Numbers....An Endless Debate

[streetbull]

\"Just so we\'re clear-- my giving RTR the right figure does NOT mean a) I think she will necessarily beat colts in the future, or b) repeat that figure. That is a very big figure for a June 3yo filly, and it will probably take something out of her. I may very well be betting it will.\"

I don\'t have a problem with the Belmont figure, but I do have a problem with this debates. No one ever wins.

If she runs back to the fast figure in a few months, you will say that it verifies the Belmont. Chuckles will say she was a lightly raced June 3YO filly that developed some more, ran faster at the shorter distance or that you scored the new figure wrong because you used the old one.

If she runs slower, you will say she bounced and Chuckles will say \"I told ya so\".

I think the only solution is to have the debate, form an opinion for yourself, and bet accordingly. When I am not sure, I am always very cautious.

Post by Fkach
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Just wanted to chime in on this endless debate......

I think that no matter how accurate your numbers/figures are made to be...There will always be other interpretations of them.....I think that someone said that you can put a special chip on each horse's bridle and have the most accurate and the most advance wind gauges in the world, we would still be embroil in some endless debate about how high or how much lower some races should or shouldn\'t't be....

There many other factors in form cycles or whether a horse actually pair up and ran his full potential (top-major effort) or whether a horse actually regress yet still managed to win the race.  For example, Silver Charm at the end of his racing career before he was sent to stud...His energy distribution started declining in his last several races.....or an extreme early energy runner like Ruhlmann...This type of runner basically has only a major top and one more effort after his pair up races...But when you analyze Ruhlmann after his two major races, one would bet the farm on Ruhlmann only to scratch one's head afterwards and probably blame the numbers as wrong or something else...This type of energy horse (extreme early) has the most energy expenditures in horse racing but his racing potentials are brief.  

Sometimes a horse is given a high number because he finished in a fast time but this type of horse just loped along during the real running of a race while the front runners ding dong with each other dueling through suicidal fractions while this type of energy horse runs his own race at the back of the pack  and earns a fast time because the horses on the front end of the race collapsed.  I think that many years ago, someone at a Thorograph mentioned at a seminar or through a taped seminar that he a told trainer Gary Jones that his horse Good Taste was a Grade 1 caliber horse.  Jones had thought that the people at Thorograph were crazy.  Jones just thought he had only a high priced claimer runner but Good Taste in the San Bernardino against Ferdinand and Alysheba ran a credible close up third to the two Derby winners.   Some would say that all the facts were true about Good Taste being a Grade 1 caliber horse or those who point out that Good Taste carried only 114 lbs to Ferdinand and Alysheba's 126 lbs and that Ferdinand and Alysheba dueled each other for 3/4 of the race in a great great race after they had already battled each other in the Santa Anita Big Cap that year.  Good Taste in the San Bernardino just minded his own business during the race while the two champion colts dueled in the front end.

Finally, I wanted to bring back memories of Cigar and his famous 16 race win streak which came to an end in the 1996 Pacific Classic at Del Mar.  Cigar was a sustained runner who was always positional early.....On paper, Cigar probably had dominating numbers since they were consistent throughout his 16 race win streak.  Most of your championed runners are this kind of energy distribution horses like Bayakoa, Paseana, Azeri, etc.... Unlike Ruhlmann, this type of energy horse never empties the tank so to speak.. Thus they can have a longer campaign without squeezing the lemon dry.  Throughout Cigar's win streak, he was never seriously challenged on the front end of the pace until......It was until the Pacific Classic when trainer Richard Mandella enter two entry mates in Siphon and Dared and Go to attack Cigar.   Dared and Go was a huge longshot in the race going off at 30-1 while Siphon was a legitimate Grade 1 winner at the distance of the Pacific Classic.  Jerry Bailey knew that he couldn\'t't let Siphon get away with soft fractions on the front end so he committed to keep close to Siphon during the race.  Siphon forced Cigar to expend valuable energy early thru fast fractions of 109 and change softening up Cigar while Dared and Go lay back and used his sustained kick to win the race in an overpowering upset.  That point of all these ramblings is that you can have the most accurate numbers before a race is run but there are other factors can determine the final time or the outcome of the race.    Anyways just my two cents...  Good Luck to all........