Woodbine Picks, Races #1 and #3

[sekrah]

Will post rest of card in about 30-45 minutes.


1st Race

Wide Open so I\'m going to go after the value here. There\'s a couple horses that are coming in with 2nd race off layoff that are tough to read.  Going to use  #2 MOLINARO (Currently 6-1), and #6 SMILING JORDAN (10-1).. The heavily bet #1, #3, and #4 are must uses.


2nd Race - 2f 2yo Sprint, Pass


3rd Race - #1 OPENING REMARK (5/2 ML) and #6 PINEAPPLE EXPRESS (4/1 ML) look like the keys..   Don\'t see alot of bomber potential in here except maybe the #3 CUE THE HIGHLIGHTS (12-1 ML) who is coming in off a long layoff with alot of backclass.

[sekrah]

4th Race - #5 AUTOBAHN GIRL (7/2 ML) looks to explode here to pair or set a new top.  She has to be the key.  #4 PARRSBORO GOLD (10-1 ML) is the value to hit the exotics.  The 9/5 morning line favorite #1 SERENADING doesn\'t look appetizing to me at all and is a solid chalk throwout IMO.  There\'s a few coming in off 6 month layoffs that look tough to read.  #2 CALLWOOD DANCER (8-1 ML), #3 THE NIAGARA QUEEN (5/2 ML), and #6 SANS SOUCI ISLAND are all coming in off the layoff and I would not leave them out of any exotics.

5th Race - #2 HOT TRUCK HONEY (12-1 ML) and #3 EMMA AIN\'T BLUFFING (3-1 ML) looks like my over and underneath keys here as most of the serious competition is out in the #11 MUD PUDDLE (12-1 ML), #12 HIGH THOUGHTS SLEW (8-1 ML), and #14 IMPRESSIVE CAT (12-1 ML) posts.  We\'ll use those in the exotics.  The #8 LONG HAIRED JENNY (4-1 ML) is another ML favorite and we probably have to throw her in to hit the board.  #4 ASCLIPIANOULLA (20-1 ML) becomes interesting and should get a perfect trip IMO.   There\'s big dollar potential in this race but a ticket might be getting expensive.

6th Race - Several tricky layoff horses here as well, #4 BONNE BAY (5/2 ML) looks legit, but #3 CLASSY LANDLADY (12-1 ML) and #5 MOUNT ROYER (10-1 ML) are definently value plays here and are must uses in exotics.  #9 HOT SUMMER WIND (7/2 ML) can\'t be left out either.


Rest of the card in a little bit..

[P-Dub]

sekrah Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Will post rest of card in about 30-45 minutes.
>
>
> 1st Race
>
> Wide Open so I\'m going to go after the value here.
> There\'s a couple horses that are coming in with
> 2nd race off layoff that are tough to read.  Going
> to use  #2 MOLINARO (Currently 6-1), and #6
> SMILING JORDAN (10-1).. The heavily bet #1, #3,
> and #4 are must uses.
>
>
> 2nd Race - 2f 2yo Sprint, Pass
>
>
> 3rd Race - #1 OPENING REMARK (5/2 ML) and #6
> PINEAPPLE EXPRESS (4/1 ML) look like the keys..  
> Don\'t see alot of bomber potential in here except
> maybe the #3 CUE THE HIGHLIGHTS (12-1 ML) who is
> coming in off a long layoff with alot of
> backclass.

4th Race - #5 AUTOBAHN GIRL (7/2 ML) looks to explode here to pair or set a new top. She has to be the key. #4 PARRSBORO GOLD (10-1 ML) is the value to hit the exotics. The 9/5 morning line favorite #1 SERENADING doesn\'t look appetizing to me at all and is a solid chalk throwout IMO. There\'s a few coming in off 6 month layoffs that look tough to read. #2 CALLWOOD DANCER (8-1 ML), #3 THE NIAGARA QUEEN (5/2 ML), and #6 SANS SOUCI ISLAND are all coming in off the layoff and I would not leave them out of any exotics.

