Computer model odds-line for ROTW

[derby1592]

Below it the \"break even\" odds line for the ROTW developed by a sheets-based computer model that uses TG figures as the primary input.

According to the model, the likely favorite is vulnerable. If you factor in weight and likely ground loss he is less than 2 points faster than Yankee Gentleman and the latter has a much stronger pattern and has a good chance of improving while Gygistar has a good chance of regressing. If you run the numbers on all the likely scenarios Yankee Gentleman comes up a little more likely to win. American Style is the other horse that is fast enough to have a shot. Of course, the most likely winner is not necessarily the best bet. The post-time odds will determine that.

I have also provided the \"break even\" $2 exacta payoffs for some of the relevant combinations.

Good luck to all.

Chris

Odds Line:

1, Yankee Gentleman, 1.9
2, American Style, 4.6
3, Nothing Flat , 16.5
4, My Man Ryan , 9.3
5, Heir D\' Twine, 27.1
6, Gygistar, 2.5

Exacta Payoffs:

1-2, $22
1-3, $47
1-4, $33
1-5, $71
1-6, $17

2-1, $34
3-1, $127
4-1, $69
5-1, $223
6-1, $18

[Linda]

The weight difference is equal to a little over one length. How much ground loss for Gygistar are you factoring in? Why do you say that Yankee Gentlemen has a much stronger pattern than Gygistar? Doesn\'t American Style have a better route pattern than Yankee Gentlemen? I\'d like to believe that Yankee Gentlemen has a good chance of winning, but am not sure I understand the raw data you are relying on.

[kev]

Yankee Gentlemen is the hoss to beat. Enough said

[derby1592]

Preston,

Let me preface by saying that there is no \"right\" or \"wrong\" but the following opinions are based on the available TG data shown on the sheets along with the results of some statistical analysis of similar past patterns in horses.

Yankee Gentleman\'s pattern: He opened up in March with a \"3\" in his first lifetime start. That is sizzling. He has since essentially paired that up in his next two starts and one of those was a route in which he was OP (so probably really a little faster). The other was a sprint in which he was setting a scorching pace. So we know that he can get the distance and can handle a hotter pace than he is likely to see today and still run his first out number of 3 (probably better with a more reasonable pace). Most stakes-quality young 3yo males can better their first lifetime start as long as they are healthy. Nothing in his line indicates physical problems. He has had more than 3 months to develop from that first out and, in fact, if you take into account the OP two races back and blistering pace in his last race, he has already shown he is capable of running faster. On Sunday, he will likely get a rail trip (let's assume there is no dead rail), a slower pace (he is the speed of the race and at the longer distance he is unlikely to be pushed hard early given the running styles of the other entrants) and he has very likely developed enough since his first start to run a new top.

Gygistar: He ran a very fast "8" early 2 then reacted and went on the shelf for 10 months. This was probably more than just bucked shins (but I am only guessing) because a horse that fast with big-time connections is probably going to be pointed to the TC if he is healthy. He comes back at three and runs a slight new top and looked very explosive going in to his next race and, in fact, he did explode jumping more than 7 points to a negative number. Classy 3yos can sometimes survive this sort of jump (about 25-30 pct of the time) and he did, pairing that number up in another sprint. However, as was hinted at in the TG analysis, two straight negative numbers that were a big jump from a prior level for an ouchy horse will eventually take their toll even on classy 3yos. In fact, he is probably twice as likely now to react than he was after the first big effort. Add to that, the question of his ability to handle the distance given that he has yet to run this far and his sire is definitely biased toward sprinters and you have a probably about a 2/3 chance for an off race and 1/3 chance for a complete X. He is giving a little over a point in weight and probably at least a point in ground loss (maybe more) to YG and if he goes back 2 pts or more and/or YG improves 2 pts or more, then YG will beat him to the wire.

American Style: His pattern is pretty strong given but the big difference between he and YG is in the amount of development. He has already developed 11 points from his 2yo top and 6 pts in the last 3 months. Compare that you YG who has yet to make a move. American Style may be at the end of the line for now and his last may even signal that he is about to tail off. YG would seem to have a lot more potential. His 3yo debut would indicate that he has the potential to improve and maybe even be a really top stakes horse.

The computer model takes all these probabilities and simulates the race over and over again many thousands of times to develop an odds line. Given the current tops and patterns, it sees YG as the most likely winner and probably the best value in the race depending on the odds.

I hope that helps. I am sure there are a lot of other opinions on this race and that is what they all are (including mine) – just opinions. But it helps to form your opinion using research and to quantify it with the help of the computer (the TG, True-Line odds tool can help you with the latter).

Good luck playing the race.

Chris

[Linda]

If inside speed holds up tomorrow the way it did today that should help Yankee Gentleman\'s chances. The explanation of your analysis was very good and very much appreciated.

[MO]

Granted, I said I\'d refrain from posting a while back, but this race is a no brainer.
You bet Yankee Gent to win at 3-1 or higher. If you need a saver, the fav over YG at $20.00, otherwise its a boring, 2 horse race, not worthy of a bet.

BTW, another great ride from Shaun today. Glad I refrained from betting.

Mark

[Mall]

One possible way of looking at Yankee\'s line is to wonder why there hasn\'t been any improvement in any of his starts. Granted, he was off poorly in the 5/12 race, which is the only other time he started from the 1 hole, which may or may not be significant. He\'s had problems at the gate in 2 of his 4 lifetime starts. Sure he\'s shown speed, but not the kind of speed that Gygistar is capable of showing if JR chooses to run with Yankee early. Perhaps when Yankee faces fractions like he faced in his last race he simply is not capable of continuing on in the same fashion as when things are slower early. Yankee does get 6lbs from Gygistar today, but that\'s only 2 more than he got last time and it certainly didn\'t make any difference in that race.

Gygistar obviously made a huge jump after the 3/23 race, but one might reach the conclusion that there was a reason for the jump, namely the addition of lasix. His small fwd move after the big jump may mean that he\'s capable of continuing at this level for at least one more race, ala WE. Perhaps the time off was because of physical problems, but perhaps it was because he needed time to mature. Hennig & Evans are known for their patience with young horses. Given the lack of any speed to his inside other than Yankee, one might also conclude that Gygistar is going to get an even better trip tomorrow than he had in the Riva Ridge. You could certainly argue that any ground loss in this small field is likely to be minimal.

I didn\'t think Gygistar\'s 4-1 & Yankee\'s 6-5 odds last time made any sense. At the same time, I would not be entirely surprised if they were co-favs or Yankee was a very slight fav. I doubt very much that either is going to go off at anywhere near the odds people seem to be looking for. As I see it, Gygistar\'s fair odds are slightly above even, and Yankee\'s are slightly above 2-1, which means that Yankee may very well be the underlay tomorrow.