BC Mile-Deja Vu All over Again

[Silver Charm]

Can almost see a debacle of Lone Star Park occuring again here in this race. Artie Schiller burned a ton of money as the designer NOW HORSE coming in off a big win in the Jamaica. Can almost see the same thing happening with Nobiz who also popped a big one in the Jamaica and has never been hurting for a big following at the windows.

Not going to happen with my money. Have never been a big fan of this horse even though there is a lot of physical talent. Mentally that is the question. He has never faced Older Horses, seems to make a lot of mental mistakes. As I said a while back this is this years version of Eddington. Who showed some real talent as four year old.

Nobiz may win the BC Mile, but he will do it just like Artie Schiller did.

The year AFTER he burned big money...........

[xichibanx]

Didn\'t Peace Rules take huge amounts of money also as a now horse in the mile?  

I have no clue which way I am truly going to and I won\'t know for sure until Friday/Saturday.  But on cursory glance I can see no less than eight horses that can win this.  There is no point in following the steam in here.

[Silver Charm]

xichibanx wrote,

\"I can see no less than eight horses that can win this. There is no point in following the steam in here.\"

Xichibanx YOU ARE THE STEAM!!!

[richiebee]

This year\'s Mile a great wide open race and of course post position will be
crucial.

Historical Note: The Breeders Cup Mile has been run 23 times, and has been won
by 7 3YOs: Last Tycoon, Miesque, Royal Academy, Lure, Ridgewood Pearl, War Chant
and Six Perfections. 5 Euros and 2 Yanks.

I would say that the biggest factor working in Nobiz\'s favor right now is that
his trainer, Barclay Tagg, is on an unbelievable roll. According to DRF he has
won Graded stakes at a 37% clip, and his TG fig based last 90 day stat is quite
impressive.

The largest Nobiz negative is that he has been favored in all 3 of his turf
races (all against straight 3YOs) indicating a lack of turf tested competition.
He takes a huge step up in class Saturday.

Tagg had originally said he wanted to skip the BC and run in the Hollywood
Derby, leading me to believe that owner Elizabeth Valando made the decision to
throw her colt into this very deep water. (Ms Valando\'s late husband Thomas was
the owner of Fly So Free, who ran 9th in the 1993 Sprint).

[Silver Charm]

>I would say that the biggest factor working in Nobiz\'s favor right now is that
his trainer, Barclay Tagg.

Ritchie that is the case with any horse Tagg trains.

Look if Nobiz if 12-1 or 15-1 toss him in. The last race was professional and fast enough to compete. However the Artie Schiller debacle I mentioned was Artie opened at 5-2 that year at Lone Star and barely drifted to 7-2.

He beat 2 horses.

The competition and possibly softer turf and who knows whatever else killed him and a helluva lot of tickets.

[Silver Charm]

I live by it I die by it.

Looking elsewhere.

[stillinger]

Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> I live by it I die by it.
>
> Looking elsewhere.

I think it\'s significant to consider how racetracks like MTH or other Eastern tracks, handle the 3rd and or 4th day or water. Softer. Young horses can lead, leading is easier at the outset, but the undertone is soft as perfectly illustrated by Midnight Lute. So far that is a wet version of how Smile, Precisionist, etc., looked. Which is farther back than those horses in the Sprint you mentioned. Wet Stamina is more important at this point than wet or wet speed. Not a Carson City offspring wet, and not back to a Broad Brush offspring but between that. Distorted Humor Long kind. AGS is a spot I think. If Funny Cide can win the Derby, an AP Indy mom could get you through this, and the track is exactly his way front to back, mo.

[Michael D.]

nobiz ran ok, but good call. he was a bit short.

hope Jim nailed Kip well.


well, I\'m passing on the turf, then changing to Lawyer Ron for the big one. it\'s been fun. good luck all ........

[Silver Charm]

This was one of those horses in a race where if he wins and pays what $10.00 you say you can have him to anyone who bet him. Who your betting on and what your getting for betting on them have to make some sense. This one did not. You could smell it coming a week away. He actually opened at 5-2, the same as Artie Schiller.

TG nailed this one with Kip Deville as their selection. Kip broke from the eight hole while NoBiz broke from the nine. The trips were as different as night and day. Kip had run as fast or faster than NoBiz on turf twice. Yet Kip went off at twice the price. 8-1 vs 4-1.

Hot Steam can Burn...........

[spa]

Charm, TG missed this race...............

[Silver Charm]

Spa,

Here is the only part of the analysis that matters for you.

BOTTOM LINE---We are willing to go against After Market and Excellent
Art here, especially after the latter, who comes from out of it, drew wide.
Kip Deville is the most likely winner of the race.

You sound like a Player who was burned by the Hot Steam.

[belmont3]

Spa,

\"the most likely to win\" Kip Deville

How is this not hitting it on the button?

This horse keyed my pick3, pick 4. Hit the win button as well.
Plus the exacta.....u don\'t always to have take the analysis verbatim