Rocky Graziano and the BC Sprint

[richiebee]

Back when NYC OTB had an advertising budget and a TV presence, OTB ran an ad
which featured boxing champ Rocky Graziano. An off camera voice asked the champ
something like \"How do you pick a winner champ?\" Graziano replied by pounding
his forehead with the heel of his hand and saying \"Sometimes it just hits me!\"

(I guess if you watch the NTRA \"Who do YOU like today?\" commercials you can see
how much Racing advertising has evolved in the last 30 years--not at all).

But I had a Graziano moment while handicapping the Sprint this afternoon. There
are 5 runners in the Sprint that sport perfect 1/1 records at Monmouth. They
are: Attila\'s Storm (won allowance race in 2005); Idiot Proof (won Gr 3 stake
 TG negative 4);La Traviata (won Post Deb Stake TG negative 1); Smokey Stover
(Icecapade Stake at odds of 1/10, TG negative 3); and Talent Search (Teddy Drone
stake, TG negative 3).

Of those 5, I will exclude Attila, who is 1/8 in 06-07.

Talent Search is the least accomplished of the remaining 4 and will offer the
best value. TS comes into the race with 5 consecutive negative #s. He has been
second to Fabulous Strike twice (distant seconds at that) and second to
Diabolical. Talent Search, who has done his best running on the lead will
probably need to rate just a bit and I am not sure that strategy is attainable.

Others: Bardonaro (beaten recently by Gregs Gold, In Summation and Idiot Proof,
off board 3 of last 4 starts); Commentator (only 1 lifetime race at 6 furlongs);
In Summation (only 2 negative efforts on synthetic, best TG lifetime on fast
dirt = 4); and Park Avenue Ball (0/4 lifetime at 6f).

Greg\'s Gold is an honest and talented runner but has never competed outside of
California and I have always tried to beat these horses venturing out of
California for the first time. Kelly\'s Landing on the other hand has been
victorious on many different surfaces, and should have a garden spot behind
speed and stalkers (which will be most of the field) and in front of Benny the
Bull.

Benny will get a favorable pace to run in to, but will probably have to pass the
entire field (including some staggering pace refugees) to strike the front.
Lots of respect for Dutrow in sprints but this one may get going too late. A
reluctant toss for me.

Lets see, who am I missing. Oh right Midnight Lute. Watched his Forego replay.
He had a perfect pace and positional set up, outside of 2 horses who dueled
each other to dust. Trying to beat this short priced favorite one must hope that
his planets were aligned at Saratoga and that he is not able to repeat his
monster effort on Saturday. He is one of the least seasoned runners in the
field, and his efforts other than the Forego make him no faster than the rest
of these.

Sprint Facts courtesy NTRA: In 23 Sprint runnings, the race has been won by 6
3YOs including 3YO filly Very Subtle. 3YOs have won 3 times since 01.

Between 1984- 1993, only 1 favorite, Eillo, was victorious. Between 1994- 2006,
favorites or co- favorites prevailed 6 times.

Enough Already. On my ticket-- the 4 members of the Monmouth Class of 07--
Idiot Proof, La Traviata, Smokey Stover and Talent Search plus Kelly\'s Landing.

[Rick B.]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> On my ticket-- the 4 members of the Monmouth Class of
> 07-- Idiot Proof, La Traviata, Smokey Stover and Talent
> Search plus Kelly\'s Landing.

Part of why I find it so hard to make BC betting decisions this far in advance -- the connections are still deciding where to run!

See DRF story \"La Traviata will stick to F&M Sprint\" at:

http://www.drf.com/news/article/89665.html

[richiebee]

Rick:

Thanks for the update. Looks like Clement pulled In Summation who was much
slower than these on dirt.

La Traviata\'s presence in the F/M Sprint makes the F/M Sprint/ Sprint overnight
double much more interesting.

Quite obviously best to wait for final decisions, track conditions and post
positions, but its hard to \"rate\" when you have so much information so far in
advance.

[Rick B.]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Quite obviously best to wait for final decisions,
> track conditions and post positions, but its hard to
> \"rate\" when you have so much information so far in advance.

I know. I tried to make my note as respectful as possible.

I\'m ass-deep in TG sheets right now, trying to absorb as much as possible. I honestly don\'t know how Jerry & Co. can sort through all of this, write meaningful analysis, meet production deadlines, etc. Unless they have thousands and thousands of subscribers, they\'re not doing it for the money -- this much work has to be a labor of love.

[Silver Charm]

\"they\'re not doing it for the money -- this much work has to be a labor of love.\"

The Sheets your ASS-deep in cost $35 bucks and the analysis your going to need on top of it, IF YOU WANT TO WIN, will cost $15. You\'ve lost your mind if you think it isn\'t for the money and a whole lot of \"I told ya so\" when the selections work.

Don\'t over think this race.

Smokey Stover is solid. Ignore the Calder race. Not because of the track conditions that day but the weather conditions earlier in the day. It was a two week stretch of total hell in So. Fla. Nothing but brutal daytime rains with severe and I\'m mean severe thunder and lightening. So much so that this writer actually got lost driving to the track, a drive he knows like the back of his hand.

There were a couple of shippers who ran well that day but the fact that Smokey Stover did not can be excused.

Smokey Stover is the key.

[Bally Ache]

Since we\'re doing this without PP\'s, which is beyond rash, I\'ll say La Traviata will win wherever she runs.  Nobody will beat her out of the gate and she won\'t come back to them.

Remember Very Subtle ($35)?  Same situation.  If the fastest horse out of the gate can run a 24 flat final quarter, how they gonna catch her?

[RICH]

Richie

I agree partly, I am using Talent Search as an A bet, with smokey and benny as B\'s. I think Talent search has a huge shot at this. He was beat by a monster last out. He can wire this field, assuming a decent inside post.