One ex-pro's take on the derby

[mjellish]

I don\'t see it that way but to each his own.  Other than BB, I think Cowboy Cal is the most likely front runner just because of his style - and he is not that fast.

[fkach]

Pace figures are made in a variety of ways. Some try to estimate if the pace was fast or slow relative to the final time, some measure the early speed of the horses, still others measure the velocity for various calls.

If a figure is measuring the pace of a race relative to its final time in a route, the figure might suggest the pace was fast but it could still be slow relative to the types of pace you would see in shorter distances. Gayego is coming out of a fast paced race, but the absolute times were not scorching. (I hope that makes sense)

When having these types of conversations, it\'s important to know what the other people are looking at.

IMHO, a number of the speedy types in the Derby are coming out of fast paced races, but the absolute times they ran adjusted for track speed etc... were not particularly fast when you think in terms of real one dimensional speed horses.

I believe Big Brown and Bob Black Jack are the 2 fastest horses. Regardless of the pace of his last couple, BBJ has high quality sprint speed if he wants to use it. Tale of Ekati also has some good speed, but I don\'t expect him to use it because of his running style and because chasing War Pass demonstrated quite clearly that he will stagger home at 10F if he tries that again.

Look at the Thoro-Graph Race Shapes for a good indication of pure speed.

[jmetro]

mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
My plan therefore is to Key BB to win
> along with either DC or probably CJ (was
> considering GA but I think he will get the rail)
> to hit board.  I am going to split the rest of the
> field in half and play them accordingly as primary
> contenders and non-contenders to hit the board.  I
> plan to play heavier on the primary contender
> combinations than the others, but I will have
> every combination with BB and my two keys over and
> under.  I will then have my supers as well, which
> should make up for the smaller tri\'s if a real
> bomber hits the board. And overall I plan to play
> more scratch on the combos involving DC since they
> will offer superior payoffs to the ones with CJ.
> Going to lay out 7k overall and if I hit it will
> be for 80-250k.  
>
> So much for taking 5/2.
>
> Happy hunting at the IRS windows!

Congrats on what was surely a large day!

[TGJB]

I\'m guessing Jimbo and Michael may have hit the super, since they liked DOC and TOE, and may not have thrown out BB.

[mjellish]

I hit for a cool 334,000 before taxes, 224,000 after taxes.  I have the IRS paperwork to prove it.  Laid out the bet just I said I was going to, Keyed BB with DC & CJ over and under the other main contenders in the TRI\'s and Supers with All on the bottom.  

Jerry, I upped my TRI bet on the BB/EB/DC and BB/DC/EB in part because of your numbers and seminar.  


All I can say is what a glorious day!



mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
My plan therefore is to Key BB to win
> along with either DC or probably CJ (was
> considering GA but I think he will get the rail)
> to hit board. I am going to split the rest of the
> field in half and play them accordingly as primary
> contenders and non-contenders to hit the board. I
> plan to play heavier on the primary contender
> combinations than the others, but I will have
> every combination with BB and my two keys over and
> under. I will then have my supers as well, which
> should make up for the smaller tri\'s if a real
> bomber hits the board. And overall I plan to play
> more scratch on the combos involving DC since they
> will offer superior payoffs to the ones with CJ.
> Going to lay out 7k overall and if I hit it will
> be for 80-250k.
>
> So much for taking 5/2.
>
> Happy hunting at the IRS windows!

Congrats on what was surely a large day!

[big18741]

Beautiful.

Great insight on Big Brown.You laid it all out and called your shot.

                   Congrats

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Yes, I agree mr. jellish called his shot. He got them this time.


Silver, agree with your conclusion. Keeneland and Turfway form is not a good barometer, mr jellish had those Keeneland horses wheeled however.

On second thought...I\'ve never understood these \"shotgun\" guys. You never hit the quail shooting at the whole covey.

Can anyone really decipher this mishmash?

