Friday's 8th at Saratoga

[jimbo66]

Let\'s try and see if we can actually get a little handicapping talk on the board.  I am looking to build the bankroll in the 8th at Saratoga on Friday, so as to be able to unload on Sunday\'s Haskell winner (Any Given Saturday).

I hope the morning line is right, but with the job they did over last weekend (screwing up several races), one can\'t be sure.  

However, they have the best horse in the race as the 3rd choice at 5-2.  

I will start with Grecian Lover.  The horse\'s top of \"1\" a year ago, would make him a contender with the rail and a decent trip, but this year the horse has not been close to being in form.  The last three figures are not competitive and the horse is moving in the wrong direction.  Pass.

I am hoping the undefeated horse, Burmilla, takes some action.  Debuts as a 3 year old, races once, then is off 5 months.  Races once, then is off a year, albeit does pair up the \"4\" in that race, despite an \"off poorly\".  I guess one could take it as a positive sign that the horse will actually make two starts in a row instead of another layoff line, but the fillie obviously has physical problems.  As often stated on this board, horses with physical problems usually run their best race off the layoff.  I don\'t expect this one to move forward and she might move backward.  She might a rail trip if she breaks clean, but I still can\'t use her.

G City Gal is Pletcher and Velasquez and as such will probably take money.  She got down to paired up \"1\'s\" last year, which is fast for a 3 year old fillie.  However, she hasn\'t gotten back to that level in her first two starts as a 4 year old. Generally, that is not a great sign, although she did improve a bit in her second start.  Pletcher\'s usually don\'t seem to improve much during a campaign though, as he is a \"layoff\" trainer, so at short odds, I won\'t play this one to move forward.

Indian Flare got down a \"1\" in a race two back, then bounced badly on a calder track many horses seemed to struggle with.  Last time she got down to the \"1\", she managed to pair up, but she bore out badly in the race and then went off form afterwards, so one could argue the \"1\" took something out of her.  She is a year older and stronger, so she could get back to the \"1\" today, but I don\'t see a new top.  With an outside post and several speeds inside her, she is not likely to save ground.  As the favorite, I would call her an underlay and try to beat her.

Miss MAcy Sue has run four straight races, at different tracks, that likely would win here.  The trainer has done a nice job of spacing her races, each almost exactly a month apart, and the filly has responded with consistent, winning efforts.  With another month off, I think you can pencil in a \"pair up\".  She is inside of Indian Flare and has a little tactical speed.  The rider change to Prado can\'t hurt and I make her the most likely winner by quite a bit.  Don\'t know if you get the 5-2, but with Pletcher and Frankel both in the race, you might.  

Miss Macy Sue to win, then parlay the winnings on Sunday in the Haskell!!

[gohorse10]

I\'m not going by numbers but Cable Boy is a very Talented horse. He has to step up to the next level but they will have to run him down to win the race even with Hard Spun in the race.

[miff]

Jim,


Have not spoken to anyone who is not on Miss Macy Sue, she could go favorite. I think you could get some argument about who is the best horse in the Haskell.   If Monmouth is playing \"speed highway\", remember both AGS and Curlin are kinda grinders and Lawyer Ron(new phenom of racing!) lost to a very inferior horse that shook loose on that surface.Good Luck!


Mike

[toppled]

I\'m looking to get some value using Miss Macy Sue in late DDs with Gilded Thread on turf, Moneypenny on dirt.  Gilded Thread should throw another 13 & change, which is competitive with these-not fastest going in, but right there. Should go off at a nice price. Although 1/14 her win was 2 races back & then she was outclassed and still ran a new top pressing the pace against better.  On dirt, Moneypenny\'s three straight 8s tower over the others here. She paired on 15 days rest last, so I\'m not expecting a big, if any, bounce.  I\'ll save with Moneypenny on turf where she has a 13 last year here. I might also throw a saver in with Fort Carillon, who is fastest on turf but compromised by the 12 pp.  Turf Muffin has competitive #s but is 1/22 with 6 2nds & hasn\'t won in years-only use underneath-no DD.  While the 2 inside 3yos have some decent #s, I don\'t think they match up well against older-especially Litfin\'s best-#1, who last ran in a race restricted to 3yos.  

Now, there is one problem-thunderstorms are supposed to come in right around post time for the 8 or 9th races.  There\'s a possibility that if it\'s bad enough & most wagers are in, the 9th could get cancelled if the race can\'t be run on turf.

[fkach]

Unfortunately, it looks to me like there\'s more value on G City Gal than Miss Macy Sue based on the opening prices (4-1 and 4-5).  Personally, I don\'t see much not to like about GCG. She looks set to match or exceed her top 3rd off a layoff. Her last at CRC was in a very deep and talented field and she performed quite well. At these prices I\'d also be more apt to throw out Indian Flare\'s last race (bumped) and hope she can bounce back with another good effort at 7-2. Miss Macy Sue fits very well here, but I don\'t want any part of 4-5 or 1-1 when there are at least 2 other horses of similar ability from top barns and another lightly raced horse.

[Wrongly]

Nice pick with Gilded Thread!