Help, I made a costly mistake!

[Point_Given_Gal]

The Date: Saturday July 27, 2002,

The Time: Approximately 6:35pm CDT,

The Race: The  Bing Crosby Breeders\' Cup H.  Grade: 2
Kona Gold - One of my favorite horses ever was scratched so I looked to the TG sheets for an alternative.

I thought that I was reading the sheets correctly when I noticed that the 1 horse Mellow Fellow had several 0s and 1s on his TG sheet.  In analyzing the sheets thoughtly I came to the conclusion that I would put my money on Mellow Fellow to Win, Place and Show.  My only question was that he had been beaten by Disturbingthepeace last time out and his best races were at No. Cal tracks (BM and GG).  I went ahead and put my money on Mellow Fellow (at 4-1) to WPS and Dammit Disturbingthepeace, the favorite, looked excellent winning the race (Disturbingthepeace: close up, inside, came out turn, bid 2wd,led past 1/8,gamely) and my horse was left laboring in 3rd (Mellow Fellow: saved ground, inside move, came out bit lane,game for 3rd).  

So next time should I give less credit to the numbers if they were earned at tracks that do not have as challenging fields as NY or So Cal tracks?

What can I do better next time and how can I learn from this mistake.  I thought that I was being smart by not betting the favorite. I am going to Del Mar in a few weeks and I dont want to make the same mistakes in reading the sheets.

Thank you in advance.

Michelle

[TGJB]

I looked at the race and I totally agree with your play. The only possible knock on Mellow Fellow is the trainer switch 2 back, but it wouldn\'t have dissuaded me.
In general, figures at different tracks are worth the same. Some horses don\'t run well after shipping, but that\'s a seperate question. I would have also played Disturbingthepeace to bounce.

[Point_Given_Gal]

I appreciate your help!!

Some awesome races this weekend at \"The Spa\".  

Best of luck and enjoy!!