Belmont Post Mortem-- Various Topics, Somewhat Relevant

[richiebee]

The Belmont Stakes day number I was most anxious to see was Belmont attendance,
which was 46,870. Sad, but not surprising. Sad because so few people got to see
history being made. Not surprising because a bankrupt NYRA has no fiscal
resources to promote its big event. Even when NYRA had the resources,their
advertising was embarassing and very gimmicky, not meant to capitalize on the
beauty of two of its facilities and the beauty and power of the equine
performers.

The Race Itself: Two game performances by the top 2. Do not know what the TGs
will say, but hard to call Curlin\'s game effort a bounce under any
circumstances. And I agree with those who second guess Garrett Gomez\'s decision
not to place Hard Spun on the lead. IMO this was the only scenario by which HS
could have taken this race--out on the lead with soft fractions, with some
overly complacent riders in his wake.

Good job by ABC or TVG (new home of racing from Yonkers)showing how Velazquez
bore in slightly with the winner, brushing Curlin ever so slightly. JV\'s agent
should be quite proud.

The \"Jinxes\": Some longstanding jinxes will not be available in handicapping
next years Triple Crown series. The BC Juvie/Derby jinx is gone. Pletcher is
off the schneid. Better Than Honour has become the first broodmare to produce
siblings to win Triple Crown races (honorable mention to the dam of Giacomo/
Tiago).

And what of the importance of a 2YO foundation as a factor in determining an
animal\'s readiness for the rigors of a Triple Crown campaign? Street Sense
had that extensive 2YO campaign, but neither Curlin or Rags did. Maybe the 2YO
foundation is a Derby factor which should really not be considered as strongly
for the Preakness or Belmont.

Ground Loss: fascinating discussion of ground loss leading up to the Belmont (a
race, by the way, where the winner saved absolutely no ground). Two factors
were mentioned in the course of this discussion A) animals who stick to the
rail run a shorter distance than wider running animals and B) how to take into
account the fact that the rail path might sometimes be deeper and slower than
outside paths. A) is a matter of science, a piece of pi,so to speak; B)is more
subjective and more difficult to calculate. A) will be true every racing day,
while B) will change from day to day and even within the course of a day.

Personal Belmont Day Wagers: I singled RTR on a 5/3/4/1 Pick 4 ticket which did
not include Dream Rush, who I thought was more of a bounce candidate than
Curlin. Unfortunately the first 2 animals I tossed out of the P4 sequence were
Teuflesberg (I was insulted that they would allow a trainer who saddled 2
winners out of 125 starters in a race named for NY\'s best loved and maybe best
overall trainer) and Better Talk Now (thought at this age he was no longer
competitive at this level).

Two notes for CTC: (1) As the absolute pedigree maven on this site, you should
have been all over the Belmont winner and (2) Reviewing some of your posts,it
seems like when Pletcher wins, its drugs and when he loses, its drugs. TAP and
his owners should be commended for recognizing that this race was theirs for
the taking due to the short field and the vulnerability of the top contenders.

Final Note: given the strange economics of the business/sport of racing, RTR
may (hopefully) still be racing long after Hard Spun, Street Sense and Curlin
are retired.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I liked the filly\'s pedigree vs fillies. I also liked the fact her Sire won on the Sandy. The 1st, 3rd and 4th horses were Big Sandy sire considered. But other than growing disrespect for Pletcher and a little pain because he took the toughest race. I came out of the Belmont well and will fire my A race in the next big one.

If Rags is all that good she\'ll take the boys on again and thats when we\'ll get her. Ambush has been an effective angle the past few years. For those that played it congrats. I am pleased she was so hooked up in the exotics you didn\'t make any money. Rags caught the boys very flat and am now factoring that race slow with multiple off efforts. Including the place horse. Obviously Pletcher cheats, for this race he didn\'t need to cheat much.

Beside\'s I\'ll say it again. There is value in beating Pletcher and non analytical lady money. You saw what that race paid. Not much blood there. This time they got me but I did have their number for two races and did better in the Derby than Pletcher did today in the Belmont. Regardless, We\'ll meet again, though I may not try to beat that filly vs other fillies. She\'ll be very strong in the 10 pole events. She may have some problems with the Distaff at Monmouth. I may try her there.



richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> The Belmont Stakes day number I was most anxious
> to see was Belmont attendance,
> which was 46,870. Sad, but not surprising. Sad
> because so few people got to see
> history being made. Not surprising because a
> bankrupt NYRA has no fiscal
> resources to promote its big event. Even when NYRA
> had the resources,their
> advertising was embarassing and very gimmicky, not
> meant to capitalize on the
> beauty of two of its facilities and the beauty and
> power of the equine
> performers.
>
> The Race Itself: Two game performances by the top
> 2. Do not know what the TGs
> will say, but hard to call Curlin\'s game effort a
> bounce under any
> circumstances. And I agree with those who second
> guess Garrett Gomez\'s decision
> not to place Hard Spun on the lead. IMO this was
> the only scenario by which HS
> could have taken this race--out on the lead with
> soft fractions, with some
> overly complacent riders in his wake.
>
> Good job by ABC or TVG (new home of racing from
> Yonkers)showing how Velazquez
> bore in slightly with the winner, brushing Curlin
> ever so slightly. JV\'s agent
> should be quite proud.
>
> The \"Jinxes\": Some longstanding jinxes will not be
> available in handicapping
> next years Triple Crown series. The BC Juvie/Derby
> jinx is gone. Pletcher is
> off the schneid. Better Than Honour has become the
> first broodmare to produce
> siblings to win Triple Crown races (honorable
> mention to the dam of Giacomo/
> Tiago).
>
> And what of the importance of a 2YO foundation as
> a factor in determining an
> animal\'s readiness for the rigors of a Triple
> Crown campaign? Street Sense
> had that extensive 2YO campaign, but neither
> Curlin or Rags did. Maybe the 2YO
> foundation is a Derby factor which should really
> not be considered as strongly
> for the Preakness or Belmont.
>
> Ground Loss: fascinating discussion of ground loss
> leading up to the Belmont (a
> race, by the way, where the winner saved
> absolutely no ground). Two factors
> were mentioned in the course of this discussion A)
> animals who stick to the
> rail run a shorter distance than wider running
> animals and B) how to take into
> account the fact that the rail path might
> sometimes be deeper and slower than
> outside paths. A) is a matter of science, a piece
> of pi,so to speak; B)is more
> subjective and more difficult to calculate. A)
> will be true every racing day,
> while B) will change from day to day and even
> within the course of a day.
>
> Personal Belmont Day Wagers: I singled RTR on a
> 5/3/4/1 Pick 4 ticket which did
> not include Dream Rush, who I thought was more of
> a bounce candidate than
> Curlin. Unfortunately the first 2 animals I tossed
> out of the P4 sequence were
> Teuflesberg (I was insulted that they would allow
> a trainer who saddled 2
> winners out of 125 starters in a race named for
> NY\'s best loved and maybe best
> overall trainer) and Better Talk Now (thought at
> this age he was no longer
> competitive at this level).
>
> Two notes for CTC: (1) As the absolute pedigree
> maven on this site, you should
> have been all over the Belmont winner and (2)
> Reviewing some of your posts,it
> seems like when Pletcher wins, its drugs and when
> he loses, its drugs. TAP and
> his owners should be commended for recognizing
> that this race was theirs for
> the taking due to the short field and the
> vulnerability of the top contenders.
>
> Final Note: given the strange economics of the
> business/sport of racing, RTR
> may (hopefully) still be racing long after Hard
> Spun, Street Sense and Curlin
> are retired.

[PapaChach]

also singled rtr...in my case, in the p6 - for $48 i wound up w/4 of them...which pays $0.00, of course...but anyway, i wasn\'t buying the eight year old either...the other loss came in the 2nd leg, thought wait a while was worth playing against but it was a five horse field and i just couldn\'t stomach the thought of tossing the 3/5 and then \"spreading\", wound up on take the ribbon...she stunk...winner of the 1st leg  not only financed the day, he left me with $16 profit...woo-hoo!!! some fortunate p6 investor(s) did about $400,000 better than i did...

supposedly the big bidder/franchise meeting yesterday revealed gov. steamroller\'s intention to have a \"reconstituted\" nyra running racing for next twenty years, w/someone else handling the one armed tax collectors - hopefully some newsdesk will have more details and we can, as joe jackson sang way back when, \"read it in the sunday paper\"...as of now information in re: land ownership issue, how much slots $$$ goes to racing, whether AQU stays open, OTB fiasco, and what exactly constitutes a \"reconstituted\" nyra, is unavailable to the mortal man.

poetic justice in tap breaking his ugly triple crown duck w/a filly, just like his \"daddy\" did...

[cubfan0316]

the biggest favorite tap has ever had, 4-1.

[slewzapper]

\"non-analytical lady money...\"

Do you refer to legions of women placing $2 ATB on the filly?

Or is it identifying the more substantial amounts bet against her by thousands of \"established handicappers\" solely for running against the boys, and not because of speed, form, projected trip, etc.? Call it the non-analytical anti-filly money.

I would say option B was more likely. Did you fall into this category?

Curlin was hammered, excessively given his likelihood of a small regression off the hard last race and overall campaign. He was nearly even money; she was almost 9/2. Both had the opportunity to run their race - so now with the results in, who was overbet and who wasn\'t?