pool 2 derby favorites ??

[Michael D.]

Siphonic- a mile and a quarter unlikely

Harlan\'s Holiday- can win the Blue Grass, and could wind up a brilliant miler, but this horse will not be charging down the lane on derby day... not a chance.

Came Home- see Siphonic.

Repent- a smooth change of leads after Bailey makes him run a solid first mile is extremely unlikely. (I do concede to him the Illinois Derby however)

Johannesburg- will not even finish the race.

Mayakovsky- see Johannesburgh

Sunday Break- better chance than the others, but unseasoned, wait for the fall.

By default, I\'m leaning towards Saarland, the slowest thorograph horse of them all. At least we know he is getting the mile and a quarter.

[rail]

You know what? Right now I have to agree with you. It seems to me that Saarland is the one most likely to be improving heading into the 1st Saturday in May.

He was close to the pace yesterday (especially for a Shug horse) and held on well.

And surprisingly (to me at least), it seems Godolphin doesn\'t have any competitors ready.

[OPM]

A word to the wise, don\'t forget the fastest horse, Came Home (or maybe Harlan\'s Holiday).  Horses almost never explode in the Derby, they might improve a point or so but if Sarland is running 5\'s after the Wood(or even 3\'s) he is not winning the Derby.  Also, exactly what is it that you don\'t like about HH\'s line?

[Michael D.]

Came home is a relatively small horse with a sprinter\'s stride. He simply can not keep the pace he has been running for a mile and a quarter. With the Breeder\'s Cup and Dubai sprint a perfect fit for this horse, I dont think they will use him too much to try and win the Derby.

Harlan\'s Holiday has stretched out well at Remington, Keeneland and Gulfstream, and I can see him running well again in the Bluegrass. A mile and a quarter at Churchill Downs, however, is a completely different ballgame. Look for a nice middle move in the derby, but after that, down the lane.... who knows ?? At small odds, the play is to bet the Harlan sprinting genes will show through, and he will flatten out.

[rail]

OPM wrote:
>
> A word to the wise, don\'t forget the fastest horse, Came Home
> (or maybe Harlan\'s Holiday).  Horses almost never explode in
> the Derby, they might improve a point or so but if Sarland is
> running 5\'s after the Wood(or even 3\'s) he is not winning the
> Derby.  Also, exactly what is it that you don\'t like about
> HH\'s line?

 I thought Harlan\'s was the best. But look at it this way, did you think he ran better than a 2 on Saturday? If so, do you think he is gonna regress, pair-up, or move forward in his next start? AFTER that is his Derby start.

If the Derby were in 3 or 4 weeks, I\'m playing Harlan\'s, but it\'s ~7 weeks away.

Saarland on the other hand is just getting started on his 3yo campaign. He\'s fresh & as a 3yo son of Unbridled he has plenty of room to improve on his 2yo #\'s.

The fact that he won at 9 furlongs as 2yo is reassuring also (I know the KD is 10).

Saarland\'s race Sunday was a mere prep. I considered it a good work.

I think Shug has the Derby horse. Can this change? Sure. But right now I like where they stand.