Wednesday at Polywood

[richiebee]

Big doings on the Cushion Wednesday, with a 2 day $540,000 plus carryover into the Pick 6.

The P6 sequence includes a 2YO two turn maiden claimer, a 50,000 claimer for
3yOs on the grass, an 8,000 claimer which drew a full field, another 2YO maiden
claimer (this one 6-1/2 furlongs), a 7 furlong allowance race which drew 5
runners (all of whom have been running in stakes) and a Cal Bred maiden special
at a mile on the lawn.

I know there is always an emotional letdown after the big events, like the BC
and the Kentucky Derby sponsored by Yums!, but maybe we could get a Thoro- fueled
dialogue going on these six races. Any stick outs? Any throw outs?

[marcus]

Perhaps the entire 3 yo season could use a little attention from the army core of engineers ( who incidently are in town right now ) and also they could make a quick stop off in Red Hook before heading on to points south and west ...  

One must have the bankroll to approach P-6 plays from a professional standpoint so after having looked at the 1st 2 legs I stopped becouse it\'s very doubtfull that I\'ll be putting anything in Weds , and it looks right now like I\'m probably taking clear through to the end of GP meet off as well ...
 
Lrl has had  .50 cent p-6 plays and at that price , the combinations and bet becomes managable .

But - at Hollywood , the 1st leg: Race-3- is tough , although  Strip N Carson is already fast enough and pattern looks set for another good race .

Race -4- , the second leg isn\'t much easier to approach than the 1st and the horse with a recent number that would take this is on very short rest - Ferndale Sal .  I don\'t know if either one of these 2 races are the ones to spread out on ...      

[richiebee]

Well you know how it is Marcus, I feel kind of like Tommy Lasorda in those World
Series commercials, trying to get people who think the season is over to get
interested in baseball after their teams have been eliminated. (My favorite one
of these was when Lasorda told some young Red Sox fans \"C\'mon kids, you know
what you gotta do. Now go out there and root against the Yankees...\")

I think its natural for there to be a letdown after the Breeders Cup, and I know
lots of TG users/posters are recharging their batteries waiting for the opening
of the winter venues. Its kind of exciting for me just to see that horses are
working out at the Fair Grounds after the dark year caused by Katrina.

With regards to New Orleans, my feeling is that in 15 years this City will
either be the greatest urban renewal/ reclamation story ever told or a ghost
town. Having lived there for the better part of 2 years, I am hoping for the
former, but also agree with those taking the pessimistic view, given the City\'s
long traditions of crime, poverty and political corruption.

All of your points about bankroll and the pick 6 are valid, but now and then on
Wednesdays I get together with a friend and we pool our resources in the P6.

As for Polywood, Ferndale Sal (leg 2) could set off long debates among
performance figurers. FS hung up a new top-- and a number faster than any other
animal in this race has run-- 6 days ago. DRF\'s trainer stats reveal that
trainer Abrams is 2 for 39 bringing horses back 7 days or under. TG\'s trainer
profile measures Abrams\' success for horses brought back in under 11 days;
the sample is larger and the picture is a bit more encouraging.

Adding to Sal\'s number appeal is the fact that the horse in the race who is
arguably second fastest is a non winner of 2 lifetime and has never won on the
turf.

Fastest yes, but before taking a strong position I would want to see if the
Polywood condition book is available online. If Polywood writes state bred N2X
races on the turf, and one is coming up, I would take that as a negative (Sal\'s
last win was in a state bred N1X on the turf). IMO, the fewer opportunities that
were available to Sal, the more positive I would be about his chances Wednesday;
possibly the quick re-entry is a function of there being very few spots
available for this horse in the near future.

Paralysis by over-analysis? Count on it!

[marcus]

richiebee - Your so right about that Lasorda / MLB Ad and the look on his face when he finds out the one guy is a Cubs fan ... Red Sox always lose , it\'s part of the culture up there - \'04 was sweet though & Cards and Yanks were no push overs and never are .  

Just out of TG alone and the many subsequent associations and aquaintences along the way , we all have alot to be thankfull for - even for those raggies and those I suppose who routinely help out on the board w/ spelling , grammer , etc  . After 20 yrs in New York I\'m beginning to understand why the kids here try to be louder than everything around them ...  

The Big Easy and FG might be the place this upcoming season indeed  , conditions GP probably are still questionable - maybe on the 2nd or 3rd attempt to remeadiate problems w/ the construction project they\'ll get it right through sheer repetition but I wouldn\'t hold my breath . I\'m looking forward to pulling down some prices with the late season 2 yo\'s  and then the  upcoming Friday Night cards in So Cal and - they have lights !  Friday Night Racing is taken seriously on the West Coast and pools are full of money even if the cards are a little thin at times , so it is quite possible to get value .

That Pick 6 looks pretty shakey and if the Jackpot wasn\'t so big , I would definately say pass it - but those are absolutely the kind prices that should be played for . However I will say that after having looked  at sheets for  the rest of the HOL card , I still don\'t see dollar signs or even  one race where I can confidently single a horse except for exactly right where you don\'t want to single a horse - in the 1st leg .

Polywood -3- Strip N Carson + Velocity Cat / Classy Dish

Polywood -4- Ferando Sal and next fastest Pistol Creek

Polywood -5- I B Bad could OXOX all the way back to victory and Tommyland\'s off a secondary cycle as is Talking To John who should benifit from a trainer change .

Polywood -6- Fly By\'s trainer roi for off tracks is something to think about . Palm Breeze was slow enough at WOX this summer that the recent nummber  could mean better is coming now . Jump Rope Girl has got that frying pan pattern that can go forward .

Polywood -7- Harvard Avenue and Truley A Judge look rational .

Polywood -8- Valley Stream is fast and trainer is much better 2nd and 3rd off lay offs . She\'s All Magic bounce last time set\'s up a potential effort now and  has ok turf breeding . Dry Your Eyes looks ready to run - has decent #\'s and pattern  .                  

 

[jbelfior]

Richie:


Just a little more patience. Excellent slate of races coming up Thanksgiving weekend.


Makes spending Thursday with the in-laws a bit more tolerable....\"as visions of The Turf Festival danced through my head.\"


Good Luck,
Joe B.