3 weeks

[SoCalMan2]

It seems to me that the Bluegrass and the Wood Memorial are coming up as the strongest Kentucky Derby preps this year.  My recollection going back over the years is that this is often true and usually both these preps generate figures good enough to win the Derby.  (I am too lazy to check the archives, but I suspect I am right).  However, I also recall that there have been some prominent bounces coming out of these two prep races (Sinister Minister and Bellamy Road are two recent examples that immediately spring to mind).  

With such strong races only 3 weeks before the Derby, the situation seems overly conducive to causing a very good horse (or horses) -- possibly even the favorite -- to be in the position of bouncing in the Derby.  Given how widespread bounce theory has become, I am wondering if these preps will be moved back another week in future years. I recall that the Bluegrass used to be 10 days before the Derby and the Wood Memorial was always 2 weeks before the Derby, so they have already moved quite a bit from their historic timing.  Do people here see this trend continuing?  Is anybody aware of any discussion that the Bluegrass and the Wood are too close in time to the Derby?  I am curious what TGJB thinks would be the optimum rest for coming into the Derby.

[BitPlayer]

They\'ve already moved the Wood.  It\'s at 4 weeks this year.

[SoCalMan2]

Thank you for the correction.  Boy, do I feel like a dummy.

[miff]

I think that I read the Bluegrass was run within days of the Derby way back when and that a horse won the Derby just days after winning the BG.Thats when horses seemed much sounder and not nearly as inbred.

Mike

[bobphilo]

\"I think that I read the Bluegrass was run within days of the Derby way back when and that a horse won the Derby just days after winning the BG.Thats when horses seemed much sounder and not nearly as inbred.\"


There was even a time when horses would run in between the Triple Crown races.

Current horses' unsoundness is not so much due to inbreeding but to what the industry is inbreeding for. Every geneticist knows that inbreeding itself does not create faults or unsoundness; it just brings out what is already there – good and bad.
The great breeder Federico Tesio, who bred Ribot, wrote some excellent papers on the value of inbreeding properly and put it into practice. If the industry continues to inbred to unsound horses, we will get increasingly unsound progeny. Soundness and quality can also come from inbreeding if the breeding stock is selected for soundness.
If on the other hand, people only breed for a horse that can breeze a fast furlong to bring a big price at sales and rush to breed to horses that can only stand up to a few big races before they breakdown, then we are inbreeding for unsoundness and we\'ll continue to get it - in spades.

Bob

[miff]

There is no science to suggest that because a horse is bred to breeze fast, it will be less sound than one not bred to breeze fast early. Soundness cannot be geneticially engineered.Some stallions/mares just throw unsoundness, period, I\'ve had enough of them to know.The Sheik\'s and others have employed the top geneticists trying to find the next superhorse, to no avail.

The horses that breezed very fast in the recent OBS under tack sold for big money. The ones that did not sold low or were buy backs. Speed sells and is king at the sales. If you are lucky enough to have a 2yr old run fast first out, chances are you\'re a millionaire if you sell.A Forest Wildcat breezed in 21+ quarter and went for 900k, my friend left the bidding at 700k.

Mike

[bobphilo]

No, being able to breeze fast early does not mean that a horse will turn out to be unsound. The point I was making is that if one only selects breeding stock for speed without regard to soundness, then you will get speed without soundness. All gentic tendencies towards unsoundness in breeding stock are routinely overlooked if a horse trasmits speed as well. The gene pool will drift towards charecteristics that are both selected for (speed) and not selected against (unsoundness).
In nature, natural selection eliminates the unsound from the gene pool, mostly from predators, which is why wild stock is usually very sound.
The components that contribute to soundness are just as much genetically determined as any other physical traits.
Inbreeding only contributes in the sense that one is inbreeding to unsound stock.

Bob

[BitPlayer]

A dummy you\'re clearly not.  To me the interesting part of your post concerns bouncing and the Blue Grass.  If indeed Polytrack plays a lot like turf (as this week\'s ROTW analysis suggested) and is kinder on horses, my uneducated guess is is that it should also produce fewer and/or smaller bounces.  In that case, the surface change at Keeneland may do more for the Blue Grass as a Derby prep than a date shift ever could (sorry Richiebee).

Of course, if you need graded earnings (Any Given Saturday is particularly interesting in this regard) and aren\'t sure if your horse will take to the carpet, the Blue Grass may not be so attractive.

[richiebee]

Bit:

   Obviously no apology necessary. And the truth is I am more fascinated with
the frequency and distance of Hard Spun\'s 3YO Derby preps than I am with the
surfaces on which these preps will be run.

   Jan 13-- 1 mile Lecomte at FG; Feb 19-- 1 Mile Southwest at OP; March 24--
1-1/8 mile Lanes End at Turfway; and April 14-- 1-1/8th mile Blue Grass.

   A couple of years ago it was discussed about the times they be a changing,
how so many Derby hopefuls were coming into the big race relatively lightly
raced.

   Hard Spun, on the basis of running 4 prep races as a 3YO with a total
combined distance of 34 furlongs, might be considered a throwback to
days when equine warriors were seen much more frequently.

   A certain clown might be interested to know that the only animal to win the
Turfway prep now known as the Lanes End and come back to win the Derby was PA
bred Lil E Tee.

[marcus]

interesting stuff - i\'ve been wondering about the similarities ( and differences ) between turf and the new poly type racing surfaces myself , and considering whether poly could actually beckon or set-up the bounce when switching back dirt - becouse it ( poly ) seems to play so friendly ( at times ) ,imo  it potentially enable\'s the horse to expend a higher energy curve during the race and all the way into the very late fractions . how  poly to dirt surface switches manifest or express themselfs is definately a \"type\" of \"x\" factor  for me ...

[SoCalMan2]

Sure looks like Todd Pletcher feels that 3 weeks is too short.  He is pulling Any Given Saturday out of the Blue Grass because the 3 weeks looks too short to him.  The guy has like 10 Derby horses and he is not running one of them in the Blue Grass. If Street Sense bounces in the Derby of a big Blue Grass effort, I suspect we will be hearing a lot more about how the Blue Grass needs to be 4 weeks before the Derby.

[miff]

TAP is also juggling preps to keep his contenders apart while trying to get graded earnings for a few of them.

Cir Quays defection from the Wood is significant.The horse must have an issue or is not training well.

Mike

[marcus]

If Street Sense did run a small top with-in his range last time - imo , why not another such effort ( or two ) next before the Bounce - might not even be the worst move giving the horse a little more time to keep him as fresh as possible and forgering ahead for a serious run at the other triple crown races too . Last years Blue Grass winner\'s pattern  was very different , a good , not so fast 0 X 0 type running a 7 pt top  ...