sightseeing to jerry(TGJB)QUESTION

[stellastar31]

my QUESTION IS OF CURIOUSITY LOOKING AT YOUR NUMBERS OF SIGHTSEEING WIDE TRIP IN THE WOOD CAN WE TAKE  OPINION THAT IF STAYS ON THE RAIL HIS NUMBER IN THE RACE IS EQUAL OR BETTER THAN SHOWBIZ # AND CAN WE SAY THERE WAS ACHANCE HE COULD OF ACTUALLY WON THE RACE CONSIDERING HIS TRIP HE DIDNT LOSE BY THAT MUCH, ASFOR THE PHIPPS FAMILY NOT GOING TO THE DERBY THERE ACLASSY FAMILY OF OLD BLUEBLOODS WHO ARE PRIVATE ON HOW THEY CONDUCT THERE RACING OPERATION

[TGJB]

TG sheets for Future Pool 3 will be available here this weekend, and will include the Wood figures. Yes, Sightseeing got a slightly better figure than the winner.

[miff]

JB,

Note the comments on the board Re Sightseing. Given what most saw, i.e. No Biz ran better/harder all around than Sightseeing, it would be noteworthy for you to comment on horses that get better TG figs even though that ran,all around, substantially worse.The margin of victory does not come close to the \"truth\" of that race and the figs are misleading at best.No Biz was involved throughout whereas Sight was uninvolved until the last 3/16th and hung very late.Is this not a classic case where ground and ground alone distorts the reality.

How do you interpret this situation if these horses face off again.Are you of the opinion that Sight is faster( not faster fig but a faster horse)Thanks.

Mike

[TGJB]

Miff-- I am of the opinion he ran a better figure that day. We can all have our own opinions as to who will do better if they meet at various points down the line. We\'ll even all have our opinions of whether S will bounce next time.

[miff]

JB,

Thanks, no question TG formula gives Sight the better fig.I was more interested if you consider that Sight is presently a faster horse than No Biz off the Wood and I think you said yes.

Mike

[Michael D.]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> JB,
>
> Note the comments on the board Re Sightseing.
> Given what most saw, i.e. No Biz ran better/harder
> all around than Sightseeing, it would be
> noteworthy for you to comment on horses that get
> better TG figs even though that ran,all around,
> substantially worse.The margin of victory does not
> come close to the \"truth\" of that race and the
> figs are misleading at best.No Biz was involved
> throughout whereas Sight was uninvolved until the
> last 3/16th and hung very late.Is this not a
> classic case where ground and ground alone
> distorts the reality.
>
> How do you interpret this situation if these
> horses face off again.Are you of the opinion that
> Sight is faster( not faster fig but a faster
> horse)Thanks.
>
> Mike


If Nobiz wasn\'t \"involved throughout\", he probably would have found trouble and/or run wide. This was as easy as it is going to get for Nobiz. He didn\'t run any \"better\" than any figure will suggest.

[miff]

Mike D,

I totally agree.That was not my point. The race was kinda ordinary. My point was that he ran substantially better than Sight who got a better fig. Anyone with a little racing knowledge of trips/pace knows that.

Mike

[Michael D.]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Mike D,
>
> I totally agree.Thats was not my point. The race
> was kinda ordinary. My point was that he ran
> substantially better than Sight who got a better
> fig. Anyone with a little racing knowledge of
> trips/pace knows that.
>
> Mike


do all horses that run on the pace run \"better\" than their figure, and all who lay back run \"worse\"? Mike, Nobiz ran up front on a :23, :47 pace. nothing unusual. Sight closed into the :23, :47 pace. nothing unusual. Nobiz ran exactly as his figure would suggest, as did Sightseeing.  

i have no problem upgrading or downgrading a fig (considering it better or worse) when a horse goes too fast early, and another picks up weak pieces late. the \'07 Wood deserves no such adjustment.

[fkach]

\"do all horses that run on the pace run \"better\" than their figure, and all who lay back run \"worse\"?\"

Actually, I think the answer to that is almost a \"yes\".

Typically front runners work harder to dispose of each other early and then repulse the mid and late race bids of stalkers and deeper closers. That is why when one gets loose in a soft pace they often run a huge figure relative to their typical performance.

The problem with closers like Sightseeing is that it\'s easy to lay back, make a late run, and pick up a minor piece when most of the horses that were actually trying to win have exhausted themselves with either early or middle moves to get into and stay in contention. It\'s a lot more difficult to actually win with that trip unless the whole race collapses. IMO, if he actually tried to win by getting involved earlier so he was in an excellent postion (like AGS), he would have had to use himself harder and his inferiority to No Biz at this stage would have been exposed.