5th Race - #2 HOT TRUCK HONEY (12-1 ML) and #3 EMMA AIN\'T BLUFFING (3-1 ML) looks like my over and underneath keys here as most of the serious competition is out in the #11 MUD PUDDLE (12-1 ML), #12 HIGH THOUGHTS SLEW (8-1 ML), and #14 IMPRESSIVE CAT (12-1 ML) posts. We\'ll use those in the exotics. The #8 LONG HAIRED JENNY (4-1 ML) is another ML favorite and we probably have to throw her in to hit the board. #4 ASCLIPIANOULLA (20-1 ML) becomes interesting and should get a perfect trip IMO. There\'s big dollar potential in this race but a ticket might be getting expensive.

6th Race - Several tricky layoff horses here as well, #4 BONNE BAY (5/2 ML) looks legit, but #3 CLASSY LANDLADY (12-1 ML) and #5 MOUNT ROYER (10-1 ML) are definently value plays here and are must uses in exotics. #9 HOT SUMMER WIND (7/2 ML) can\'t be left out either.
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Are you Len R. in disguise?? Honestly bro, in R:1 you mention 2 keys then talk about must using 3 other horses in exotics.  Thats 5 horses mentioned as using for a 7 horse race.

I read your previous posts and was going to mention JBs request about cluttering up the board but left it alone.  JB mentioned it again shortly thereafter.  Can I make a suggestion??

First, most of us probably don\'t play Woodbine (sheesh tho, what big purses they have). Here in No. Cal, I just woke up about an hour ago. If you must discuss an East Coast track, Belmont would be a pretty good choice, perhaps Monmouth.

Secondly, your comments are pretty vague unless you have the sheets right in front of you. You make many general comments that put me to sleep. Take for example Race 4.  You mention a  horse ready to explode/set a new top or is the value to hit the exotics. Another is a favorite that doesn\'t look appetizing and is a solid chalk throwout.  Then you mention 3 additional horses coming off of long layoffs that you wouldn\'t throw out of the exotics.  Great. So,  in addition to not adding any reasons why you feel this way about these horses, you give no information about structuring a bet with these 5 horses that should be used.  Dude, what is the point behind a post like this??

Race 5 you mention 2 horses as over/under keys, mentioning that most of the serious competition is parked wide (who all happen to be close to double digit ML). So use them.  Ok, good enough.  You then mention a THIRD horse at 4/1 we probably have to throw in to hit the board.  You mention yet another longshot that \"becomes interesting\" and should get a perfect trip.  

Race 6 has comments such as \"looks legit\", \"can\'t be left out either\", and my personal favorite when I hear it on any telecast or website...\"VALUE plays\".

I admire your passion for the game, but these posts...what is the point. Tell me why you have these opinions.  Why will a horse explode, why a must use, why a toss, how will you construct a wager with 5 horses.  Does the potential return justify the financial outlay using all of these horses??  Without any specific information,  whether its patterns ot wagering, I don\'t see the point.

[sekrah]

Umm.. I\'m just picking the horses and and hoping someone adds something constructive.  I don\'t feel like writing out my analysis for every horse.

I combined my picks into less posts than previous to remove the \"clutter\".

I usually play Belmont, Monmouth, Pimlico, but it\'s pouring rain all along the east coast and cards are littered with scratches.

What is the big deal about people just posting their picks and who they are using?

[P-Dub]

sekrah Wrote:
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> Umm.. I\'m just picking the horses and and hoping
> someone adds something constructive.  I don\'t feel
> like writing out my analysis for every horse.
>
> What is the big deal about people just posting
> their picks and who they are using?

Instead of going over an entire card, pick out a race you feel offers a good opportunity. Go over the race with regards to numbers, patterns, etc.. That may solicit some constructive dialogue from others, similar to ROTW  discussions.

[TGJB]

Right. Especially if it\'s at a major racetrack, or a big race, where a lot of people are looking at the same race. That\'s why we pick the races we do for ROTW.