Weekend Stakes -- Ragozin View

[Alydar in California]

Mall wrote \"Whether it\'s a simple thank you for digging up & rereading 2 yr old research\"

  Mall: I can\'t figure out what you mean here. Believe it or not, I am usually inordinately polite when politeness is in order. What did I fail to thank you for? There could be a gap in my memory. I lost more than my share of weekends--and weekdays--over the last year.

[nunzio]

I went down to the local racetrack,
To get my horse jones filled,
I was standin\' in line with Dr. Jerry,
The man he did cash a single bet,
So we decided that we would split a wager,
My favorite combo a four horse box....


How have you been Alydar ?

I\'m starting to get BC fever.  There doesn\'t seem to be a miler from the US that stick out in the mile turf race.  Looks like the Euro\'s will have an edge there.

Nunzio

[Mall]

You didn\'t forget because it wasn\'t you who asked for an explanation of the regulatory system which governs the use of medications in various states.

[dpatent]

Mall,

As to large numbers trumping anecdotal evidence I agree with you 137%.

But the bounce theory -- playing a horse to run \'X\' number of points or more off the last race -- has many possible scenarios under which we may say that it should play out, such as:

1) Horse just ran new top
2) Horse just ran new top at least \'X\' points greater than prior top
3) Horse of age \'X\' just ran either scenario 1 or 2
4) Horse just ran an absolute number greater than \'X\'
5) Horse with a particularly good(bad) previous pattern (of age \'X\') just ran a top under scenario 1 or 2 or ran an absolute number such as in scenario 4.

Then there are, of course, the trainer angles -- trainers whose horses supposedly don\'t bounce (Baffert, Lake, Dollase, etc.).

There are probably a dozen distinct scenarios with enough data points for us to draw conclusions about expected performance.  

The question we want answered for each scenario is what the expected performance of the horse is in the next race (or, similarly, what % of the time does a horse \'bounce\' \'X\' number of points) and how does the horse\'s performance shake out relative to the horse\'s odds.

If I had been as rigorous over time in studying the actual performance of horses versus my prediction as I am in my day-to-day work I would have a better fact base upon which to pontificate, but I don\'t. And, since you would be a fool to reveal the eleven herbs and spices you use in your secret recipe I guess the string ends here.  Chop.

[Mall]

Reading your post alerted me to the possibility that some might be left with the incorrect impression that I am the one who did the research in question. I wish that were so, but it isn\'t.

Your earlier post refers to what the \"crowd\" would do in a particular situation. What were you referring to?

[Alydar in California]

Nunzio: I am doing very well, thank you. How are you? Great job with the song. I was afraid I would have to dip into my stash of Italian ditties to get you back here. The 1989 Stones-Guns N\'Roses concert at the LA Coliseum was one of the highlights of the last century. Did you ask JB about his favorite flavor? If it\'s still cherry red, he has some explaining to do.

[nunzio]

Alydar,

Its been way to hectic around here, lots of distractions.... but when BC rolls around I need to get more in tune.  I\'ll let you know who I like when the big day gets closer.

Thanks,
Nunzio

[dpatent1]

Mall,

By \'crowd\' I meant the betting public.

[Alydar in California]

David wrote: \"By \'crowd\' I meant the betting public.\"

Mall: Are you going to let David get away with this?