entries that I have on the first draft of those to eliminate: 3,4,7,8,9,10,11. Still leaves me with a lot of work to do.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[covelj70]

I thought he had the best shot in the Haskell to get close to BB and I love the odds and JV in the irons but I don\'t love the spacing of this race for him.  Certainly can\'t dismiss though (which is the case for many of these which is why I love this race so much).

[fkach]

You know who would have added a lot of spice to this race if he came to the US?

Casino Drive!

[fkach]

Does anyone know if Casino Drive is coming back to the US?

[covelj70]

connections insist they are bringing him back for the classic

[mlnolan00]

I think maybe the Goodwood @ Oak Tree before that

[jpazarzis]

Tale of Ekati, is a great racehorse that was present in all the major races for his age since he was a 2yo...
As a 2yo he was definitely precocious, especially his Futurity win, last year in Belmont was very convincing of great class and racing ability.....

He also showed his talent as a 3yo capturing the Wood, beating War Pass who once upon a time was considered to be the best horse of this (weak) crop....

But. we have to admit, that his later evolution, is not exactly aligned with the start of his career... As most of the horses that are pushed too much as 2yo, he also did not became the stand out horse that lots of us were expecting...  Instead other horses, with much more humble beginnings, became more mature and improved to the point that the original poster is noticing, to be a M/L long shot of 20-1...

I would say, that PYRO pretty much follows in the same category, as a quality horse of the past, that he later evolution, is definitively lower than the expectations...

What about a Mambo in SPA? Will the music be on?