Thoro-Patterns: The Breeders Cup Classic

[Michael D.]

based on thoro-graph thoro-patterns:

bernardini - fast and ready to pair or run a new top.
brother derek - pretty fast, should be able to run his race. not looking for a new top though.
david junior - pretty fast, but going from turf to dirt. ? .
flower alley - past figures, but like most of the older horses, is more likely to go back than forward, and he hasn\'t run very fast in \'06.
george washington - turf to dirt?
giacomo - not a bad pattern, pair or back likely though. foresee a :27 last quarter though? i don\'t.
invasor - sample size here is a bit small, and you also have the layoff, which confuses things further, but a pair is possible. trainer does fine with layoffs.
lava man - 40% off, 35% X !!! doesn\'t look good, and the sample size is 1,496 races. sorry.
lawyer ron - last was decent, and t-p says a pair is very possible. also gets weight. oh yeah - first pletcher (& possibly first JR).
perfect drift - love the switch to gomez, and love the pace setup, but t-p same as LM\'s - small backwards move at best.
premium tap - little chance of a new top. pair or backwards move likely. i will toss the desormeaux disaster, but negative \'1\' look like best hope.
suave - little chance of a new top. pair or backwards likely.
sun king - little chance of a new top. pair looks possible though, which pattern wise, makes him more attractive than the other older horses.
super frolic - little chance of a new top. pair within reach, backwards likely.

conclusion - the patterns on the tough older horses don\'t look so tough. while you should never expect big new tops out of older horses, some of these patterns look downright ugly. i think i\'m with the 3 and 3.5 year olds.

[marcus]

Michael D , Pretty interesting stuff . Alot of what your saying is definately supported by patterns . I\'m glad to see Invasor made the 1st cut on Thoro-Pattern .

One of my impressions when looking at the TG BC Pre- Entries for the Classic was that if Invasor runs back , he\'s probably one you got to think about  . If he goes off at 20-1 +up , it seems like a reasonable shot at a price horse but at  6-1 ,  nothing special ...