ROTW

[NoCarolinaTony]

PD just proved what was known earlier in the year that West Coast 3yo crop was weak, and the Baffert mystique is not as mystical as it used to be, at least over a mile and 1/16, anyway.

NC Tony

[miff]

The start of the race seemed to compromise any chance PD had.

[marcus]

Good points everyone -  PD did get off to a lousy start and that could be for a reason . I felt PD\'s number two back was a toss but now w/ yesterday , I\'m wondering how can both PD\'s last 2 races can be toss\'s ...

[shanahan]

can someone still help me understand why the author of ROTW speaks of \"reaction\" wehn it\'s been 12 weeks since his last race?  I understand the PD 20 days...but a reaction off 12 weeks?

[Josephus]

Waited all day for the Super Derby, figuring the LA crowd would overbet the hometown horse, LR. Made my bet on SC when the odds were 4-1, wasn\'t pleased when he dropped to 5-2 at post time.  When I saw the touuble they were having trying to get him in the gate, I cancelled my bet.  Oh well.  

[Saddlecloth]

12 weeks?  

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Josephus Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Waited all day for the Super Derby, figuring the
> LA crowd would overbet the hometown horse, LR.
> Made my bet on SC when the odds were 4-1, wasn\'t
> pleased when he dropped to 5-2 at post time.  When
> I saw the touuble they were having trying to get
> him in the gate, I cancelled my bet.  Oh well.

Well, at least you were on the correct horse. I would have been alright with Lawyer Ron winning, but Strong Contender ruined my bet. I was very skeptical of the Dwyer number, but in hindsight I think you have to acquiesce to Tgraph on Dwyer day. Not sure what Tgraph will score the Super Derby but it feels like negative material.

[P-Dub]

Thanks for letting us know before post time.

It gets tiresome hearing how a horse was an easy toss after the race has been run.

[shanahan]

my bad...made a note on the analysis and totally misread it...guess that\'s why no one responded!

[marcus]

Shanahan - Don\'t know who did the ROTW , Alan might be doing it and I think he\'s doing a yomans job with it . Al\'s opinion in the ROTW\'s is solid  , I know he stands by it and the same can be said for anyone at TG - from Jerry to right on down the line .

SC\'s big unsupported top ( by previous figures ) 3 races back would alone be enough to raise a question and when it\'s followed by a 7 pt bounce and then 12 weeks rest after that , a wait and see approach is what I\'m personally comfortable with  .

Obviously alot of people bet SC and he did run very well - but I want alot for my $ 7 dollars  . Doubt whether SC made it all the way back to the big # , guessing he ran in the negative range though - maybe around a neg -O\'\'  ...

[jbelfior]

Marcus:


Assuming STRONG CONTENDER ran in ballpark of a negative 1/2 , the question then becomes how does he react to it going forward?

He has 5 weeks to the BC Classic which sounds like a lot of time. However, SC has needed more than that in the past.

Is he now a bigger, stronger, more mature colt capable of another forward move?? One can lean that way in that this is the time of year that a solid 3yo catches up with his elders. This may be particularly true with a May 15 foal.

One might guess that the next move is towards the neg 3 neighborhood. Or,one might guess that it will be the same \'ol story and SC bounces.


My guess is that you\'ll get around 12-1 to find out.



Good Luck,
Joe B.



Good Luck,
Joe B.