Let Me Put It This Way

[TGJB]

Let\'s say you have the top pitcher in the majors, and he\'s a power pitcher. And let\'s say the rules in the post season are different from the regular season, for some arbitrary reason-- he has to pitch the whole game, three times, and go on 3 days rest the last two. He looks great the first time, good the second time-- are you sure he\'s going to be that good the third time? And oh yeah, the opposing pitcher gets to skip the middle game.

(And yes, one of the variables here is Clemens/steroids).

There are reasons that horses don\'t win Triple Crowns. And they sometimes don\'t have anything to do with ability. There have been very few Derby winners in the last 30 years that have been able to put in efforts at or near their tops in all three races. Two were trained by Baffert.

[Uncle Buck]

If the pitcher is facing an all star cast of MLB sluggers I downgrade his chances. If he\'s facing a bus full of triple A farm clubs, I like him a lot to pitch three shutouts

[Silver Charm]

YOU CALLING THIS YEARS CROP A BUS FULL OF TRIPLE A FARMERS???


How kind of you......

[Uncle Buck]

Not only can this pitcher throw 110mph GAS, he\'s ten times smarter than the hitters and stays calm amidst calamity.

The Triple A boys are runnin to the bush leagues so they won\'t have to see his heater

[smalltimer]

The TC races are not dissimilar to the Olympics.

During the year, the athletes take 6 weeks to prepare for a meet.  They do their prelim and then run in the finals. Then they take a breather and resume training.

They go to the Olympic Trials.  They have their prelim, then their semi-finals and then they run the finals. Now they have to muster strong energy in shorter periods of recovery. They qualify, yet they\'ve expended energy, both mental and physical.

They get to the Olympics, they have their prelims, their semi\'s and then the finals. Every leg a potentially stronger group of competitors.  If you had a special rule where 50% of the field got a bye in the middle round, you\'ll get their best shots even though they may not be as talented. They\'ll be more rested, they were preparing for that final event while others were expending energy to qualify.    

Their training, pharmacology, restoration, level of competition, their surroundings, the surface they run on, everything is different.

The grind of the repetition many times results in hamstring pulls, false starts, hitting the wall for no apparent reason.  Perfectly trained athletes, all of them. That 30 second spurt at absolute 100% energy jumps up and bites you in the ass because they may not have been required to use total 100% effort for an extended periof of time.

They\'re not machines, they mal-function due to additional stresses.

Thirty years before Secretariat won the Triple Crown, now 30 years since Affirmed, it looks easy on paper.

It can happen for no reason.  Just an observation.

[ajkreider]

Sprinters are also known to shut it down in a semi-final, once they\'ve done enough to move on.  That\'s why using the semifinal time to predict the winner of the final is flawed.

Just saying . . .

[miff]

JB,

What?? you should look at the figs run by Real Quiet and Silver Charm, both very close to their norm/top in their Belmonts.A half length more and two TC Winners and neither regressed in the Belmont.

Smarty, another who missed close, butchered by Elliot and Bailey.Your historical analysis is not valid as it relates to spacing/efforts for the Baffert pair and is pure speculation as to how BB will handle the 3 races in 35 days.


Mike

[tmon]

Mathewson\'s Giants won the 1905 World Series over the Philadelphia Athletics. Mathewson was the starting pitcher in Game 1 and pitched a 4-hit shutout for the victory. Three days later, with the series tied 1-1, he pitched another 4-hit shutout. Then, two days later in Game 5, he threw a 6-hit shutout to clinch the series for the Giants. In a span of only six days, Mathewson had pitched three complete games without allowing a run.

[TGJB]

Miff-- my point was that the two Baffert\'s were the ones that DID run their race  in all three-- very rare. As to the \"butchered ride\"-- there\'s always a reason. Stepped on a pin, stumbled out of the gate, moved too early, worked too fast, broke down... if BB gets beat, there will be a \"reason\".

[TGJB]

Okay, let me try it yet another way-- do you think he\'ll throw 110 mph gas in his third nine inning start in 8 days?

The level of competition is an entirely different question. At that point you are into how far back can he go and win, and how far back WILL he go. And that is a guessing game.

[Lost Cause]

tmon Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Mathewson\'s Giants won the 1905 World Series over
> the Philadelphia Athletics. Mathewson was the
> starting pitcher in Game 1 and pitched a 4-hit
> shutout for the victory. Three days later, with
> the series tied 1-1, he pitched another 4-hit
> shutout. Then, two days later in Game 5, he threw
> a 6-hit shutout to clinch the series for the
> Giants. In a span of only six days, Mathewson had
> pitched three complete games without allowing a
> run.


Was he throwing 100 MPH fastballs?  Let him throw that fast and pitch back and see if the scenario stays the same..

[P-Dub]

Baseball was a completely different game back then.  Not a good comparison.

