This is your life

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

The year is 2005. You were there when 4 key Derby preps were run in solid negative numbers. Respectively, they were:

The Wood
The Illinois Derby
The Bluegrass and
The Arkansas Derby

The winners scored out
-5
-2
-3
-2

I referred to them at the time as the \"Fab Four\" and worked the Bluegrass and Ark winners into my Derby wager heavily. It didn\'t work out for me.

There was a contingent of negative number \"bounce\" advocates here that tossed them all. Some of them settled upon a McLaughlin colt that went off at about 70-1. Unfortunately for them another colt crashed the party at 50-1. A lamentable event. That 50-1 Derby winner ran hard when it counted and picked up the pieces. He\'s part of history now and they can never take that Derby away from him. That said, a number of things conspired to allow him to get up. The pace was hot. The rail was not and for various reasons the horses that did run big efforts coming in were hanging with an eighth to go. That Derby winner had the least amount of speed to win a Derby in my lifetime. The place horse was even less animal and was never competitive in another race.

So what did that Derby demonstrate? I think it demonstrated that tossing last race negative number horses is a viable technique. But it also indicated that you still have to be able to isolate a horse on fundamentals that has the tools to win the great calvary charge and that tossing all the fast horses leaves you with very little handicapping room, other than to wish and hope and box a bunch of horses with the chance of including the right ones.

With the Ark and Bluegrass still to go, there currently is only one Negative Number prep. (Later: Have not factored the Illinois Derby yet for speed)How fast one makes that prep will probably determine what one does with the horse.  When Bellamy Road ran as the Derby favorite, there was reduced value in accepting the Wood figure as repeatable. The same may be true of BJB to some extent. Though, it\'s possible BJB will not be favored and if he is, he could go off as a 4-1 or so favorite. Which is plenty juicy to score huge on the Derby, provided you hit the exotics. On the other hand, if you only have one Negative Number horse to toss, (BJB), you\'re chances of cashing are enhanced if the horse does \"Off\" and the rest of the competitive number horses are available to you on the basis of \"No Negative Last Race Number Exclusion\".

In conclusion, it appears to me that TGraph is laying it all on the line with this one. Sure, its sometimes easier and more mathematically probable to say that a specific horse will not win than to say that same horse will win. We use that technique all the time to toss a favorite for any various reason, including pure speculation and \"chaos theory\". The difference being that TGraph is tying the BRB bounce position upon their greatest \"tenets\". Which are that big efforts will cause bounces and big negative efforts by 3YO\'s are invariably fatal. I\'m not sure what TGraph will do should BJB win this thing by a pole. I guess they\'ll merely say \"He broke the mold\". It was statistically improbable even at 9-2. Maybe even \"It won\'t happen again.\"

I dont think eliminating horses with statistics, trends, schemes or theories is the best application of handicapping acumen, even granting that the eliminated horse does not win. To my mind each big race stands on its own and must be analyzed carefully without shortcuts.

I guess we\'ll see. I sure hope some of these fillies do in fact enter.

[miff]

\"That Derby winner had the least amount of speed to win a Derby in my lifetime\"


Chuck,

Go ahead, just say it, he was a slow rat. You\'ll feel better.

Mike

[ronwar]

I\'ll say it, and I\'m a west coast guy, He was a SLOW rat and it pained me to no end to see him cross the line first.  I still shake my head when I see a replay of it.

[Eight Belles]

Which are that big efforts will cause bounces and big negative efforts by 3YO\'s are invariably fatal. I\'m not sure what TGraph will do should BJB win this thing by a pole. I guess they\'ll merely say \"He broke the mold\".

Chuckles, nice post.  Here\'s my question: Would BB really break the mold?  I ask that sincerely as I don\'t know. You gave us four from one year, but how about others from other years?  

I\'ve noticed a lot of talk about Bellamy Road, but I\'ll say two things about him.  The first is that I didn\'t fall for the hype -- I thought it was a case of making way too much of a single race, a race which didn\'t impress me the way it did many others.  But second, and most important, he popped a splint in the race.  People talk as if he \"bounced\" without taking into account other factors.  A bounce by definition is a horse coming up short due to the physical exertion of its previous race -- not one who had another excuse.

So when listing all the horses who went into the Derby with negative numbers, we can\'t list them as if they exist in a vacuum.  Did they have other explanations for their losses?

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I\'ll give you one that broke the mold and I rode him to Derby and Preakness glory....(Smarty Jones)

I\'ll address this in more detail later...I\'m seriously considering a wager on the Bluegrass and I don\'t bet poly.

Eight Belles Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Which are that big efforts will cause bounces and
> big negative efforts by 3YO\'s are invariably
> fatal. I\'m not sure what TGraph will do should BJB
> win this thing by a pole. I guess they\'ll merely
> say \"He broke the mold\".
>
> Chuckles, nice post.  Here\'s my question: Would BB
> really break the mold?  I ask that sincerely as I
> don\'t know. You gave us four from one year, but
> how about others from other years?  
>
> I\'ve noticed a lot of talk about Bellamy Road, but
> I\'ll say two things about him.  The first is that
> I didn\'t fall for the hype -- I thought it was a
> case of making way too much of a single race, a
> race which didn\'t impress me the way it did many
> others.  But second, and most important, he popped
> a splint in the race.  People talk as if he
> \"bounced\" without taking into account other
> factors.  A bounce by definition is a horse coming
> up short due to the physical exertion of its
> previous race -- not one who had another excuse.
>
> So when listing all the horses who went into the
> Derby with negative numbers, we can\'t list them as
> if they exist in a vacuum.  Did they have other
> explanations for their losses?