Belmont 3rd 09/15 analysis

[firmturf]

On Saturday\'s 3rd race I made a play on number 5 Richland Creek at 9/1 odds. After looking at the \"analysis\" I see that Thorograph also thought the favorites were vulnerable but went three deep and still never mentioned my play. (ouch)

Was I wrong to assume that Richland Creek would have physically matured and gotten faster from January of his 3yo year to September? Smart Strike\'s seem to move forward with age? ( I used the Sire Profile and saw 16.2 for 3yo then 11.2 for three, etc.) Was I overlooking that the horrible trip at Oaklawn then the layoff was a sign he would never get back to those races let alone improve?

Just curious what other players thought of this horse who was training well, equipment change and in capable hands.

I might also note it didn\'t matter after the opening quarter and half in 23 and 46.

Thanks in advance for your thoughts!

[TGJB]

The time off wasn\'t a vacation in the Bahamas, and even if he\'s okay now, and even if he\'s capable of a better top, it\'s no sure thing he\'ll run it off a layoff. He maybe could be used at a big price, and his not running doesn\'t make you wrong-- it\'s a game of percentages.