Inside Posts in Sprints

[huck]

We often talk about outside posts in 2 turn races and how much of a disadvantage it will be to be caught wide. I am curious if people think it is a negative to be in the 1 or 2 hole in sprint races. I know this might vary a great deal from track to track,  I am more curious about the major circuits(Cal, N.Y.etc.). I am also wondering how people quantify it, or how many lengths it might cost,if any. If you were to think that not being one of fastest horses early was a negative (and on the rail), this would be a situation that would make race shapes very interesting. Basically, do you think being inside lowers your probabilty of winning.

[fkach]

I think you have to watch a lot of races to determine what\'s going on because not only does it vary from track to track and distance to distance, it varies from day to day.  

These are the two specific circumstances that may still have some betting value associated with them. (of course if the rail is dead, that\'s an entirely different issue)

1. The inside post tends to be a little tougher on first time starters and other very inexperienced horses. Some horses like that run much better next time out.

2. In a race loaded with early speed types, the public tends to discount all of them a little on the assumption they will compromise each others\' chances. My experience suggests that if the best speed also happens to have the rail, he will often overcome the pace disadvantage and outrun his odds because he can hang the  other speeds out and sometimes even shake loose of them around the turn.

[Lost Cause]

If it is the dominant speed in a race I would love the inside post.  If there is a stalking type that can stay close to the horse on the inside I have seen far too often on the NYRA circuit where that inside horse gets beat by that outside speed/stalker.  I think the same holds true for a lot of tracks.  You have to pay attention to any biases that may change this though (ie...the golden/dead rail).