Rag vs. Sheets Sunday

[The Kid]

Ragozin posted their Sunday numbers, so I went to the Red Board Room on Monday to compare. My two cents.

Race 1. Won by no-secret first time starter. Both Rags and T-Graph had comparable patters for runner up. A push.

Race 2. Winner was slightly faster on Rags (11 top to 11.5 TG, not accounting for TG\'s sheets running abt. 2 points faster.) Patterns seemed debatable; an argument could be made for a forward move on both sheets.

Rags: 12.5, 11, 14.75 last 3 races
T-Graph: 11.5, 11.5 15.25)

Race 2\'s second place horse @ 16/1 was faster on TG and had run a new top last, but TG had the 3rd place horse posting better numbers than the winner, while Rags had him running slower than the winner.

As for the 6/5 fave, who ran 4th, TG had the horse running faster than the winner, while Rags had him at roughly the same number. Looked to bounce on both sheets.

Winner?  Rags.

RACE 3. 2-yr old maidens.

RACE 4. Difficult. Winner had generally backward moving line on both sheets, she looked marginally better off Rags linewise (13.75, 25 non-effort, 13, 12) vs. TG (12.5, 16.25, 9, 7.5), but TG had her back races looking more competitive. 7/5 2nd place horse figured to bounce off of both, but had a strong workout line.

The big difference was that the 4th place 6/5 layoff horse had a good-looking sheet on TG -- 4 straight 8.25 races -- but looked like @!#$ on Ragozin. (17, 13.5, 11.25, 9.75 top)

For that reason, I tip the race to the Rags.

5th race. NY-Bred grass maidens. Winner a pure angle play. Lone speed posting awful \"quit\" number in turf debut. Push, though I welcome insight on other placings.

6th race. Winner had roughly similar patterns on both sheets, and repeat of last race produce 5.80/1 winner on both sheets, though TG pattern could have been read, I think, as a little more prone to bounce.

Rags: 6, 15, 9.5. (4.5 top last year)
TG: 3.25, 10.5, 6 (2.5 top last year.)

As for the 2nd place horse, TG had the horse coming off an 02X win. Rags sheet difficult to read. 6/5 fave looked strong on both sets, though an underlay.

Difficult call. I give TG a narrow win based on the textbook 02X pattern win on the 2nd place horse last out.

7th Race. Rags win. 17-1 winner had good line on both, but had faster CD and GP turf #\'s. 2nd place horse had terrific looking Rags line, good TG line -- fast dirt figs and good race/bad bad race pattern with a good race coming.

8th. Winner Balto Star off a layoff. Not a great sheet play, tho\' TG had last year\'s Spa win faster than Rags. Push.

9th. Tough call. TG had Orientate far faster last race(-2.75) and called the horse a bet-against in its analysis. Rags had healthy line. 2nd place horse figured to bounce big off last on TG, and probably on Rags.

So, the classic question. Do they bounce a little and run well? Who knows? Verdict is a push, tho\' I\'ll bet very few Rags players took a stab beating Orientate, while some TG money got burned on 4th place Philly shipper, which had an impressive TG line, but looked real bad on the Rags. Push

10th. Wire-to-wire winner had far faster TG turf #\'s. Second-place horse @ 10/1 had a far better last-out Mth #, and the 3rd place horse had far faster TG #\'s. Triple paid $895. Decisive TG win based on the top 3\'s numbers, tho\' I\'m not sure the race was a good sheet play. Lots of playable horses. Still, a TG win.

This, hopefully, will prompt constructive discussion. TGJB, why don\'t you repost Saratoga 8/11 and let the voters decide.

[Michael D.]

Interesting read on the sheets. I think both products are excellent, and used TG on Sunday. I had the Prado horse in the 6th equal to the two favorites, which is a win I guess at 5.8/1. I am not sure you can make any reasonable comparisons in the seventh, as the even money favorite was three lengths faster going in, three lengths faster during the race, and is still three lengths faster. You would have had to predict that JJ would get buried in the stretch and have no shot at all to win in order to have the winner. I had Balto in the eighth, based on the \"4\" from last year, combined with a very firm turf and a new aggressive rider. The horse could have easily set the track record if JR asked him a bit sooner (only missed it by one tick, and that would have been JR\'s third track record in six weeks). As for the feature, I am sure the Bailey/Lucas team was a strong single on both. I used two horses in the last, JR was on one, and I think the other was the favorite. I think they ran third and fourth, so if TG was a big winner, I was a big loser.

[TGJB]

My guess is that Ragozin looked better for the day--that may be why they decided to post it, since they don\'t often do it, decided retroactively, and didn\'t post Belmont Day. After very good days Friday and Saturday (hit the Sword Dancer super on a 4 horse box) my girlfriend and I left the Spa Sunday and headed North, and I glanced at the card only briefly.
  I would have hit Durmiente, but probably not too much else, and would definitely have taken a shot against Orientate.
  I am all for post race examination of the two products, which is one reason we have the Red Board Room, but the study is skewed if we do it daily, and they do it selectively. Why don\'t you ask them if they will do it for the rest of the Saratoga meet, or at least pick certain days in advance? I don\'t see any reason why they can\'t--do you?