Maybe Frankel had it right after all with Empire Maker

[covelj70]

Essentially, he admitted that he didn\'t have the horse fully cranked for the Derby because he wanted to save something for the Preakness and the Belmont, he thought the horse was that good.

Now, as it turns out, he had the foot bruise in the days leading up to the Derby so it all became irrelevant but looking back on this TC (and the last few triple crowns), I think the only way that someone is going to win the triple crown is to run a race in the Derby that\'s not over the top and still win.  That could happen by chance or it could be planned (as Frankel tried to do) but I think that\'s the only way it\'s going to happen.

There was a good back and forth discussion on the board before the Belmont about the fact that once the horse puts in the huge number that they need a certain amount of time off (maybe 8 weeks or so) to be fully recovered before they can run again and not be impacted by huge effort for the next several races.  Given that 8 weeks is never going to be possible with the triple crown, I think the most likely way to see a triple corwn is for a horse to win the Derby with a lower number and build on that for the next few races. Even if we added another week in between the TC races like some are suggesting, it wouldn\'t have mattered with the kind of effort that BB put in in the Derby.  Once he ran the 4.75 negative in the Derby and ran again two weeks later, his fate was sealed.  It didn\'t matter what number he ran in the Preakness, just that he ran.

So, it\'s likely that the next triple crown winner (whenver that may be) does something like a 0 or 1 negative in his 2 year old season (not so over the top that it hurts the horse but I good number to run back to early in his 3 year old year).  Then, preps for the TC and runs the last prep with a 0 or so.  Then, pairs the 0 or 1 negative in the Derby and goes from there to achieve the normal improvement that you would expect from a 2 year old top to a 3 year old top to win the Preakness and the Belmont.  

I think that\'s the most likely scenario where we would see a triple crown winner anytime in the next 10 years.

[MO]

There won\'t be another Triple Crown winner - ever. Not the way it is set up, and frankly, it\'s a good thing.

[ronwar]

I think that was Bafferts thinking with Point Given too.