Race Shapes - Explanation & Sample

[TGJB]

We are pleased to announce that in about a week we will introduce Thoro-Graph Race Shapes, our newest product. Race Shapes are intended for those who incorporate \"trips\" into their handicapping. An explanation can be found below.

For a brief period of time we will be including the Race Shapes with our other data at no additional cost both online and with our hard copy products. You will also be able to download them separately for free from our website. Eventually we will be charging for the Race Shapes as a stand-alone product.

Following is a link to download the Race Shapes for Oaklawn\'s Arkansas Derby card. This is a rough draft, work in progress, and there are kinks that have to be worked out. If you see a problem, send me an email at jerrybrown@thorograph.com.  I don\'t promise to answer, but I will read it.  ----  Jerry  Brown


Thoro-Graph Race Shapes
We have taken the first quarter mile run by every horse in their recent races, and adjusted each horse\'s time for track speed, wind, weight, carried, and ground loss, if any. We then gather the data for all the horses running on a race card, and further adjust those times based on the recent speed of the track they are running over today . The resulting adjusted quarter times give the handicapper the ability to form an idea of the early speed of each horse, and the early pace of each race.

We then take things a step further. Using each horse\'s last three adjusted times, we have come up with an average quarter mile time for each horse, and put those times on a graph for each race. The result is what we call a Race Shape -- a rough evaluation of where each horse figures to be after a quarter mile. This enables the handicapper to evaluate how a race will set up -- for example, whether a horse drawn outside has several horses with a similar running style inside him, in which case he could be caught wide.

Keep in mind that how much early speed a horse has shown in previous races is often a function of tactics -- that\'s why we are using an average for the Race Shapes . It\'s also why we separately show all the recent adjusted quarter times for each horse -- so you, the handicapper, can decide what information is relevant to today\'s race. Also keep in mind that how much speed a horse shows today can be a function of tactics -- trainers and jockeys handicap too.

[riggy1]

Good afternoon Jerry,

I am about to set up an on-line account. Who would you recommend? Are rebates available.

Thanks,
Riggy 1

[TGJB]

Riggy-- Call me at 212-741-3886.