THORO VS SHEETS? AN ACID TEST

[TGJB]

Miff-- that\'s the problem, all right. By the way, you should try this some time-- go through a card, and look at the last 5 races on every horse, and see what the percentage was of pairs (5th back to 4th back, 4th back to 3rd back, etc.). I think you will find it is much smaller than you think, all other issues aside.

Tony-- like I said, I\'m sure statistical guys have better ideas for testing than I do-- I would hope so, since they teach college courses in statistics.

But I do think the study I described would have some relevance (and yes, we would not count races run on other surfaces, and make other adjustments). But in general, recent races are more important than those further back, and the other factors should wash out equally for both sides in the long run.

Bottom line, if a reasonably accurate study can be done I would love to see it. We would kill Ragozin, and I\'m convinced that Beyer would beat them, even without ground and weight. Miff is right about the differences getting bigger, and it\'s not because I\'ve changed anything.

[miff]

JB,


I did not look at the pair thing the way you suggest, but I will. What I did do for app six months was to compare pairs on TG,Rags,Beyer(adjusted)for the same runners.

The results showed the most pairs were on TG with Beyer(adjusted) second and Rags third.One interesting thing I found was that Beyer unadjusted can appear up to 7 lenghts slower than TG but equal after adjustment(mostly happened in TG buried figs).Incidentally, I believe that naked Beyers can be very misleading on occasion.

What this all means is not very clear right now but the more I probe, the closer I feel I am coming to solving this from my viewpoint.

Mike

[jimbo66]

The comparison of the products is not going to happen, at least not with the consent of Len and the Rags folks.  I posted on their web site after the Saratoga meet last year that I would like to do the comparison, but was looking for a Rags user to \"partner with\".  I was betting the horses every day back then, and wasn\'t going to purchase two sets of sheets.  Plus, with a regular t-graph user and a regular rags user doing the study, there would be less room for skewing the numbers.  I, for one, was open to any conclusion that the study produced.  I think I am using the right numbers, but if the study proved otherwise, then so be it.  Instead of generating any intellectual debate at all on the Rags board, Len took a potshot at my methodology, without proposing any alternative methodology of his own.  Some other posters over there gave some unintelligent responses as well, but nobody stepped up and was interested.  The Rags marketing strategy seems to be to make believe that Tgraph doesn\'t exist and try to convince their customer base of this as well.  

[NoCarolinaTony]

Miff,

What do you mean (so I understand) when you say adjusted Beyer\'s (ie you factor in ground loss somehow?)

NC Tony

[miff]

NC Tony,

Yes, ground and weight shifts from start to start. It\'s a fairly accurate comparison 90% of the time, the other 10% they disagree by quite a bit.

Mike