Bullmont Stakes

[richiebee]

Bull:

I understand Bull. Just hard to see RD2 and HAJ so close to each other in any
context.

\"It would take a supreme regression by the top 3Y0s to even allow the \'new
shooters\' to contend, let alone win..\"

I think the Bull was speaking about the Preakness. I think the Bull would now
apply the same logic at Elmont in 1 and 1/2 weeks, especially after the expected
announcement that Ky Derby winner Street Sense will be shipped to Elmont for 12
panel fun.

I think Thursday Nafzger announces that SS is heading east. Nafzger says that
\"we\" are shipping SS to Elmont. What Nafzger is really saying is \"I cant
believe the SOB (Tafel) wants to run in this spot. God darn.\"

I think Tafel might be onto something though. I think this clear thinking 83YO
sees that this years Belmont is a match between the haves and the have nots
I think the have nots are the equivalent of Bull\'s new shooters in the
Preakness.

Without disclosing proprietary commercial information,not Tiago not Sedgewick
not Imwildetc have crossed the great divide. None have visited zero base. And
even if one of these 3 moves forward, you still must get \"supreme regression\"
from the Derby/Preakness Trio (DPT).

Bull I am a self absorbed poster, but not a facetious one. Could you interpret
\"supreme regression\" for me?

I happen to agree. Not only are the DPT arguably clearly potentially fastest,
they have to an extent a bit of a class edge. I think the DPT might be quite
evenly bet in this race, setting up decent MRWs, including the one Bull is
bullish on.

The reason I equivocate of course is the humble perspective of not having a good
feel for 12 furlong 3YO races which are contested around 1 turn. Instinct tells
me that the rider is important. This is why Mr Pino will undoubtedly be riding
a full card on Belmont Day--in Baltimore.

I think one of the DPT needs to be keyed in the P4. Single...

CURLIN 5/2... He absolutely positively has to bounce in the Belmont. There. I
said it, even though my personal belief is that he will run in the Belmont and
2 more races as a 3YO without bouncing and break all of our bankrolls. I looked
for him to bounce in Kentucky; he didn\'t, but he didn\'t beat me. I bought into
the Preakness bounce and didn\'t get it. This HAS to be the day he bounces...not
a big bounce just enough of one to prevent the Asmussenites from enjoying a
victory Rheingold after the big race.

HARD SPUN 5/2... Garrett Go will tell you it lonely at the top, especially
riding a colt for the first time at the freaky 12 panel distance. How has the
track been playing? How much water, wind and sun hits the track in the hour
between the Belmont and the race before it? Garrett has these choices: measured
lead, large lead, speed pop.

My opinion is that HS was hard spent in the Ky Derby; he sucked along in a
fast race in Baltimore. He\'s a tired horse who will show it in the last 1/8th
mile at Belmont..

SS 3/1...should be sitting behind 2 main rivals, and think Borel like Gomez
has lots of discretion over SS\'s placement. SS has run well over many surfaces;
he will be persevered with by Borel in the latest stages of the race; he will
have the benefit of his 2YO foundation. Can win even if 95% tanked given the
inevitable Curlin bounce and a leg weary HS. I still think this guy could
have won the Blue Grass if Nafzger had been a bit more aggressive, and he
was only marginally outrun by Curlin in Baltimore.

Will entertain and chronicle all theories on how one of the HNs can
prevail...Tiago\'s CD gallop out, Sedgefields 1-1/2 mile breeding etc.

Be back tomorrow after they announce that SS skips the Belmont...

[richiebee]

Street Sense to Skip Bullmont

Announced minutes ago ...guess Nafzger wasn\'t swayed by my post.

Curlin bounces to Bullmont win?

More new shooters to be entered emboldened by Street Sense\'s absence?

Can we have a few Pletcher runners maybe?

[shanahan]

hell with it - I\'m going with wildcrazyguy after the KDerby last furlong...really.

[magicnight]

Besides the winner, he was the only one to make up any ground on Hard Spun in the Derby stretch. Not sure how much of a price you will get but it ain\'t a wild and crazy pick.

[Lost Cause]

Was anybody impressed at all with the fact that Tiago blew everybody\'s doors off on the gallop out after the derby??  I don\'t usually put too much stock into gallop outs and I hated Tiago going into the derby but it was impressive.  Somebody please talk me out of playing this horse...I hate him but because of the prices on the top two I might go with him even though I don\'t like him..

[alm]

When you\'ve been betting horses long enough you learn to never talk anyone off a horse.  However, if any of the Belmont hopefuls has a backstory good enough to bet it\'s not Tiago.  It\'s this year\'s Amberoid (a horse who kept closing and closing until he found a distance he loved) Wildncrazy.

However, and it\'s a big however, asking this horse to step up to a loaded Curlin is asking a lot.  I doubt it will happen.

Hard Spun ran clean and well in Kentucky and clean and well in Baltimore, so unless they blood dope him, which may not kick in on short notice anyway, my guess is we\'ve seen the best he has to offer.

You may be stuck with looking for value in any other race on Belmont day.