Saturday Belmont pik 6 (or 4)

[shanahan]

race 5) 7,1 - the one is in very light, 7 poised.
race 6) 3,2,5 - I like Proud Spell in this one. Jones ships well and with intention.  My figs have him just as fast, if not faster the Song...but Song is the type that improves.
race 7)  10,4 - like Pommes, but as Alan like to point out - 4 YO layoff guy is #4.
Race  6,3,4 - may single the 6, Kodiak Kowboy.
Race 9)  6,1 - Rags another singleton, but put the 1 in the pik 4...
Race 10) 7,6,4 - 6 is 3rd back off layoff, pretty close.

$2 pik 6 costs between $72 - $432
$1 pik 4 using all = $36

good luck - was beautiful when I left NY Friday afternoon...

[Michael D.]

shanahan Wrote:
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> race 5) 7,1 - the one is in very light, 7 poised.
> race 6) 3,2,5 - I like Proud Spell in this one.
> Jones ships well and with intention.  My figs have
> him just as fast, if not faster the Song...but
> Song is the type that improves.
> race 7)  10,4 - like Pommes, but as Alan like to
> point out - 4 YO layoff guy is #4.
> Race  6,3,4 - may single the 6, Kodiak Kowboy.
> Race 9)  6,1 - Rags another singleton, but put the
> 1 in the pik 4...
> Race 10) 7,6,4 - 6 is 3rd back off layoff, pretty
> close.
>
> $2 pik 6 costs between $72 - $432
> $1 pik 4 using all = $36
>
> good luck - was beautiful when I left NY Friday
> afternoon...


7th - I originally put a \'6\' next to Bayou, but I\'ll have to revisit that one. she has the \'5\' going 7 1/2f, and might have faster running to do going 1m over the firm turf with Gomez up.  

Sky High Flyer could be a play. looks like a \'5.5\' type; not eligible for the big move. comes in with perfect timing though, and gets some pace to run at. gets Bejarano. a \'4.5\' at the weights could get the job done at decent odds. I think she\'s my key.

[shanahan]

Michael D - you are right, I should have sky high flyer in here somewhere.  thanks for correcting me on the oversight.

[Michael D.]

shanahan Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Michael D - you are right, I should have sky high
> flyer in here somewhere.  thanks for correcting me
> on the oversight.


well, it\'s going to require some odds. she is a bit slow going in, and I\'m looking for a forward move out of a five yr old, so there is risk here.

I believe pace is going to make this race.

[flushedstraight]

Rahys\' Appeal looks to me like the wagering key to the 7th. She\'s got the 2nd best turf fig at a 1M and over; big m/l odds coming off the nyb loss at the Spa (from the dreaded 9 post at a mile); she\'s been chasing some arguably classier ones all year shipping back and forth and here and there; this field look pretty well matched and saving ground could be the key so the rail could be a big plus, the competent Luzzi knows that and he\'s gotta be itching badly with his 0 for 27 start - he\'ll hug the rail and pray for room as they come off the turn; not the ideal scenario but given her figs and the projected price I\'m taking that risk. good luck.

[shanahan]

Luzzi is the only reason I left this one off the ticket...

[Michael D.]

flushedstraight Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Rahys\' Appeal looks to me like the wagering key to
> the 7th. She\'s got the 2nd best turf fig at a 1M
> and over; big m/l odds coming off the nyb loss at
> the Spa (from the dreaded 9 post at a mile); she\'s
> been chasing some arguably classier ones all year
> shipping back and forth and here and there; this
> field look pretty well matched and saving ground
> could be the key so the rail could be a big plus,
> the competent Luzzi knows that and he\'s gotta be
> itching badly with his 0 for 27 start - he\'ll hug
> the rail and pray for room as they come off the
> turn; not the ideal scenario but given her figs
> and the projected price I\'m taking that risk. good
> luck.


RA is a tough call for me. I can\'t find any excuse last, can she top that \'5\' today? has the huge one turn 1M figure from last year, but that was on dirt. the trainer apparently has one decent hit with the first blinkers angle (1 for 9, $3.62 ROI). I can see the play, as even the \'5\' with a rail trip puts her close. good luck.

[girly]

I got the tri in Bel. race 8 cold 362. I know it\'s not much but I\'m just as pleased as if I won big, because I guessed it myself. And I have my losses covered. Thank you shahanon for talking about the races and providing your impressions. I like to think I\'m learning from you all-