Circular Quay, Derby Madness & Negative Numbers

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Flighted Iron wrote:

 "No Eddie.Some of us have not forgotten CQ.It\'s quite possible CQ has run the
fastest TG# for a 3 year old male so far.I\'m sticking to him and his 8 week
layoff.Yes,he hasn\'t gone past 8 1/2 furlongs,but so what!Everything about
this horse suggests distance will not be an issue.Coming from so far back through
traffic is the only concern I have.Hopefully a Pleasant Colony trip is in the
works.
farewell"

Circular Quay:  http://www.pedigreequery.com/circular+quay

The Thunder Gulch part of the pedigree isn't bad, but in reality his best one is Point Given and that one was out of a Turkoman mare. Circular Quay is out of a Belong to Me mare and Belong to Me was never effective beyond a sprint. Quay's direct tail female family to four generations is best right at his dam and she was a mid distance, second cut stakes filly. There's quite a big difference in pedigree between Quay and Point Given.

Quays rush may look good at 8.5 but then so did Arazi's.

Add to that the missed Wood and this is a wishing and hoping horse. You've got to hope he's fit. You've got to hope he beat a decent field in the Louisiana Derby, (Ketjikan and Zanjero?) You've got to wish he can get added distance. You've got to hope he's up to the new competition he will face.  It's a pretty tall order. You should get real good odds on those variables, unless you're prepared to place all your faith in Pletcher.  Faith betting is what Bush is doing.

spa wrote:

First,is Curlin for real? Yes,but not for the derby. Second,he\'s going to be pounded in the pools. Third,we\'ll end up with all the money.

I don't know. I'm not sure how any Derby handicapper can't look at Curlin and think. "This horse may embarrass this bunch." You have to be a very big believer in the no 2YO race angle to not be concerned. I think TGraph may figure this one for bounce, but in his case is that just a way to remove the favorite from consideration. It wasn\'t that much of a top by all number makers.

Flushedstraight wrote:

This quote by Jones after the poly race is a bit troubling:
\"He seems to like Polytrack and Keeneland is almost like home,\" Jones said. \"We definitely want one more prep.\"

So what happened?

Bothers me too.

NC Tony wrote:
 
I think this group is the slowest we\'ve had in a few years.

Because they are slow or because they are being managed for a potentially career best  effort? I think theres a couple of exceptional horses in this Derby.

[NoCarolinaTony]

CTC

Only time will tell.

NC Tony

[Silver Charm]

CtC,

Care to weigh in on the Curlin pedigree. I took a look on the pedigreequerry and it looks LOADED with speed.

4.00 Dosage to boot.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I\'ll oblige Silver. First and foremost I\'m a numbers guy, but there is a time for review of pedigree in trying to determine if a horse can do what he hansn\'t attempted before. I do like aspect of the game that involves the continuity of blood.

http://www.pedigreequery.com/curlin


First off, you have to take note at how convincing the win at 9 furlongs was. Not sure he beat the best group of runners, but you could have said the same of Afleet Alex after his dominating Ark win two years ago. He came home in 11.91 upon what I believe to have been a slowish track.

Hes sired a few millionaires. Horses like Tenpins, Soaring Free, English Channel, Fleetside Dancer.

Hes sired several Canadian Champions.

What I like about some of his get is that they run on for multiple year campaigns, 30, 40 or 50 races. That said he himself had a typical Prospector career and some of his champions are 2YO champs with similar short careers.

Regarding Smart Strikes 4.6 Dosage. All i can say is that its about the best 4.6 dosage I\'ve ever seen. His Dam sired a Canadian Triple Crown winner and one of the best fillies I\'ve ever seen. Her Dam was No Class, perhaps the best Canadian Blue Hen of all time dropping Sky Classic, Regal Classic, Classy n Smart. Theres distance in this horses pedigree and hes already thrown English Channel and a filly that won the Grade I Personal Ensign at 10 marks.

Female side is unraced. Second Dam was a quality mare. Remote female isn\'t remarkable other than it has some very good distance blood filtering down from sires on that side.

Definitely capable of getting that additional pole in my opinion. He could certainly win this race, but if he does it will be in a battle.





Silver Charm Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> CtC,
>
> Care to weigh in on the Curlin pedigree. I took a
> look on the pedigreequerry and it looks LOADED
> with speed.
>
> 4.00 Dosage to boot.

[Silver Charm]

Just looks like a lot of speed to me but also the kind of speed that brings Brilliance!!!

Estimates are the owners paid $3.0M for the horse after he broke his maiden. I figure if the horse never runs another race they are even.

If he wins the Derby they get about 8-1 or put another way the horse is worth about $25M.

If any of us wants to bet him, on a two dollar win ticket we get $10.00.

[miff]

Re Curlin Chuck said:

\" He came home in 11.91 upon what I believe to have been a slowish track.\"


Chuck,

The track was slow at OP and Curlin\'s last eighth is the fastest of any prep(except the BG which featured that sprint to the line)Look deeper at the entire day, 4/14 at Oaklawn, and you will see a very unusual pattern of almost every race featuring a strong last 1/8 (12ish) or last 1/16th (6ish). Even the cheaper slow horses finished fast that day.Maybe the 11.91 is not as impressive as it would normally be in this instance.

Distance breeding has become somewhat of a non issue over the recent past as it seems horses have been outrunning their distance limitations.

Mike