Oaks

[Old Mr. Boston]

I think there are two fillies in the Oaks with patterns that suggest big efforts, Proud Spell and Golden Doc A. Proud Spell paired her 2 year old top in February, made a one point new top in March and then had a small poly regression in her last. Golden Doc A ran a new top in January,followed by a half point new top next out, then a half point regression followed by another half point new top. With the rail and Kent D, she looks ready to move forward and the 12-1 morning line is mighty inviting.

[marcus]

omb- thats sounds right . i like it .  \'Doc at 12-1 or there abouts . i\'ll use eight belles if she stays in the race .  sure a couple others who might be a bit tougher to come up with  could steal it but i\'m feeling good about the race ... i hope to make a small oaks / derby double play p/w 1 x ? with at least one fillie on each half .

[Michael D.]

I don\'t like the race, but after a quick look:

I\'m expecting runs in the \'2\' range from Proud Spell and Pure Clan, but PS will be the big favorite, and PC drew post 11. not sure there is much value there.

Rasierra is going in the right direction, and a run in the \'3\' to \'4\' range is possible. a ground saving trip puts her close at huge odds.

Country Star was an easy toss at even money in the Ashland, but the call is tougher here. has the \'5\' over the cushion last year, and the Empire Maker/Rings a Chime pedigree might be better suited for dirt. Rafael back up. a jump to the \'1\' to \'2\' range? that\'s my call. CS the key.

[Uncle Buck]

I love that call Michael. I\'m keying her as well. The minute I saw her ears go up after crossing the wire in the Hollywood Starlett I let out a resounding \"WOW.\" She wants a 9 furlong race on dirt - big time. In fact - she\'s better suited to run against the boys on Saturday than Eight Belles if you ask me. Much like Pyro -her KEE prep was just to send her around there safely. They\'ve wanted this prize all along. Her run in the Oaks will bear watching in regards to the Derby syth to dirt horses as well. Does she have a 4 or 5 point top in her? I\'m guessing yep.

Her pattern is a lot like Tale of Ekati\'s only a lightly raced version. I can see her exploding tomorrow into the \"1\" or even the \"0\" range.

Here\'s the ticket:
WP - #6
Large Exacatas #6/1,3,5,8,11
Exacta and tri part wheel 6,8/1,3,5,6, 8, 11
Oaks Derby Double:
CS (6) with PYRO (9), CJ (10), DOC (16) and BB (20)
Another Large Double 6,8 W 20
Smallish Oaks Derby Double Spread Play:
6,8,11 with 6,8,9,10,12,16,20

[jimbo66]

Michael D and Buck,

I guess it would be no surprise if Country Star won the race, but you want to play the 2nd favorite to have to make a 3+ point forward move to win the race?  The horse fired fresh in the past, ran well on poly in the past, and is trained by Frankel, who is huge off the layoff.  With those things going for her, she only paired her 2 year old top.  I wouldn\'t be playing Frankel for a 3 point forward move, second off the layoff and the fillie needs it to win, as she has no tactical speed and will likely be wide, unless the red sea parts.  At 7-2 to 4-1, I will pass.

As for Golden Doc, I can\'t blame anybody for taking 12-1 on a fast horse, with a nice inside draw.  But I can\'t help but think this horse is going to run significantly worse on dirt.  This isn\'t like Colonel John, where you can see dirt breeding.  THis is Unusual Heat on top, who is significantly better on turf and synthetic.

Proud Spell is a legit favorite in here and I probably the fillie to beat, but her best figure was sitting second in a four horse race behind a filly who probably is a better sprinter (although classy).  Proud Citizen offspring look like early developers, at least with the small sample so far.

I hate to play a horse that needs a new top to win, but Bsharpsonata looks real good in here to me.  She runs her race whether sprinting or routing, on turf, on poly or on dirt.  Was dead game in winning the GP sprint race and just got outgamed in the Ashland.  She has tactical speed and I could envision a pretty decent trip, even with the outside post, as there isn\'t a ton of speed in the race.  Perhaps sitting 3rd or 4th early, behind Awesome Chic, Elusive Lady and Little belle, none of whom look like contenders.  The pattern looks good enough to have a nice shot at a new top.  i think you get every bit of the ML of 6-1, ensured by the low profile connections.  Put Prado on this filly and she is 3-1 IMO.

[RICH]

I agree, country star at 4-1 is a major underlay to my eyes. But i will say, frankels OUT OF CONTROL in the race before the derby looks great to me, that my friends at 5-1 is better play

[Uncle Buck]

Hi Jimbo. Yes I do want to play her at 7/2 to make a 3 point forward move. Gayego made a 3 point leap to a new top first time poly to dirt. The synth to dirt angle is proven. She\'s also the classiest little gal in the bunch.

Couple that with Bejarano\'s mastery at CD and I\'m all over her, with both fists. I\'m really looking forward to these next two days. More will be revealed...

[albany]

Jimbo:

DRF\'s Clocker\'s Archive has an interesting entry for 4/23. Golden Doc and Bsharp worked 5 furlongs together at CD. Golden Doc started 5 lengths behind Bsharp, but passed her \"under less presure.\" This might suggest that Golden Doc can handle the dirt.

Just something to think about.

Albany

[jimbo66]

Albany,

Thanks for that information.  Very interesting.  I don\'t like to make too much of works, but that is certainly noteworthy.  My first reaction is that it sours me more on Bsharp, than it does push me to Golden Doc A.  As I take a second look over the sheets, Pure Clan looks awfully good.  The post is bad, but I think the move from the Frenchman to Prado makes up for the post, as this better thinks Leparoux is awful.

My Derby pick is 20-1 and climbing offshore, (Tale of Ekati), so I can play 2 doubles and still get value.  Pure Clan and Bsharp, maybe......