Over/Under is first and second and there\'s lots of hesitancy with Denis of Cork. Jerry, you\'re the host Chop Buster, take this on:

As far as I can tell these two stand out above the others. My plan therefore is to Key BB to win along with either DC or probably CJ (was considering GA but I think he will get the rail) to hit board. I am going to split the rest of the field in half and play them accordingly as primary contenders and non-contenders to hit the board. I plan to play heavier on the primary contender combinations than the others, but I will have every combination with BB and my two keys over and under. I will then have my supers as well, which should make up for the smaller tri\'s if a real bomber hits the board. And overall I plan to play more scratch on the combos involving DC since they will offer superior payoffs to the ones with CJ. Going to lay out 7k overall and if I hit it will be for 80-250k.[/color]

I don\'t think so,

Stick around for the Preakness mr. jellish and pour it in again.

big18741 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Beautiful.
>
> Great insight on Big Brown.You laid it all out and
> called your shot.
>
>                    Congrats

[mjellish]

Hey,

Anyone who really knows this game and has done it for a living for an extended period of time will also know that it would have been as easy for me to get this one wrong as I did right.  I had all my eggs in one basket, so to speak.  Next year I may do the same and not cash a ticket.  So please don\'t anyone accuse me of trying to sound like a know-it-all.  I have too much respect for my fellow horse players and for everyone that posts on this board, especially the regulars.  The idea, in my opinion, of this board is for us to share knowledge and insight -when willing- about this game and Thoro-Graph figs.  Hopefully we can all learn and therefore get better along the way.  This time I happened to get this one right, in fact very right, but so what...

As far as the mismash goes, I don\'t know what more you would expect me to post.  I\'m never going to make a post online, ever, anywhere, with a bet all laid out for just everyone to see.  I shared my thoughts because many of you shared yours, and I appreciated them.  So I decided to chime in my two cents as well.  I think I made it clear enough that I was keying BB in first, along with either DC or CJ to hit the board, and then grouping the rest of the field into contenders and non-contenders.  The contenders I chose were EB,MON,TE,CV,VI,PY and ZF, so I played those over and under in the TRI with CJ and DC for big money, and also in the super with ALL.  I also played the tickets that had CJ and PY on them in the super only because these were bound to be vastly underlaid in the TRI.  I also played the non-contenders in more or less the same way but in the Supers only.  These were more or less saver bets that would pay enough anyway.  So the bet was basically this: If I am dead right about some of these I going to hit a big TRI plus the Super, and if some longshot one-paced wonder hits the board I will at least hit the super and that will pay enough anyway.  I also played all the DC combos for more $ ratio wise than the ones involving CJ because I rated both of these horses near even and figured the DC combos would pay more, so that is where I wanted my money to be.

So with all of this being said this is the last thing I have to say about anyone that thinks I\'m BS\'ing about this.  I have all the IRS paperwork to prove the above.  I should very shortly also have a photo from Canterbury Park\'s marketing department that will show me and my friends who came along for the ride sitting in a private room with all the CASH spread out in front of us.  It was an awesome day!  So don\'t waste anyone elses time and space on this board.  Send me a private message along with your email address and I will personaly send you a scan of my IRS paperwork and the photo (provided I receive the photo).  Case closed.

As an aside, in addition to putting a huge amount of CASH in all of my friends hands and changing a few people\'s lives, I made a very nice score for my family and I.  Most everyone in my group offered me a \"tip\" or piece of their winnings, which is the class thing to do.  But in addition to refusing all \"tips\", I also threw done for 4 bottles of nice bubbly as this is ALSO the class thing to do when you make a big score.  I won plenty for myself anyway.

Happy Hunting,

MJ  

This is a tough game and I am fortunate that it all came together for me in this case.

Regards,


-Chuckles said:
Yes, I agree mr. jellish called his shot. He got them this time.


Silver, agree with your conclusion. Keeneland and Turfway form is not a good barometer, mr jellish had those Keeneland horses wheeled however.

On second thought...I\'ve never understood these \"shotgun\" guys. You never hit the quail shooting at the whole covey.

Can anyone really decipher this mishmash?

Over/Under is first and second and there\'s lots of hesitancy with Denis of Cork. Jerry, you\'re the host Chop Buster, take this on:

As far as I can tell these two stand out above the others. My plan therefore is to Key BB to win along with either DC or probably CJ (was considering GA but I think he will get the rail) to hit board. I am going to split the rest of the field in half and play them accordingly as primary contenders and non-contenders to hit the board. I plan to play heavier on the primary contender combinations than the others, but I will have every combination with BB and my two keys over and under. I will then have my supers as well, which should make up for the smaller tri\'s if a real bomber hits the board. And overall I plan to play more scratch on the combos involving DC since they will offer superior payoffs to the ones with CJ. Going to lay out 7k overall and if I hit it will be for 80-250k.

I don\'t think so,

Stick around for the Preakness mr. jellish and pour it in again.

big18741 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Beautiful.
>
> Great insight on Big Brown.You laid it all out and
> called your shot.
>
> Congrats

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

After a re-read will reluctantly give you credit for the cash. Many of us here didn\'t need a clocker friend to steer us in the right direction.

I think you cashed in the neighborhood of 35-1, though Jerry may tell you otherwise.

