Derby Positive/Negative Patterns

[JR]

Of the 7 or so horses JB mentions as live plays, 4 are coming in off of races anywhere from 4 to 11 points off their tops. I thought horses coming in off of a regression was a negative pattern for the Derby. Monarchos comes to mind. He ran something like a 0 or a 1 in the Florida Derby and then bounced to a 3 or so in the Wood. That was read as a negative pattern at the time even though he eventually went on to win. Was the negative read on Monarchos because his Wood was seen as an effort and a 4+ race is seen as a non-effort? Is it simply the Poly factor? Or has the methodology changed?

[TGJB]

Of the ones who are coming in off a race 4 points or more off their tops, 3 raced on poly last time. The other is extremely lightly raced and the jump was huge, so the bounce was predictable-- I would like him less if he ran better last time (especially since he would be shorter).

[JR]

Thanks.