This and That

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Uncle Buck Wrote:
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> jbelfior Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > First to pick and first under the wire.
> >
> >
> >
> > Good Luck,
> > joe B.
>
>
> Really Joe? You think he\'ll be first under the
> wire? Is this the same AP Warrior that ran a
> DREADFUL 4th to Cuase to Beleive in the El Camino
> Real? I can\'t see this one winning...But I don\'t
> know a whole lot either.
>
> If you like AP at 15-1 don\'t you have to LOVE CTB
> at 50-1 and likely to drift up from there? CTB
> could be the Closing Argument of this year\'s
> Derby...
>
> Food for Thought I suppose...

Cause to Believe hasn\'t been training especially well at Churchill. Hollendorfer said he\'s not a work horse, but if you scan his works Hollendorfer may be seeing things with Rose Colored Glasses. He\'s thrown some decent works in out West. The bottom line is I don\'t think those backing this horse, including Hollendorfer, have a very good grasp on the pace of the Illinois Derby. It wasn\'t pace that beat him. 2 better horses beat him.

I\'m hoping A.P.Valentine gets bet to single digits. If he hits any part of the board at all, wherever he hits I\'m dead on that bet, because I certainly am not including him.

kev Wrote:
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> I think it\'s bad for LR and BD now there\'s about 5
> other speed horses to the inside, they either stay
> with them and go wide or they drop in behind,
> meaning they will be off the pace where BD won\'t
> like it.

Provided the inside horses get clean breaks outside is not ideal in a race with lots of speed. If they are not fast enough to clear, they must tuck in or go wide. I can foresee them being four abreast in the turn despite the long run to it. Certainly not ideal if you\'re going fast early and trying to get 10 poles.

RICH Wrote:
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> Maybe it\'s the -3 (40% chance per JB) finally
> getting to him, or the 3 big ones ina row. We
> shall soon see, hey the line looks ok depending on
> that final number, however, if he goes at 6 or 7-1
> he is still underlaid.

Works are important, if he\'s suddenly off thats major, but I wouldn\'t put a whole lot of stock in Mike Welsch\'s impressions. Look for second opinions on those same works. There was some moisture in the track this morning and a couple more gallops to go. Lets wait and see.

Bally Ache Wrote:
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> Much ado about very little.  This game is
> difficult and complicated enough without making it
> more so.  Look where the starting gate is and look
> where the first turn is.  Game over.
>
> The people on this board seem to be, by and large,
> pretty sophisticated horseplayers.  I can\'t
> believe any of you would get off a horse you
> really liked because he drew Post 1 or Post 20 or
> anything in between.
>
> The show is coming on in about twenty minutes and
> I don\'t think I\'ll stay home to watch it.  The
> trainers will make all the right noises and say
> they want something in the middle but none of them
> are likely to scratch unless they\'re asked to
> start in the parking lot.

The posts can be critical, provided the track is fair as to path.

Disadvantaged:

Brother Derek
Lawyer Ron
Flashy Bull

Advantaged

Sinister Minister
Keyed Entry

The rest of the post positions don\'t on their face appear to add or detract. However will say this. Speed to the left of me...speed to the right....Here I am stuck in the middle in glue. Guess who that applies to?

[big18741]

Agree on the 1,4 17 and 18.

I\'m thinking the 11 is not going to enjoy his trip at all.Can\'t see how Desormeaux gets him in the clear in his comfort zone.

Won\'t be easy on the 8 either.He\'s going to have to run a massive race given the setup.