I had 69-1 on the perfecta with a substantially smaller investment.

Congrats, but we all definitely want you and Dpatent in the pools next time. Don\'t forget to come back now, ya hear?

 





mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Hey,
>
> Anyone who really knows this game and has done it
> for a living for an extended period of time will
> also know that it would have been as easy for me
> to get this one wrong as I did right.  I had all
> my eggs in one basket, so to speak.  Next year I
> may do the same and not cash a ticket.  So please
> don\'t anyone accuse me of trying to sound like a
> know-it-all.  I have too much respect for my
> fellow horse players and for everyone that posts
> on this board, especially the regulars.  The idea,
> in my opinion, of this board is for us to share
> knowledge and insight -when willing- about this
> game and Thoro-Graph figs.  Hopefully we can all
> learn and therefore get better along the way.
> This time I happened to get this one right, in
> fact very right, but so what...
>
> As far as the mismash goes, I don\'t know what more
> you would expect me to post.  I\'m never going to
> make a post online, ever, anywhere, with a bet all
> laid out for just everyone to see.  I shared my
> thoughts because many of you shared yours, and I
> appreciated them.  So I decided to chime in my two
> cents as well.  I think I made it clear enough
> that I was keying BB in first, along with either
> DC or CJ to hit the board, and then grouping the
> rest of the field into contenders and
> non-contenders.  The contenders I chose were
> EB,MON,TE,CV,VI,PY and ZF, so I played those over
> and under in the TRI with CJ and DC for big money,
> and also in the super with ALL.  I also played the
> tickets that had CJ and PY on them in the super
> only because these were bound to be vastly
> underlaid in the TRI.  I also played the
> non-contenders in more or less the same way but in
> the Supers only.  These were more or less saver
> bets that would pay enough anyway.  So the bet was
> basically this: If I am dead right about some of
> these I going to hit a big TRI plus the Super, and
> if some longshot one-paced wonder hits the board I
> will at least hit the super and that will pay
> enough anyway.  I also played all the DC combos
> for more $ ratio wise than the ones involving CJ
> because I rated both of these horses near even and
> figured the DC combos would pay more, so that is
> where I wanted my money to be.
>
> So with all of this being said this is the last
> thing I have to say about anyone that thinks I\'m
> BS\'ing about this.  I have all the IRS paperwork
> to prove the above.  I should very shortly also
> have a photo from Canterbury Park\'s marketing
> department that will show me and my friends who
> came along for the ride sitting in a private room
> with all the CASH spread out in front of us.  It
> was an awesome day!  So don\'t waste anyone elses
> time and space on this board.  Send me a private
> message along with your email address and I will
> personaly send you a scan of my IRS paperwork and
> the photo (provided I receive the photo).  Case
> closed.
>
> As an aside, in addition to putting a huge amount
> of CASH in all of my friends hands and changing a
> few people\'s lives, I made a very nice score for
> my family and I.  Most everyone in my group
> offered me a \"tip\" or piece of their winnings,
> which is the class thing to do.  But in addition
> to refusing all \"tips\", I also threw done for 4
> bottles of nice bubbly as this is ALSO the class
> thing to do when you make a big score.  I won
> plenty for myself anyway.
>
> Happy Hunting,
>
> MJ  
>
> This is a tough game and I am fortunate that it
> all came together for me in this case.
>
> Regards,
>
>
> -Chuckles said:
> Yes, I agree mr. jellish called his shot. He got
> them this time.
>
>
> Silver, agree with your conclusion. Keeneland and
> Turfway form is not a good barometer, mr jellish
> had those Keeneland horses wheeled however.
>
> On second thought...I\'ve never understood these
> \"shotgun\" guys. You never hit the quail shooting
> at the whole covey.
>
> Can anyone really decipher this mishmash?
>
> Over/Under is first and second and there\'s lots of
> hesitancy with Denis of Cork. Jerry, you\'re the
> host Chop Buster, take this on:
>
> As far as I can tell these two stand out above the
> others. My plan therefore is to Key BB to win
> along with either DC or probably CJ (was
> considering GA but I think he will get the rail)
> to hit board. I am going to split the rest of the
> field in half and play them accordingly as primary
> contenders and non-contenders to hit the board. I
> plan to play heavier on the primary contender
> combinations than the others, but I will have
> every combination with BB and my two keys over and
> under. I will then have my supers as well, which
> should make up for the smaller tri\'s if a real
> bomber hits the board. And overall I plan to play
> more scratch on the combos involving DC since they
> will offer superior payoffs to the ones with CJ.
> Going to lay out 7k overall and if I hit it will
> be for 80-250k.
>
> I don\'t think so,
>
> Stick around for the Preakness mr. jellish and
> pour it in again.
>
> big18741 Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Beautiful.
> >
> > Great insight on Big Brown.You laid it all out
> and
> > called your shot.
> >
> > Congrats

