Bel P4 (incl ROTW) and a Comment

[richiebee]

Bel Pick 4:

7th Race Dynamic Lisa NYB Stakes: Nothing shocking here for me. REWRITE is 2/2
on Widener at a mile and 4/6 LT on firm courses. One 3f breeze reported since
her last race 7/27 at Spa. FACTUAL CONTENDER is a Team Tagg two turn speed horse
cutting back to a one turn mile (the same sort of turnback worked out well for
Dance Away Capote); Tagg\'s last 90 day TG Fig based stat very impressive as is
the fact that DRF has Tagg winning stakes at a 25%+ rate in a sample larger
than 100 races. Clement/Tagg/ Gomez/Coa not much price here obviously.

8th Race Flower Bowl: Not favored by distance: Masseuse, My Typhoon. Alexander
Tango has run races close together in Europe but steps up in class here. That
leaves ROSINKA, who could be aided by complacent rides by others,and ROYAL
HIGHNESS,beaten a neck by Rosinka at Delaware under equal weight (Rosinka gets
4 lbs today).

A word about Wait a While. What to make of WAW, fastest in the race and coming
off a career best in the Ballston Spa at Saratoga? My unscientific observation,
based as it is on 2 races at each venue, is that she may be more effective
upstate than in Elmont. If you like her, take solace in the fact that Tagg\'s
Dance Away Capote was 5th in the Ballston Spa and came back to win the Noble
Damsel at Belmont in eye catching fashion.

9th Race Kelso ROTW: In the 1970s,long before TGs, it was always considered
good sport to beat the highweighted,favored West Coast invader. No change here.
Many seem capable of hanging up a number in the 2-3 range, many of these seem
like they will be in a tight pack near the front. To me that leaves the door
open for a late run from ICY ATLANTIC (equaled 1 mile course record at Monmouth
in the Red Bank) (TG questions the running time) (he wasn\'t beating much in the
Red Bank)(no value TAP/Johnny V) (Did I close all the parenthesis?).

Strike A Deal and English Colony both have plenty of upside, but today might
not be the day and I don\'t think either of their riders will be able to do the
assigned weight. And I would have liked the SCRATCHED Art Master despite TG\'s
strong \"sell\" recommendation.

Others: Trippi\'s Storm also could be closing with bottom but Hough is 1/20 in
graded stakes according to DRF. Kavafi has seemingly done best work on softer
ground.

10th Race: Thanx NYRA for ending the sequence with a NYB turf sprint, just so we
dont forget what NY racing is really all about these days. I\'ll try BENEATH THE
CROWN off 2 very tough Spa trips and ELUSIVE FOX, who comes out of a fast turf
sprint in NJ and goes for the weight off with JV Bridgmohan.

By the #s: 6,8/6,7,8/8/2,8 $2 = $24. The small size of the ticket reflects the
fact that these are contentious races. I might make an additional \"Pletcher
sandwich\" ticket for $1 where I single Wait a While and Icy Atlantic and spread
wildly in races 7 and 10. Maybe the much maligned TAP is \"rounding back to
form\".

COMMENT: For NCT and others, to disregard performance enhancing methods and the
impact of synthetic surfaces on Racing is to bury one\'s head in the sand. The
challenge is to discuss these issues with less rhetoric, rumor and innuendo and
more utilization of what I have called the scientific method. It is a bad thing
to post something like \"Trainer Gasper \'the Gun\' Ferrimosbarrera is juicing his
horses\", but the same post, with empirical data such as TG patterns showing
horses which have been clearly moved up or documenting publicly recorded
suspensions, is more acceptable.

[Michael D.]

how hard is that Bel turf?

did it rain down there yesterday?

[richiebee]

Michael:

Showers were forecast for the area but many places saw only a trace of
precipitation.

Yesterday\'s 8th race, a 50K Optional Claimer for NYBs yielded the following
fractions for 7/8ths on Widener:

22.85/45.73/1:09.32/1:20.96.

[Michael D.]

thanks richie .....

I like Symphony of Psalms in the 7th. unusual sheet for a 6 yr old. developing pattern last year, and a new top first out this year. last wasn\'t bad, considering the \'tu\', short rest, and maybe an 1/8 longer than she wanted. a \'5\' or so puts her right there at the weights.

think I\'m going with Wait A While over the hard turf in the 8th. she was a pretty solid \'3\' filly last year at the distance. I don\'t see a return to the \'0\' lvl, and a bounce is the obvious risk, but I think she can finish the year with a few runs in the \'2\' range.

good luck .....

[richiebee]

Michael:

Added note--just watched the 2YO grass stake--plenty of dust being kicked up.

[stillinger]

richiebee Wrote:

> A word about Wait a While. What to make of WAW,
> fastest in the race and coming
> off a career best in the Ballston Spa at Saratoga?
> My unscientific observation,
> based as it is on 2 races at each venue, is that
> she may be more effective
> upstate than in Elmont. If you like her, take
> solace in the fact that Tagg\'s
> Dance Away Capote was 5th in the Ballston Spa and
> came back to win the Noble
> Damsel at Belmont in eye catching fashion.

This saved me on the otherwise very sentimental favorite,
but when you said this, her body around a turn at Sarotga in
my mind - - I knew shape of move was what she needs. OU