[Flighted Iron]

Maybe  Big Brown just Pitched his third game? Consulted with a gentleman
Who\'s very astute and subscribes to TG,and his thoughts on the matter lean
towards the Preakness being a healthy bounce and the horse could move forward
to a neg 2. In theory if he does run a neg 2,with proper spacing could he repeat
the cycle and head to a new top?

Thanks,
MJS

[fkach]

I agree 100% that the further a horse is into his form cycle without a freshening, the greater the chances that he\'s going to go off form.  

However, I don\'t think it\'s exactly correct to look at the historical record of failure in the Triple Crown and translate that into the chances of BB going backwards in a couple of weeks. (not saying you are doing that, but that is the temptation)

Alter your example to include whether the pitcher is lefty or righty and put the game in a ballpark where his side is at a huge disadvantage. The stats will look a lot worse than they would in a neutral park or park where his side is at an advantage.  

One of the problems with analyzing the historical record is that some of the horses that tried were HIGHLY suspect to get 12F. So if they didn\'t fire their top FIGURE in the Belmont, IMO you can\'t start with the assumption that they all wore down and couldn\'t hold their form. Some of them were probably still in good enough shape to fire another top effort but faltered because the distance was not ideal or was outside their range (wrong ball park).

I realize that handicappers have different styles and not everyone is going to agree about any particular trip, but some of them are so obvious that to ignore them is almost delusional.

IMO, if you are trying to calculate the probability of BB going backwards in the Belmont you have to consider the fact that:

1. This will only be his 5th start of the year and not his 6th or 7th.

2. He ran reasonably fast in the Preakness, but did not go all out like a couple of others that were pressed hard all the way through the stretch.

3. I personally can\'t evaluate his pedigree for 12F because I don\'t have that skill set, but I have seen nothing in his past performances that suggests he can\'t handle 12F. I have seen problems with some of the others that faltered though.

4. Some of the horses that won the first two were one horse among many relatively equal horses that either through good fortune or proper training peaked on the right day. People have been talking about BB being special since his turf debut. He\'s not a horse that got good all of a sudden.

5. The gap between BB and his competition is much larger than is typically the case.

All that said, I agree that BB is going to be overbet in the Belmont because the public is still jumping on the bandwagon at a point where the risks are rising because he\'s further along in his form cycle and you just never know whether they will like 12F. But IMO the risk of him losing because of form issues is lower than implied by the recent historical \"figure record\" when it is looked at in isolation.

[imallin]

Smarty Jones, Real Quiet and a few others who were going for TC glory lost the TC because they moved too soon and were caught late while being on an open lead in the stretch. BB is more of a \'puller\' and is likely to be making a move sooner rather than later. Watch the Preakness again and you\'ll see that BB was really pulling the jock along early but then Kent settled him down and he was able to keep a high cruising speed going.

Will Kent be patient enough this time around? Or, will patience get BB beat? Maybe this is the horse who needs to open up a huge lead approaching the top of the lane and try and hang on...maybe if he is rated/overrated, he might not have the same kick coming home at 1 and one half.

Some random thoughts.

1) In a few of his starts, he\'s actually stumbled briefly coming out of the gate. The connections realize he\'s not the best gate horse...a stumble, like War Emblem did, can be his undoing. And, since he\'s had a lot of races crammed in a short period, his legs may not be as strong as they were earlier in the year.

2) He\'s a free runner. He comes out of the gate and doesn\'t go slow...he goes fast at a high cruising speed. If he goes TOO fast, he\'ll get caught. How fast is too fast is not going to be known till they hit the wire.

3) Will he be \'fit enough\'? I dont believe he had a published workout in between the Derby and Preakness and as of this moment, i dont believe he\'s had a published work since the Preakness. Will he have ANY work, even 3 furlongs, before the big day? This means that he\'s had a minute and change of hard exercise (the preakness) in 5 weeks. If you want to \'freshen one up\' and keep him on edge, you have to sacrifice a little conditioning....you can\'t have both. All the others can train normally up to the race and train with zero pressure on their conditioner while BB has to be handled with kid gloves and that means, less training than normal.


4) Never felt a challenge. As good as BB is, he\'s never had to fight with another horse. He seems really smart and professional, so it shouldn\'t be a problem, but when someone looks you in the eye, all bets can be off. In BB\'s last two races, he stalked a frontrunner who came to a dead stop. Bob Black jack in the Derby was on the lead and came to a halt and let BB cruise right by...and Gayego in the Preakness came to a dead stop (and boxed in a few rivals in the process) and let BB walk right by him without a fight. What will happen if BB makes his move on the far turn and the leader says \"no\"? BB will be head to head with the frontrunner on the far turn and in a battle....who knows what will happen if he\'s in a dogfight.....do you want to find out at 1-5 or 1-9?