[TGJB]

CTC-- you truly are acting like an asshole, knock it off. I don\'t know what return Jellish got but I\'ll take him at his word, he has crediblity given the way he has acted. Meanwhile, you are now going to claim your play on the Derby was one exacta, cold? You listed what, 9 horses as uses in exotics? You didn\'t play tris, supers, win bets, or any other exactas? Nonsense.

[richiebee]

mjellish Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------

> As an aside, in addition to putting a huge amount
> of CASH in all of my friends hands and changing a
> few people\'s lives, I made a very nice score for
> my family and I.  Most everyone in my group
> offered me a \"tip\" or piece of their winnings,
> which is the class thing to do.  But in addition
> to refusing all \"tips\", I also threw done for 4
> bottles of nice bubbly as this is ALSO the class
> thing to do when you make a big score.  I won
> plenty for myself anyway.
>
> Happy Hunting,
>
> MJ  
>
> This is a tough game and I am fortunate that it
> all came together for me in this case.

MJ:

My hat is off to you, sir.

Not so much for a very large score, but for the acknowledgment of \"friends\"
and \"family\", and for being humble enough to acknowledge the toughness of the
game and the role that luck plays in having success at it.

[imallin]

Jellish, congrats on your called shot and hit.

We don\'t need to get carried away however. If a person bets the favorite from post 20 coming off a race where he drifted all over the track and then shows up with front bandages for the first time, you have to tip your hat. Not my style. I\'d rather toss that horse out and go for the gusto. If BB had fell apart with bad feet or bad legs or a bad trip or what-have-you and Giacomo-boxcars came in, i\'d feel pretty silly holding chalk tickets.

I do admire the conviction. Make a pick, bet your money and either win or lose. That\'s the way its done.

Not my style to bet on the fave from post 20, but if its your style and it works for you, than its the right thing. There\'s no one way to beat this game, you gotta do what works for you.

[richiebee]

Imallin--

I think that the Brilliance! of MJ\'s bet was the belief--supported by
information from an on track observer that he trusted-- that Denis of Cork
would be part of the number.

By \"keying\" DoC MJ was able to enjoy some \"gusto\" even with the chalk on top.

[SoCalMan2]

I think another aspect that is important to remember is the consequences of singling the favorite only in the top position.  I often get castigated on this board for that strategy, but, if you play the favorite exclusively singled on top, you can get yourself some very generous payments under the right circumstances.  The best place to do this is Southern California.  All you need is a large field, a large pool, a reasonable take, and a heavy favorite which you feel is exceptionally strong.  What happens is that a lot of money goes into the pool on the heavy favorite in 2nd, 3rd, and 4th positions and that money is as up for grabs as money bet on other horses.  All one needs to do is review charts from SoCal over a period of time (especially from before the advent of the dime supers) and you will see how the strong favorite on top can still lead to outsized super payoffs.  This derby was a good example of this principle.  Of course, you only want to do this in races where you believe the strong favorite has an exceptionally strong chance of winning.  More times than not, the favorite is too vulnerable to employ such a strategy.  The big debate in THIS derby (as highlighted by Jellish\'s first post) was whether or not Big Brown was exceptionally strong or vulnerable.  Once you took a position that he was exceptionally strong, in effect your trifectas turn into exactas and your superfectas turn into trifectas and, with some good long priced keys, you can spread quite a bit.  I think the fact that no dime supers were allowed really boosted the price of this year\'s super. Imagine how many people would have hit it if they could have spread more underneath for only 10 cents.

[imallin]

Very good points SCM2.

The dime super really hurts large players who can afford to pump thousands of dollars into the bet. The dime super makes the bet 10 times easier to hit, thus, it is ten times more likely to be close to market value.

Also, you have another great point about keying a favorite on top. I employ this strategy quite often in So Cal. The best time to do this is if you have a horse that\'s over even money but less than 5-2. You can key that horse on top in pick 3\'s and pick 4s and really crush it, as this \'lukewarm\' horse isn\'t \'everyone\'s single\'

The question to ask about a favorite is \"is this horse everyone else\'s single\". If you can make a case there\'s another potential single in a pick 4 or pick 6, you can still make money as long as the entire world isn\'t singling the same horse.