? 4 TGJB

[Flighted Iron]

Could you disclose to us what figure you gave Big Brown for the Fl. Derby?

[TGJB]

Only because it was in the Futures package-- neg 3 1/2.

[Flighted Iron]

Much Obliged.

[ronwar]

That\'s Fast!!!

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Jeez Jerry,

I had a suspicion you went that fast, but its still confounding seeing it in print. Thats smoking. I\'ve looked at the charts and though I don\'t see it. I guess you made him about 2 points fast on wide?

I have to surmise that you have Smooth Air Career Topping by multiple points as well.



TGJB Wrote:
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> Only because it was in the Futures package-- neg 3
> 1/2.

[belveondarockz]

i would agree on both horses making a new top making me think imo they will both bounce next out without significant rest!

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

On beaten lengths Smooth Air would be about a -1  Not factoring wide. If the wide is a wash that means Smooth Air with an established pairing top range of about 3 just popped about a 4 point top. Feels funny. So say Smooth air saved more ground and only ran a Zero. It\'s still a 3 point top.

belveondarockz Wrote:
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> i would agree on both horses making a new top
> making me think imo they will both bounce next out
> without significant rest!

[RICH]

Look at Smooth airs works prior to the Florida Derby, Stutts knows what he is doing here, a couple of long works at calder to build the stamina and keep him off the pace, a nice 7f fast work, a blowout work. After the derby he just did a nice mile work at calder, this horse is being trained perfectly to run on derby day. He has the good 2 yr old number to compete. I say this horse races in the second tier and hits the board. The 5 weeks off the Florida only helps his chances, must use for me

[firmturf]

Without watching the race again I thought Smooth Air was 1w 1w in turns. He had the 2 hole that day.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I\'m not the greatest wide calculator, but lets say Smooth Air, did slightly better on avoiding wide. You still have the top two finishers both with big new tops. Thats nervous time for me.

I think BJB compares favorably with a horse like Smarty Jones. (Note, not saying he\'s a Smarty yet.) In that comparison, Smarty\'s first extraordinary race was the Rebel. He ran down Purge in that one and walked away from him. Purge paired his top in that race, indicating that Smarty\'s effort was exceptional. Purge\'s paired top lent credibility to the accuracy of Smarty attaining new levels.

Now on other had Smooth Air made a large new top too. To my way of looking at things there are a couple ways to impeach career tops. One is to find a flaw in the rest of the field. The other is to find a flaw in other horses calculated to have run Career Tops in the same race. (Granting the latter can happen.)

These were Big new tops.

firmturf Wrote:
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> Without watching the race again I thought Smooth
> Air was 1w 1w in turns. He had the 2 hole that
> day.

[TGAB]

Smarty Jones\' first extraordinary effort was his 2nd lifetime--0, 13 days after a debut 5-1/2 as a November 22, 2003 juvenile. All figures are available in the archive. This is certainly not an apt comparison in terms of pattern only in terms of brilliance--they\'re both eqaully as fast at about the same point in time. But the TG sheet for Smarty Jones details healthy, strong, development for a precocious individual. Big Brown is talented as well but sports a much spottier line implying lots of uncertainty. I guess the point is BB compares only nominally with SJ. SJ was a much, much more accomplished race horse both on performance and achievement terms even to this point in time.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Alan,

I glanced at Big Browns sheet the day after the Florida Derby in the Red Board Room. Seem to recall it went about:

2, 0, now negative 3.2

I won\'t argue with your contention that Smarty had a series of races that made it clear he was sound. That said, he did retire two races after the Derby.

I don\'t believe Big Brown has anything serious amiss. He missed some time due to quarter cracks. But heres the rub, you figure boys have been pushing for more and more spacing. Well, you got your wish. The leading colt of the crop last year came into the Derby with only 3 races under his belt. If BJB turns out to be the star of this crop hes following in the same 3 race footsteps. Some speed figure gurus got in Denis of Cork\'s owners ear and told him spacing is what they needed so they passed the Rebel on a track Denis clearly liked for a one-timer on a quirky Hawthorne surface and now shy of graded stakes earnings, lightly raced Denis looks Corked in the No Derby for You bottle. I think we are going to have to get used to handicapping Derbies on light past performances. But thats what you guys wanted.

My point though, had far less to do with Smarty\'s foundation than BRB\'s figure for the Florida Derby. I still think its a little hot and though clearly a top figure I believed it was likely closer to his previous top than removed from it. (Though, I\'m vacillating on it even now and right at this moment am seeing some evidence that Smooth Air did indeed go forward.)

Thats enough for now, its giving me a headache.



TGAB Wrote:
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> Smarty Jones\' first extraordinary effort was his
> 2nd lifetime--0, 13 days after a debut 5-1/2 as a
> November 22, 2003 juvenile. All figures are
> available in the archive. This is certainly not an
> apt comparison in terms of pattern only in terms
> of brilliance--they\'re both eqaully as fast at
> about the same point in time. But the TG sheet for
> Smarty Jones details healthy, strong, development
> for a precocious individual. Big Brown is talented
> as well but sports a much spottier line implying
> lots of uncertainty. I guess the point is BB
> compares only nominally with SJ. SJ was a much,
> much more accomplished race horse both on
> performance and achievement terms even to this
> point in time.