The Beyer Conclusion

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Having read his books and considered his opinion, tonight the reality of Andrew Beyer settled in upon me. Anyone that has followed this game for any number of years has to have observed Andy flailing away with the Derby. Andy reinvented Speed Figures in a methodical attempt to bring consistency to the game and logic to his wagers. Without being able to recall the precise Year and Comment, Andy has very much been a student of statistics, or in other words, a follower of Derby trends in placing his wagers. With all of his logic, statistics and trends, Andrew Beyer is Nada at Churchill Downs on the 1st Saturday in May.

Today the trend that is important to him is the 2YO race foundation. Last year it very well may have been no more than 4 weeks layoff and I believe that was one of his contentions. Thereafter, he predicted a Barbaro Triple Crown. Three years ago, when the gelded Funny Cide won the Derby I\'m nearly certain he felt a Gelding was not a statistical edge wager. Two years ago he selected Bellamy Road because that one was a statistical beast upon his last Beyer Number.

In conclusion, Andy\'s belief system can be condensed to this: \"There are ways of shortcutting the full evaluation process in selecting a winner\" There are shortcuts to rule out certain variables to increase ones methodical focus upon those that \"can\" win. His whole life has been devoted to reducing a horse to an equation and he\'s not going to change now.

Andy Beyer says that Curlin cannot win and will finish worse than 10th because he never raced as a 2YO. If Curlin gets pinned in the clubhouse turn and finishes 8th Andy will likely feel empowered by the mathematics in the continuing statistical trend. Maybe Curlin will not win, but trends are broken by the right horse in the right place at the right time. Such was the case of Barbaro last year and Lammatara in the English Derby some years back. (A Derby won upon only one other race is my recollection.) Both horses broke the mold and reset the trends. Such events are anathema to methodical statisticians whose minds need to arrange the data and require structure and order in attempts to limit what they perceive as the chaos.

http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=84537&subs=0&arc=0

Will talk about the race next

[spa]

May I caution you, a stopped clock is right twice a day. He\'s right on Curlin. Hard Spun lost my support after that work. ps....no bar shoes

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

spa Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> May I caution you, a stopped clock is right twice
> a day. He\'s right on Curlin. Hard Spun lost my
> support after that work. ps....no bar shoes

Post Work, Hard Spun has been frolicking and eating like a 15 year old involved in high school athletics.

He ran that work swiveling his ears about like Bush using Norad to spy on Peace Groups.

[NoCarolinaTony]

Why are you discussing Beyer on TG Board.

Go Email him directly. He might reply to you.

NC Tony

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Tony, now don\'t get surly. I know your Poly to Dirt angle took a beating on the Post Position Draw, but theres no need to get all rambunctious about it. We have two days left to hammer out this Derby and I certainly wasn\'t discussing Beyer for Beyer\'s sake.

The topic dealt with Beyer\'s dismissal of Curlin based upon Statistical Trends that have very little to do with figure pattern reads. If I don\'t miss my guess Curlin looks very nice on TGraph pattern. Maybe a top last. I\'m surmising a minor move forward to that top. In that regard, he could be sitting upon a Funny Cide pattern race, of course without the Funny Cide 2YO foundation.

Whats exciting about this Derby is that theres few horses to suspect Bounce is going to be an issue. Those that could be bounce concerns seem to be in the Pletcher barn. In other words, either these horses are on the slow side or many that may be poised to fire their very best race.

I thought it was silly for Beyer to dismiss Curlin on that angle in light of all the positive aspects. The Post is likely to get Curlin in more trouble than any Apollo Trend.

NoCarolinaTony Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Why are you discussing Beyer on TG Board.
>
> Go Email him directly. He might reply to you.
>
> NC Tony

[NoCarolinaTony]

The only trend now is more time between races. Less foundation (except Tim Tuefle).

He\'s fighting the new trend.

NC Tony

[jmetro]

If Curlin is beat it\'s more likely by pilot error than two year old foundation.  This guy had 22 and change speed from the gate, in his maiden win at GP, and closed his last eighth in under 12 seconds at OP, don\'t think anyone else in this field has those kind of gears.  If Stevens or Bailey are up Beyer is likely gushing over this animal.

[fkach]

This race is so wide open that all the horses with \"suspect\" preparation going in might lose and it could have nothing to do with preparation. If that happens, after the fact, everyone will again point out their favorite negative stat, but it will be hard to know what caused the defeat.

IMHO, issues like seasoning and being prepared to go 10F are almost obvious factors, but you shouldn\'t apply hard fast rules to the race. You should look at the specifics of each horse.