It may not be sexy....but....

[SoCalMan2]

why not simply box the five fastest horses in the exacta?  I think this adds up to Pletchers top 3 plus Street Sense and Curlin -- these 5 seem a quantum better than the rest.  A $2 box of the top 5 will cost $40.  Maybe if the favorites run 1-2 you cash less than you bet.  If you get any of the Pletchers up, you will definitely profit, and if it is a Pletcher exacta, you should at least triple your money.  While it is not a grand slam or anything like that, it sure does not seem that risky a bet and the return is not too bad.  Feel free to fire away at this idea, but with 20 horses in the race, a lot of dumb money sloshing around in the pools, and some hard decisions to make otherwise, this seems like a possibly coherent play.  Of course, when I see the probably pays I may just say this is dumb and not do it.  Remember, if you are boxing 3 horses in a 12 horse race, you are boxing a quarter of the race and that is the same thing here with 20 horses.  This way, you avoid making tough choices.  While one, two, or three of the top five may encounter trouble or not fire, it is hard to imagine 4 of them doing that.