Speed/Front End Bias @ TP 3/24

[Sandreadis]

#1 Speed horses 1-2
#2 Speed horses 1-2
#3 Wire to wire by 6 lengths
#4 Wire to wire by 2 lengths
#5 Wire to wire by 2 lenghts
#6 Wire to wire by 6 lenghts
#7 Horse on lead 2nd beaten head
#8 Stalkers run 1-2
#9 Stalkers  run 1-2
#10 Hard Spun 3w,3w 22.3 first quarter, draws off at 1 1/8??
#11 Wire to wire Speed 1-2

Beware Hard Spun fans, there was a huge bias yesterday. Closers didn\'t have a chance.

[Michael D.]

just a quick look, but ... three of the wire jobs were odds on, and the rest of the speed winners took serious money (except one in a maiden race, odds on finished second). looks like fast horses beat slow horses, no?

i was impressed with HS.

[fkach]

I haven\'t watched all the races and don\'t know many of those horses. So I have no opinion on whether there was a bias. But you have to be careful about assuming that just because the horses that won were bet that means there wasn\'t a bias. Sometimes it works the other way around. After a series of races where certain paths or styles seem to be doing well, people start betting the horses they think will benefit from the \"supposed bias\". So it looks like there just happened to be a series of short priced horses of the same style winning. However, they may not have been as logical as the odds suggest except for the bias related wagering. I think bias analysis requires a detailed understanding of the ability of the horses, their trips, and how they actually ran. That\'s pretty tough unless it\'s your home track.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I didn\'t perceive a bona fide bias, though per usual, talented horses with speed were advantaged. That said there were a good number of exceptional off pace efforts by horses at longer odds. Bias is a very delicate determination and when it is discovered without public knowledge it can be a wonderful betting edge.

For the subject Turfway card however, I\'d be much more interested in Tgraph\'s opinion of changing track speed.

Hard Spun will probably be in the top three betting choices for the Bluegrass and its unlikely he\'ll go off any higher than about 5-1. If he gets beat there I\'m going to attribute it to running into some very good horses.

You have to be careful you don\'t set yourself up for a \"Speedy Gonzalez\". That is changing the variables because you don\'t like the result.

Hard Spun Certainly has a nice TFig Profile, courtesy of the Red Board Room. Hits a fast juvenile top his last juvenile race. Immediately matches it as a 3YO and then equals it again with a buried notation. In the Lanes End he went forward signficantly if I don\'t miss my guess. Nice figure profile.

Though only 5-2 Hard Spun was a Tgraph coup. Much faster with solid profile.

Sandreadis Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> #1 Speed horses 1-2
> #2 Speed horses 1-2
> #3 Wire to wire by 6 lengths
> #4 Wire to wire by 2 lengths
> #5 Wire to wire by 2 lenghts
> #6 Wire to wire by 6 lenghts
> #7 Horse on lead 2nd beaten head
> #8 Stalkers run 1-2
> #9 Stalkers  run 1-2
> #10 Hard Spun 3w,3w 22.3 first quarter, draws off
> at 1 1/8??
> #11 Wire to wire Speed 1-2
>
> Beware Hard Spun fans, there was a huge bias
> yesterday. Closers didn\'t have a chance.

[davidrex]

If there was a bias ,then the winner of the Rushaway is the next Invasor.

[fkach]

After a quick glance at the charts, I would suggest that it\'s at least \"possible\" that sprints and routes were playing differently. If anyone follows Turfway closely and has any insights into how the track has been playing recently, that might help. As suggested above, most of the sprints were short priced horses (and not just late in the card, all the way through).